American Fortune Life
Chapter 285: Big short
An excellent investment plan is inseparable from a process, "Hypothesis-Demonstration-Fundraising-Bet-Wait-Harvest".
Now pointing to the side of the projection screen showing charts and data from surveys during this time, everyone began to demonstrate the possibility of the boss's assumption.
"We hired several investigators to invest in real estate projects in various regions in various states. The feedback was surprising, because there was no money to pay bank loans, and many houses were overgrown. People went empty, and even the majority of houses in one block were occupied by homeless people. The owner of the original loan to buy a house has long been missing.
Even so, those sales agents still desperately encouraged people who could not afford to pay to buy a house. Can you imagine that you can buy a house without any mortgage or formalities? There are many speculators in the market who get a few houses with zero down payment and want to change hands to earn the difference. With the decline of the real estate market, the houses in these people's hands cannot be sold at all, and they have the ability to repay bank loans. You can only smash it into your hands or simply run away and throw this burden on the bank. "
Everyone in the conference room looked solemnly listening to Alvitre's introduction. Every piece of data was displayed. Every overgrown weed and the barren photos of the dried up swimming pools showed everyone a problem. On the verge of collapse, when all the covered debts and problems are exposed to the world, that is, when the bubble bursts, the crisis is full of opportunities.
Everyone's heart started to tremble, and they looked at the first small boss on the face who looked indifferent. The boss who discovered this problem early might be the biggest beneficiary. As for this, is it the ordinary people and the people of other countries? Nightmares, that's not what they should consider.
"We need a suitable tool for shorting real estate, otherwise the risk and return will be extremely mismatched. Boss, are you looking at cds as a financial tool?" Bardstone has been convinced by all the data presented. Eloquently, remembering the night when I first met the boss, it was the first time he asked himself whether he knew Michael Bray. Did the boss notice the real estate market problem at that time?
"Yes, that's cds!" It wasn't Andy who answered him, but Arvitelli, who had changed another projected picture, and everyone's eyes turned to Al again.
"Everyone here should be familiar with this cds. After all, in the past few months, this financial instrument and its inventor, Michael Bray, have been the laughing stock of Wall Street, but today I want to tell everyone that this is also a risk. -Financial instruments with near-perfect returns. "Speaking of the laser pointer in his hand, he began to explain on the projection screen. Of course, most people can understand.
"Take the assets of the boss as an example. With a principal of 500 million U.S. dollars, you can purchase 6 billion U.S. dollars for BBB-grade CDS products. 10 million US dollars, and this money can also be stored in the bank before the payment of 5% interest, that is, 30 million US dollars of interest, so as long as the first year of spending 30 million US dollars, plus 10 million US dollars in commissions, 500 million US dollars The product loses up to 8% a year, but theoretically can make 1200%! "
Just as Arvitelli's words fell, Andy stood up with his hands on the table, his eyes glanced across everyone with excitement and shouted with excitement: "This is the best deal ever! Because it is absolutely impossible to support This year! "
To be honest, Andy was almost killed by the prophet who brought him through! After all, he was a program ape in the previous life, knowing about the financial market is about nothing, knowing the subprime mortgage crisis, knowing that the US real estate collapses, and of course he has browsed a movie that has made people feel dull and boring.
It was because of this movie that he almost didn't hang him. After recalling this movie with supernatural state, after all, the film was adapted based on real people and real things. He really took it seriously and started to think that he invested 500 million US dollars. 07, 08 busy two years can earn up to 2 billion US dollars. The opportunity for this financial crisis is not great, but it is still acceptable.
But in the office, before Arvitelli showed his losses and profits to him, Nima, his liver was trembling, 6 billion. This money was a bite to the bank in 2008. Ten billion really It's not a dream, it's all fake without excitement, so he will gain and lose, and he will worry about his opponent's counterattack.
Andy understands very well that after he has pressed all his net worth to make chips, the rest can only wait and torment. An object with very great momentum must undergo very fierce resistance before it can change its original trend. It takes longer to turn around, but fortunately he knows how long it takes.
Don't think that the default rate has increased significantly, and housing prices can start to turn around. This can make Andy shorts make money. They will also face the final resistance of the entire system. This resistance is extremely strong, and even makes many short people doubt it. Whether his decision was correct or not, he died in the darkest moment before dawn.
When the crisis finally breaks out, it does not mean success. Before the money is available, it is not a success, because there will be many forces jumping out to put pressure on individuals and institutions with cds in their hands to redeem them to reduce bank losses. Of course, these pressures are not a problem for Andy, and he can completely ignore them.
Everyone looked at the young boss with greedy eyes flashing in the eyes of a hungry wolf who chose to kill others. They couldn't help but feel the ambition and coldness of the young man who always smiled with confidence and sunshine in his weekdays.
A nightmare for ordinary Americans may even trigger the world ’s financial crisis as an opportunity to grab their own wealth. Of course, they are all Wall Street people. No one is not greedy, and the slightest emotion is just tears of a crocodile. Andy does not even have the slightest sympathy for the people. Nima, Lao Tzu ’s soul comes from the heavens. Whoever cares about the lives of ordinary people and earns money legally, no one can blame it. However, everyone here When looking at the little boss, there was a kind of awe.
In fact, there are many people who are in danger of bursting the real estate bubble. It can also be said that it is tens of thousands. This is not a joke. In 2006, there were at least tens of thousands of Americans, including real estate agents, loan auditors, and so on. Increasingly, buyers are smelling the coming crisis, but there is no way for these people to directly short the US real estate market.
Because CDs will no longer be sold on the open market, ordinary investors will not even reach the threshold.
"Bud, you can solve the ISDA threshold problem, isn't there a problem?" Andy asked, looking at Budstone, who was thinking about something.
"There is no problem, it can be solved by one phone call. Before, we were not interested in these junk bonds. After making a big profit in the futures market, the International Swap and Derivatives Association sent us an invitation letter." Bardez Tong nodded in response.
"That's good. After all, we haven't passed the ISDA threshold and we can't trade CDS! In addition to all the people in this seat, except the main member of my think tank, the rest is the senior management of Liberty City Investment Company. It is to let everyone understand my intentions and plans, and then implement them. In the next period of time, I need you to earn and withdraw funds to the greatest extent. In one month, we will invest all the funds in one month. On the cds, at the same time, it can be considered to inform all of you in advance, I hope you can prepare early to avoid losses in the upcoming storm, everyone, it depends on you! "
Andy watched everyone leave the conference room with a sinking face, and smiled at the staying Alvitre and Bardstone: "Let's go to my office for a cup of coffee. There are some things to discuss . "