Big Time 1958
v1 Chapter 799: make a plan
Serov, who had just returned to Lubyanka, first issued an order from the First General Administration, mainly to deal with the problems in Yugoslavia, thinking about the political situation in Yugoslavia after Tito's death, we must find a way to calm the problem children of this socialist camp, and return to Yugoslavia. Should be on a normal track.
This normal track is to join the Warsaw Pact and the Mutual Economics Conference. If Yugoslavia wants to continue a peaceful life, it must be under the protection of the Soviet Union, there is no doubt. Although Tito may not want to do this, it doesn't matter, this stumbling block can be defeated by time, and Serov will definitely win under the cover of time.
What does it matter whether it is a victory or not? Didn't Stalin say that the victor is not condemned in any way...
"One of the foundations of Yugoslavia is the certain weakening of the Serbs. Tito wants to play the balance beam like Bismarck, but don't forget the fate of Germany after Bismarck's death. We have ready-made people who can be used. Covic and the 40,000 Serbian Communist Party cadres who were cleaned up at the beginning. At this stage, we must first act carefully. After Tito's death, the plan was officially started. The neighboring countries around Yugoslavia are all Warsaw Pact countries. As long as we are careful, the success rate is still very high. High!" Shelov formulated a general framework of activities for the First General Administration to prevent improper operation.
"Understood, Chairman, as usual, bury the nails first and wait for the change of time?" The director of the First General Bureau nodded, none of the cadres in the foreign intelligence work were not convinced by Serov, which was based on success.
The incident in Yugoslavia is just an episode. For the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia is the last country in Eastern Europe that is not obedient. The relationship between Romania's Ceausescu and the Soviet Union can be regarded as generally harmonious. So Yugoslavia is just an isolated country, and even an explosion would not necessarily cause any harm to the Soviet Union.
The worst result is that Serov held high the stick of limited sovereignty theory, and asked Ustinov to assemble the Warsaw Pact army to invade Czechoslovakia. I believe the problem can be solved within a few days. Unlike Yugoslavia, which was surrounded by the Warsaw Pact, the situation in the Middle East is a bit intertwined. The triangular strategy constructed by Serov, in response to the two-pillar strategy of the United States, can only be said to have an advantage in military power, and this advantage is not large enough to war. Once the machine is activated, the enemy chieftains fly to the point of annihilation.
The Middle East was much worse for the Soviet Union than a separate Yugoslavia. The thing that disgusts Serov the most is that the incidents in Iran and Afghanistan are likely to break out at the same time. Facing two things at the same time is not a good thing for any country. Germany knows to try to avoid two-front warfare as much as possible, although not once. success.
"For the first time in more than 20 years, it seems that we have to face up to the problems in the south. There are Iran's problems and Afghanistan's problems, which can be discussed separately, or the two countries can be discussed together, then!" Shelov looked at himself The surrounding spy chiefs glanced at each other and spread their hands, "Let's start..."
On the chairs on both sides of the , there are two first vice-chairmen, two vice-chairmen, directors of important general bureaus, and members of the KGB presidium. If there is a bomb in the meeting, the most vicious group in the entire Soviet strategic offensive will be reimbursed as a whole.
The unstable situation in Iran is well known. Since last year, there have been more demonstrations in Iran than in ten years combined. As for Afghanistan, insurgency in some provinces is also worrying enough if both countries have problems at the same time. For the Soviet Union, it was simply a disaster. From the Caucasus to Central Asia, the pressure on the southern border of the Soviet Union would increase unprecedentedly.
In this case, the Soviet Union should not talk about disarmament, and it is estimated that it will expand its military soon. In fact, this kind of assumption is not the worst case. If China can't bear the loneliness, it will cause trouble for the Soviet Union. The achievements of the ten-year strategic offensive will be lost, and the Soviet Union may even be beaten back to its original state, a Soviet Union that is involved in facing these problems. Once it encounters the United States, which is full of horsepower and desperate, it is unknown whether it can withstand it.
pull one hair and move the whole body, this is the helplessness of the Soviet Union. Sending troops is the last resort. Historically, the Soviet Union killed 800,000 militants from the entire Peace Religion world at the cost of 15,000 deaths, and at the same time caused the deaths of 2 million ordinary Afghans. This kind of exchange is much better than the US military in the 21st century, but it is completely useless, and eventually has to withdraw from Afghanistan.
The best way to deal with the Peace Religion is to let them kill themselves until they kill the most extreme part. But in the absence of external support, the same situation is extreme, not extreme killing. Direct interference is not acceptable, and it is not acceptable to let it go.
"Let no matter what is not in line with the tradition of our anti-revolutionary workers, direct intervention may bring ourselves in. This is still our neighbor, and we must find a way to intervene conditionally." Serov concluded at the end.
Protests in Iran have started last year, with devout Iranians using their “network of mosques” almost entirely, but for Iran, which has “more than 15 million adults,” the demonstrators are only a minority. Demonstrators have demonstrated every 40 days in mourning for those who had died earlier, and each demonstration resulted in casualties until moderate religious leader Shariat Madari called for protesters to calm down and stay at home. In an attempt to appease the moderate clergy, the king fired the leaders of Savak and promised elections the following year.
Although this wave of protests throughout Iran has come nearly a year later than history, the shock to the Soviet Union is still huge. The Soviet Union’s vision is not limited to Iran, but the possibility of this revolution spreading. Both Iraq and Afghanistan are neighbors to Iran. Compared with Iraq, which has been operating steadily for many years, the Afghan People's Party has just come to power and has not yet had enough resilience. This is why the Soviet Union disliked Amin, who advocated tough land reform and eradication of local forces and tribes.
"It's a bit difficult. If we support the Pahlavi dynasty, the Americans may be the ones who can do the best in the end. The Pahlavi boy has always been pro-American. We have no reason to support him." First Vice President Bobkov General Shaking his head slightly.
"But Khomeini's religious color is too strong. Once it affects the surrounding area, it is likely to completely destroy our hard work in the Middle East for decades, and even affect the Caucasus region of our country." Another KGB first vice-chairman General Chebrikov was equally at a loss.
Although it looks like choosing a side, in fact, standing on that side does not see the benefit to the Soviet Union. For a while, these time-tested spy chiefs could not see who should be chosen.
"The most surprising thing to me is that Khomeini has been in Paris, and he can even remotely command the Iranian believers. Peace Religion is really not a good thing, and he dares to fight against the government." Shelov snorted coldly, "Our domestic comrades , the suppression in this area must not be relaxed, and when religious voices appear in any region, we must not be soft-hearted.”
"Yes...!" General Bobkov, General Chebrikov, General Zinev, and General Tsvigon assured at the same time.
Shelov covered his head. He has planted nails in all countries, and Iran is no exception. But when things come to an end, no matter which side you stand on, the benefits to the Soviet Union are not great. What is good for the Soviet Union is even more beneficial to the United States. A choice that is harmful to the United States is actually harmful to the Soviet Union. It is worthy of being a cancer of mankind. Such a difficult choice.
If it is a military intervention, there are also several options. The first option is a full-scale invasion. In this way, the Soviet Union will directly solve the source of cholera. The best case is to limit the battlefield to Iran. The second is a partial invasion, copying Stalin's original plan and occupying the entire southern Azerbaijan region in northern Iran.
But the problem is that the former needs a lot of people to die. Once the Soviet Union invades in an all-round way, Iran will inevitably be unanimous to the outside world. The weirdness of the Republican Artillery Party is still very rare. Shelov does not believe that the Soviet Union is so lucky to meet.
In addition to the hostility of Iran, part of the invasion is the population problem of Azerbaijan. South Azerbaijan is much larger than Soviet Azerbaijan in both population and area. There will suddenly be a population of nearly 10 million in the Soviet Union. These people are still pacifists. The Azerbaijanis in the Soviet Union will become a minority and will be assimilated quickly.
Occupying South Azerbaijan is a bad move. Once you succeed and regret it later, the Azerbaijanis will quickly become the third largest ethnic group in the Soviet Union with a population of over 10 million, second only to the Ukrainians.
When Serov was thinking silently by himself, needles could be heard in the entire conference room. No one disturbed his thinking at this time, otherwise the consequences would be very serious.
Standing on Pahlavi's side, on Khomeini's side, and occupying South Azerbaijan, several choices appeared one after another in Serov's head. In the end, all these options disappeared, and the 21st-century Syrian war model appeared in Serov's mind, fighting proxy wars, turning the whole of Iran into a meat grinder, and letting them kill themselves until the winner was determined.
"The power we cultivated in Iran is mainly concentrated in the gathering areas of Azerbaijan, right?" Shelov saw his subordinates nodded and said, "Then let these forces work together to keep the peace of Azerbaijan and isolate us from Iran geographically. Open, the province will blow us up."
"At a time when the strength of both sides is not much, come an unsuccessful assassination and detonate a civil war in Iran. Prepare Iraq and Afghanistan for refugees to escape. Let the Iranians kill each other." Serov said decisively. (To be continued~^~)