Chapter 546 Cocoon of Pain

In game theory, concentrating on active offense does not mean being able to master the initiative. The key is to understand the principle of information asymmetry to take action, that is, to strictly keep your actions confidential and not to disclose information to the other party. Once the deployment of actions is known by the other party It will cause the opponent to concentrate its forces on defense, which will bring resistance to the offense.

  Therefore, many people choose to release smoke bombs, confuse their opponents by propagating some false news, and force them to make wrong decisions. Take the South China Sea bubble, for instance, the United Kingdom has clearly given no control over South America, but it has given the South China Sea the "monopoly" of business in South America. The Nanhai Company released a smoke screen again. They reached a settlement with Spain and obtained trading rights. The "leeks" bought junk stocks frantically. If the Nanhai Company went bankrupt at that time, the shareholders would use their life savings to buy a bunch of waste paper. Fortunately at that time Many lawmakers also bought the shares of the South China Sea Company. It only survived for a hundred years and finally closed down.

The most critical step for subprime loans is to turn the derivative currency generated by the loan contract into bonds, and then let the investment bank buy it, and the investment bank cheats according to the credit rating. No, it is to let the hedge fund gambler buy it. Of course, the fund manager will not Lend the money to a plumber to buy a house. However, he is the investment bank that gave the money. The CDO he bought was generated by ABS, not just MBS. There is a gap in information. The real game is often not the next move that the two parties’ information is clear. A fair duel, this can be described as the "scheming" of the thirty-six tactics.

If   is common, there is no doubt, yin is in yang, not in yang. People and things that are often seen often do not arouse suspicion. Hide the secret in the open, not against the open form. Very public things often contain very secret things.

People will follow what the public agrees, deny their opinions by default, and will not subjectively think about the meaning of events, just like a herd, those investors who have not formed their own expectations or have not obtained first-hand information, they will invest according to other To change their behavior. A flock is a very scattered organization. Usually, when we are together, we blindly rush from side to side, but once one sheep moves, other sheep will rush forward without thinking, regardless of whether there may be wolves in front of them or not far away. There is better grass everywhere.

  Following psychology can easily lead to blind obedience, and blind obedience tends to fall into a scam or fail.

But the herd mentality is not completely bad. Following the right person can create amazing success. In the 1970s, the pure-blooded aristocrats were so enthusiastic that they were following the right person. Following Voldemort is just as good as following. Like real estate, it is completely irrational. If someone tells the family that following Voldemort is a bad idea, the parents are the first to object. After killing the fairies, the Death Eaters robbed the fairies of their money, and then divided the money among the downfallen pure blood. What a "generous" Voldemort was.

This kind of enthusiasm makes people not even afraid of dementors. Even if the Minister of Magic Harold Minkan sends additional dementors to Azkaban, he can’t stop it. In this wave of national enthusiasm, I want to keep my mind sober. It is very difficult. Even if you have understood it, your relatives and friends are still not sober. Instead, they do "enlightenment" work for you. Soon you will be assimilated by your relatives and friends, and you will be relieved to receive those "subsidies" from unknown sources.

The school is isolated from the outside world, and the information it receives is different from the outside. When Voldemort rose for the second time, because of the death of Albus Dumbledore, the adults almost gave up resistance, only the DA members in the school. They are still resisting in the form of guerrillas. They have given the teachers and students confidence in the school that Harry Potter will return, and there is a chance to turn defeat into victory. Coupled with the broadcast of Potter's Lookout, a small number of people are still working for the Order of the Phoenix. Helping with Muggles. At this time, people have forgotten that Muggles arrested wizards and burned torture in the Middle Ages, and they were responsible for the spread of the Black Death. It was so touching.

The pro-Muggle Albus Dumbledore deleted this part of history. Instead, the ghost Binns talked about the Giants War. Harry was exposed to the news of the Witch Trials outside of school. He lived in the Broken Cauldron in the third grade. I often go to an ice cream shop to eat free ice cream. Since Albus became the principal, the students have become "innocent". After all, Albus's dream is to create a world where Muggles and wizards live together peacefully.

If a person has not even heard of derivative currencies and hedge funds, and blindly follow the trend of investment just watching house prices rise, this situation is the same as the essence of the South China Sea bubble investors, they are all "leeks" to be harvested, Isa Knewton was harvested and lost 20,000 pounds. How could it be impossible for senior intellectuals to be harvested?

Follow the trend all the time, mainly because of the asymmetry of information. The art of war is like knowing yourself and knowing that the enemy is alive in battle. The more you know, the more accurate you can make accurate judgments. Another is intuition. How can Harry have been a warrior? He taught How do the students use the "except you weapon", their eyes look to the door from time to time, as if they have been aware of them, so the two immediately left the Dark Arts Defense class classroom.

  "They called him'Professor'." Pomona pretended to be relaxed and said, "How do you feel?"

  Severus ignored her.

  "I felt this way when the children called you'Professor' for the first time. Time flies so fast." She sighed.

  Thirty-four years, her appearance has not changed much, and the younger Slytherin boy already seems to be her father.

The same is true for Liwei. Human life is very short in the eyes of mixed-blood magical creatures. The life span of a dog is only ten years. If too much emotion is put on a dog, it will be uncomfortable when it dies, which involves too many memories and feelings. , So magical creatures will deliberately keep a distance from human beings, so they will easily become bystanders, and the problems of some authorities and fans will be cleared by the bystanders.

"How are you?"

   "I never doubted the old fool's judgment." Severus whispered, "I never doubted that Potter might not be a Horcrux."

   "This is normal." Pomona said, "When did he miss it?"

  "A person who has never made a mistake, if he makes a mistake, he will make more serious mistakes than a person who makes mistakes often. The Slytherin locket he sacrificed his life in exchange for is a fake."

  Severus remembered what Pomona said, and she could also ask Harry what Dumbledore said to him at the time.

   Regulus used to worship Voldemort like many young people of that era, but he finally woke up.

Sirius ran away from home to irritate his mother. Regulus’s situation was different. He was like the only young man in the Black family who dared to tell his family that continuing to speculate in real estate was seeking his own death. If he said it, Others would treat him as a fool, so he could only keep silent, and even forbid Kreacher to tell Walbuga about his whereabouts. She had been in that old house waiting for her son to come back, even if she died. The soul is attached to the portrait.

   Finding Regulus back is like obsessiveness, she doesn't know why, she is obviously not a woman from the Black family.

  She and Narcissa can be very good friends, if there is no Severus, but who told them to make an unbreakable vow.

  Even if Cici died, this oath is still valid.

  It seemed that Bella felt that it was more painful for him to let her die than to let Severus die.

  Albus once said: "Come on me."

  No matter what it was, Albus felt that the pain was directed at him directly, and it was easier than witnessing.

  Unfortunately, that is an extravagant hope.

  So an unbreakable vow cannot be taken casually. It is no wonder that a good old man like Arthur was so angry that he beat Fred.

  (End of this chapter)