Chapter 633 Time will tell

   Mountain!

   Liu Qingshan still has some reputation at UCLA, he can be regarded as a star student, so many people know him.

   Fortunately, college students in the United States generally don't disturb other people's lives, so Liu Qingshan basically doesn't get harassed.

   After walking to the front, Liu Qingshan first bowed to Professor Peter, then nodded to Soros and others, and finally came to Rogers.

  Rodgers stood up with a smile and shook hands with Liu Qingshan: "Welcome, Mountain, I know you are under a lot of pressure now, can you still hold it?"

Liu Qingshan also shrugged his shoulders and looked at the three people opposite him. In addition to Soros, there were also Buffett, the later stock god, and Dalio, who designed the "Pure Alpha" fund. Whoever it was, would definitely feel the pressure .

  However, Liu Qingshan said calmly: "Mr. Rogers, a great man in our country once said that all enemies are paper tigers."

   "Okay, courage is commendable." Rogers took the lead in clapping his hands.

  But the students below didn’t buy it: What, they look down on the stock market, isn’t that going to smash our jobs?

  The college students here all want to work **** Wall Street after graduation.

  When Liu Qingshan sat down beside Rogers, Professor Peter began to host, and typed out the topic of today's forum with slides:

  It was designed to look like a seesaw, with a money bag on one side and a caricature person sitting on the other.

   "The topic we are going to discuss here today is about the stock market. The positive side is represented by Mr. Soros, and he is optimistic about the development of the stock market."

   "The opposing side is represented by Mr. Rogers, who is pessimistic about the stock market."

   "Today, both of them are going to have a debate here." Professor Peter made a brief opening speech, and then raised his hand to signal to the square.

  The students below also began to listen with great interest, and some even took out their small notebooks, preparing to memorize key points.

  They thought, maybe they can save their pocket money and buy one or two lots of stocks, maybe they can earn a Christmas gift for their girlfriend.

   And the few reporters present today also feel that this trip is worthwhile: this kind of controversial topic is the most suitable for news.

   What's more, none of those sitting on the stage are famous, of course, except for the little guy named Mountain.

  Soros, Buffett, Dalio, Rogers, these predators, usually want to interview them, they spend hundreds of thousands of dollars every minute, and have no time to talk to you.

   Dalio was the first to speak. He is the founder of Bridgewater Fund. He has always wanted to build his own trading decision-making system, just like the unique cheats in martial arts novels, and is a representative of academic technology.

  Dalio unhurriedly sorted out a few pages: "I have a survey report here, in the form of a questionnaire."

   “On January 23 of this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 115 points and then rose 60 points. We can call it a flash drop.”

   "However, in the questionnaire I organized later, only 8% of the 1,000 stockholders who chose words such as 'fear', 'falling', and 'stock crash' chose how they felt about the market on that day."

   "Ninety percent of the votes that chose words such as 'profit', 'crazy', and 'increasing positions' accounted for 90%, and the remaining 2% were invalid votes."

  Dalio showed these sets of data with slides, and then said: "What does this show? It shows that stockholders are very optimistic about the stock market. They believe in the market and will never follow suit and sell stocks."

  He finally concluded: "Without a large-scale sell-off, the so-called big stock market crash is of course impossible."

   Immediately there was warm applause below. As the saying goes, without investigation, there is no right to speak. This Mr. Dalio speaks with data instead of the so-called "prediction", which is still very convincing.

   Rogers, sitting opposite Dalio, looked at Liu Qingshan with a smile: "Man, how are you going to refute him?"

  Since they are partners fighting side by side, they are of course buddies. Of course, Rogers will not despise Liu Qingshan because of his age.

  Liu Qingshan shook his head: "Time will tell."

  Anyway, there is less than a week before the stock market crash.

   "Time is indeed the best answer, but we should still say something, otherwise, we won't be able to step down."

  Rogers simply picked up Liu Qingshan's paper, turned a few pages, and found a paragraph of text in it to read:

   "This is one of Mr. Mountain's papers, and I'll make a small excerpt."

  “From a psychological point of view, people generally have a herd mentality. When the stock market soars, people will frantically invest money in it.”

   "Similarly, when the stock market plummets, panic will spread like a plague, and everyone just wants to sell."

  “This kind of investment psychology, we can tentatively call it the herd effect. Where the leading sheep goes, the following sheep will follow.”

   "So Mr. Dalio's questionnaire, although true, may not be effective."

   Rogers gently closed the paper, and raised it in his hand, looking very satisfied.

  The students in the audience also made low voices of discussion. The herd effect is not popular at the moment, so everyone feels very novel after listening to it.

  Many people conceive a group of sheep in their minds, walking aimlessly on the grassland, being led east by the head sheep for a while, and then north by the head sheep for a while, the picture is really funny.

  But it is very vivid. Under the suggestion of herd mentality, aren’t those stockholders like a group of mindless sheep?

   And Soros Buffett and others sitting in front, aren’t they the leaders?

   Obviously, the three people on Soros' side were also aware of this problem. The three people looked at each other, and then shrugged their shoulders.

  Soros still had a childlike innocence, bleating, and the atmosphere in the lecture hall was much more relaxed.

   At this time, Buffett spoke to Rogers: "Jim, Mr. Mountain's paper sounds very good, can you show me?"

   "No, I can give you a copy when the debate is over, but for now, it's my weapon." Rogers said half-jokingly.

  He really valued this thesis, it was the feeling of Yu Boya meeting Zhong Ziqi.

  Buffett nodded: "Well, I hope your weapon will not be detonated, otherwise..."

  He didn't continue to give the answer, but those who study economics have all studied the great stock market crash in the United States in 1929, which triggered an economic crisis that lasted more than ten years, and its power is comparable to mushroom bombs.

Anyway, it was Buffett's turn to speak, and he continued: "What I want to talk about is the change in the stock trading model. As we all know, traditional stock trading is a special person on the trading board of the exchange. Write down the stock quotes in sequence."

  “But after entering the 1980s, all these were replaced by computers, which were more timely and faster, which undoubtedly made the stock market full of vitality.”

   "With the popularization of personal computers, maybe a few years later, you can buy and sell stocks while sitting in front of your own computer at home..."

   Hearing this, Liu Qingshan was secretly convinced: a big bull is a big bull, and the prediction of the future is very accurate.

  It’s just that the current Buffett probably hasn’t raised his own realm to the realm of “I’m afraid when others are greedy, and I’m greedy when others are fearful”.

   Otherwise, he should be feeling the fear by now instead of sitting here talking.

  Buffett continued: "Based on the powerful computing power of computers, all risks in the stock market can be calculated in advance. For example, I designed automatic trading for computers."

  "When the stock price falls to the risk zone I set, it will be sold automatically. In this way, there is no risk..."

   When the stock **** finished his point of view, the students below naturally applauded sincerely.

   This time, Rogers simply picked up Liu Qingshan's paper, pretending to flip through a few pages: "Oh, this is a great arsenal, and you can always use the right weapon to fight back."

   "Please listen to the discussion in this paragraph, which also refers to the application of computers."

"Oh, these professional data, in my opinion, is simply a book, I can only say the conclusion directly, Mr. Mountain believes that the current computer speed is too slow, when there is too much data, it will be like a traffic jam on the road , causing a delay."

  After Rogers finished reading, he smiled and looked at Liu Qingshan again: "In that case, I'm afraid I have to trouble Mr. Mountain to play that song "The Last of the Mohicans" again."

  There was a burst of laughter from the audience, but many people were shaking their heads: they all knew the speed of the computer, how could there be a traffic jam?

  Wall Street has been using computers for several years. People have only seen its convenience and speed, and there have been no traffic jams.

  This Mr. Mountain is clearly an alarmist.

  If Liu Qingshan hadn’t been sitting on the stage and hadn’t said anything, I’m afraid he would have been greeted with boos.

  The students can maintain enough respect for those bosses, but they are not polite to Liu Qingshan, a rookie who has just entered school.

  Soros finally made a statement and concluded: "Our economy is recovering, the stock market is rising, all of this is so prosperous."

   "Everyone knows that someone nicknamed me the short-seller of Wall Street. Even I have full confidence in the stock market. So what else do you have to worry about?"

  His words were very provocative, which attracted the applause from below, and it lasted for a long time.

  Obviously, the following students and most of the stockholders also hold the same opinion.

  Wait until everyone's eyes were on Rogers, waiting for him to make a final statement, Rogers raised the paper in his hand again:

   "Let me list several sets of figures mentioned in the paper. In 1985 and 1986, the economic growth was 2.8% and 2.5% respectively."

   "Consumption is growing at a rate of 4% per year, and residents' fixed investment in housing is growing at 10% per year."

   "Gentlemen, we are all engaged in economics, and what this means is self-evident."

   "So I hope everyone can keep a clear head and not be blindly optimistic."

  After speaking, he stood up and bowed.

  The audience below, of course, also responded with polite applause, but it was much less enthusiastic than before.

  After sitting down, Rogers complained again: "Man, you are really not a competent teammate. After sitting here, you didn't say a word."

  Liu Qingshan simply cooperated with him, still did not speak, but raised his finger to his own paper.

   Rogers put his hand on his forehead: "Oh, I almost forgot, the opinions I quoted are actually all yours, so you are the real main force."

   After speaking, he gave Professor Peter a thumbs up: "Professor, you have cultivated a great student."

   "It's too early to say this now." Professor Peter didn't think so.

  He is also preparing to give a final speech, and then enters the free discussion session. I believe that the students below will have a lot to say and want to communicate with the predators on the stage.

  But Rogers was not ready to let him go: "Professor, time will tell, facts speak louder than words."

   "No, Jim, before things happen, I won't make any assumptions. Of course, if Liu's prediction is correct, then I will consider helping him finish his undergraduate studies early and follow me to study for a doctorate."

  Professor Peter is also a very practical person. He started his final statement seriously: "The debate just now was very exciting and intense."

   "But none of us has the ability to predict the future, so the real answer lies in the future."

   "The stock market and stocks are just a small branch of economic classification. Everyone can study it, but I don't want anyone to be addicted to him."

   "Okay, now it's time for free questions."

  In the lecture hall, it immediately became lively, and the students below raised their hands one after another.

   Seeing this, Liu Qingshan nodded to several people on the stage, and then walked down the stage, but was still surrounded by several reporters.

  Different from those students, the reporters obviously paid more attention to Liu Qingshan, because this is how the news broke.

   There is no other way, Liu Qingshan can only deal with the reporter for a while, talking nonsense.

  A reporter refused to give up: "Mr. Mountain, do you want to use this maverick method to attract attention when you predict the stock market will plummet?"

  Liu Qingshan's expression also became serious: "No, this is a warning. I want to emphasize to all investors, be vigilant and protect your wallet."

  The reporter shrugged his shoulders: "Then Mr. Mountain, can you tell me the exact time when the stock market crash happened?"

  Liu Qingshan blinked: "Maybe next Monday."

   After speaking, he separated the crowd and left the lecture hall.

  As for what he said, even if it is published in the newspaper, no one will believe it, and maybe it will be ridiculed by countless people.

  The facts were similar to what Liu Qingshan expected. On the second day, several newspapers published reports on the high-end summit in the economic section.

   It's just that everyone mentioned the names of Rogers and Soros, and the pawns in the economic field like Liu Qingshan didn't mention it at all.

  Instead, there was a tabloid for entertainment, which reported on Liu Qingshan, teasing him for choosing the wrong major.

   Liu Qingshan just laughed it off, and calmly waited for the opening of the black storm.

  (end of this chapter)