Chapter 297

  Compared with a few years ago, Xiao Yuanzheng has gained a lot of weight. The middle-aged man who seemed to be very capable at first has now grown a beer blessing. Obviously, he has not escaped the law of middle-aged blessing. Fortunately, the hair is still there.

"I said, Director Li, it's really not easy to find you! I called your garment factory based on the phone number you left before, but no one answered it. Then I asked someone to find out that the garment factory was closed. , And then I inquired for another round, only to find out which electric furnace factory you went to..."

  Xiao Yuanzheng's words must be exaggerated. With his ability, it is not easy to find Li Weidong, but it is not difficult.

"Mr. Xiao, I really didn't expect you to find me! If I had known it, I would definitely go to visit, how dare you condescend to come to Qinghe!" Li Weidong laughed, and then asked: "Mr. Xiao is still doing it now. Foreign trade?"

   "No, it was transferred to the State-owned Assets Administration Bureau last year." Xiao Yuanzheng said.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission was established in 2003. Prior to this, the representative who performed the functions of state-owned assets was the State-owned Assets Administration Bureau. It has functions such as state-owned assets ownership, supervision and management, state investment and income rights, and asset disposal rights. The powers are very large. .

  Mintai Foreign Trade was originally a state-owned foreign trade company, and Xiao Yuanzheng was also a cadre of the state, and his transfer to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau was also a normal operation.

  Li Weidong nodded suddenly, and immediately said: “Manager Xiao is now on a high promotion. No, I can’t teach you Mr. Xiao anymore. You have to call you Director Xiao!”

   "What Director Xiao, I am a young director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau." Xiao Yuanzheng replied with a smile.

  Li Weidong knows that in the system, the term "director" is the most "mysterious". You never know how big an official "director" is.

Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "Director Li, I have not seen you in the past few years. You are also a big business. Your electrical appliance factory is not small in scale. You have to go to the production line of microwave ovens. That's high-end household appliances. And I listened. Say you have a farm machinery factory?"

  "It's just some bigger workshops, not worth mentioning." Li Weidong said with a smile.

  Li Weidong is not humble. In front of the leadership of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau, his industry is really similar to a big workshop.

  The two exchanged a few more words before Li Weidong asked: "Director Xiao, you came to Qinghe to find me, don’t know any instructions?"

   "I am looking for you to write an article." Xiao Yuanzheng said.

   "Writing an article?" Li Weidong was taken aback for a moment, and then said; "I am not a writer, so why is it not my turn to write articles?"

  "You still have to do this!" Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "Do you remember that when we first met, you told me about the economic situation in Japan!"

  Li Weidong nodded. At that time, in order to make Xiao Yuanzheng not underestimate himself, he did talk about the development trend of the Japanese economy after the "Plaza Accord".

Xiao Yuanzheng went on to say: "When I went home, I mentioned the things you mentioned to my old man. The old man found it very interesting, so he asked me to organize a report and show it to him. I didn't take it back. This is a serious matter, so I simply wrote some content and handed it in.

  Who knows that two days ago, the old man came to me again and said that the economic development of Japan predicted in that report was all fulfilled! So the old man asked me to write another report to talk about Japan's economic development trends in the next four to five years. But I don't understand this, so I came to you! "

  Li Weidong's heart suddenly became tense, he asked: "Director Xiao, this report you want, is it going to be handed over to the leader again?"

   "It should be. Otherwise, the old man at home wouldn't specifically ask me to take out the report." Xiao Yuanzheng nodded.

Li Weidong hesitated for a moment, and finally he asked, "Director Xiao, I also know that there are some things I shouldn’t ask, but I still have to confirm that if this report is written, which leaders will be able to see? There is also a bottom in my heart."

   "I don't know!" Xiao Yuanzheng smiled, and then said: "I really don't know, but I don't even know. That's definitely not a general-level leader. To be specific, you can get it yourself."

   "I roughly understand." Li Weidong nodded, and then said, "Then I will write a more detailed report. You can select some suitable ones and report to the leader."

"Don't, don't be like this!" Xiao Yuanzheng shook his head: "I am very busy over there. How can I mix this matter again? I can’t bear to predict the economic development of the United States and Europe! You write this report and send it under your signature, and I can say that I have disassociated it from this matter!"

   "My signature!" Li Weidong was startled, and he instantly realized that this is a big opportunity!

Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "I have already told the old man at home. The report that year was written as you said, so this time I will let you sign it directly. If the leader wants to read the report again in the future, let They are looking for you directly! I won't make this microphone!"

  ……

  The report is to be handed over to the leaders, so Li Weidong naturally has to be extra attentive.

  There will be too many scholars in later generations to study the rise and fall of the Japanese economy, and various conclusions have emerged one after another, and many studies and analyses are also very reasonable.

  Although scholars have different opinions on the Japanese economy, one thing is certain, that is, the Japanese economy has really lost 30 years.

When this statement was first put forward, it was in 2011. At that time, Japanese economists wrote a book "Lost Twenty Years", which was about the 20 years of the Japanese economy from the 1990s to 2010. matter.

  As a result, by 2020, the Japanese economy is still half-dead, so the lost 20 years will become the lost 30 years.

  According to Xiao Yuanzheng's request, let Li Weidong write a forecast of the Japanese economy for the next four years, probably by 1995.

  However, Li Weidong felt that only predicting until 1995 was obviously too mediocre. He wanted to show his face to the top leaders, how could he boldly predict for two years before the Asian financial crisis, it is more appropriate.

  1995 was the peak of the Japanese economy, at least in terms of numbers.

  In that year, although Japan’s real estate and stock markets had collapsed and a large amount of capital had been trapped, the exchange rate of the yen had reached its peak, and Japan’s GDP had reached US$5.45 trillion.

After   , Japan’s GDP began to decline, and it fell sharply by one-fifth within three years. Even in 2020, Japan’s GDP will only be 5.05 trillion US dollars, far worse than 1995.

  The same is true for per capita GDP. In 1995, Japan’s per capita GDP was 43,000 U.S. dollars, and in 2020 it was 40,000 U.S. dollars. Not only did it not increase, but it dropped by one-tenth.

  For those studying economics, it is easy to predict an upward economy, just follow the model of increasing the economic growth rate slowly. This is not a skill. Any college student studying economics can do it.

  But it is much more dazzling to be able to predict an economy’s transition from prosperity to decline, because this is not a judgment made by simply calculating a data model.

  Li Weidong felt that he finally had the opportunity to show his face in front of the leader. It is estimated that this will be the opportunity in his life, so he simply showed his face more thoroughly and left a deeper impression on the leader.

As a result, in the report, Li Weidong not only stated the problems in the Japanese economy, but also predicted in detail what will happen to the Japanese economy in the next few years, and what measures the Japanese government will introduce, and predicted the Japanese economy. , Will reach its peak in 1995, and then it will decline.

  In economics, there are actually many predictions like this, but almost all of them are guessing, and there is no accurate prediction. It is not so much a prediction as it is a blogger's eyeball.

  But as long as there is one who can predict accurately, he will probably be worshipped as a master of economics.

  ……

  At this time in his last life, Li Weidong had already arrived in Japan. In order to get a job opportunity, he was working hard to learn Japanese.

  In order to be able to master Japanese as soon as possible, Li Weidong will stare at the news on TV whenever he has time and practice listening and speaking. Therefore, Li Weidong has a very good understanding of Japan’s current political and economic conditions during this period.

  It took Li Weidong three days to finally finish writing the report, and then it was handed over to Xiao Yuanzheng.

   "Let me appreciate Director Li's masterpiece first!" Xiao Yuanzheng took the report and looked at it carefully.

"In order to cope with the possible economic recession, the Japanese government will reform the currency, adopt a vigorous expansionary monetary policy, and adjust interest rates. It is expected that interest rates will be lowered in the second half of 1991, and interest rate cuts will be carried out 10 to 12 consecutive times. , There will be zero interest rates in four years!"

Xiao Yuanzheng's eyes widened, and then he said: "Director Li, you can really predict this. The Japanese government has just raised interest rates five times. I remember that the interest rate in Japan is now about 6%, right? How can it be lowered? To zero interest rate!"

   "Yes, this is my judgment. I think Japan will eventually fall into the liquidity trap!" Li Weidong said.

Liquidity trap is a concept in economics, put forward by economist Keynes, it refers to a certain period of time when the interest rate level is reduced to no longer lower, perhaps the elasticity of demand will become infinite, at this time no matter how much money is added, Will be stored by people.

  Once it enters the epidemic trap, monetary policy will not be able to change the interest rate market. Throughout the world, only Japan has entered the liquidity trap.

Xiao Yuanzheng shook his head and said: “The stock market and real estate in Japan are now falling. Many economists have predicted that Japan will cut interest rates. The market has recovered. Moreover, Japan’s current economy has always maintained growth. How could it fall into a liquidity trap!"

  Li Weidong smiled slightly: "Let’s wait and see."

Xiao Yuanzheng continued to look down, frowning again: "It is estimated that starting from 1992, the Bank of Japan will increase the issuance of bonds. It is estimated that 45 trillion yen will be issued within three years! 45 trillion, I read it right! The exchange rate of yuan to US dollar is equivalent to...Do you have a calculator here?"

   "Don't forget it, it's equivalent to 350 billion U.S. dollars!" Li Weidong replied.

   "Yes, 350 billion U.S. dollars, how is this possible! Japan's GDP last year was just over three trillion U.S. dollars! How could it be possible to find so many national debts!" ​​Xiao Yuanzheng said, shaking his head.

   "Director Xiao, you can see clearly, the 45 trillion yen I said is an additional national debt issued on the original basis. The original national debt issued normally is not counted here." Li Weidong replied with a smile.

   "Your prediction is less reliable than those economists in Beijing!" Xiao Yuanzheng curled his lips and continued to read the report.

"The Japanese government will implement tax reforms and increase land value taxes. That's not right! Japanese real estate has been falling. If land value taxes are imposed, wouldn't the real estate market never recover! How could the Japanese government do such a stupid thing?" Xiao Yuanzheng said. Said.

  Li Weidong smiled slightly and did not speak. Japan is indeed about to levy a land value tax. This land value tax has been levied until 1998, but after that, the land value tax was only suspended and not abolished.

"The Japanese government will increase financial investment in the fields of communications and technology; loan import restrictions, reduce foreign trade exports, and expand the scope of import tax; adjust commodity prices, reduce energy and other public utility charges; establish new low-interest loans, radical and Special insurance system; reduce corporate tax burden and promote foreign investment. I don't know how many of the items you listed can be achieved!" Xiao Yuanzheng said with a smile.

  The several items listed by Li Weidong are all measures introduced by the Japanese government in the 1990s in response to the economic bubble, and naturally they will all be realized.

"Japan's GDP will reach its highest peak in 1995 and will enter negative growth in 1996! Director Li, you can really say that the Japanese economy has grown for 40 to 50 years, even if it cannot maintain rapid growth. , It won't be negative growth!" Xiao Yuanzheng kept shaking his head with an incredible expression.

  Li Weidong smiled and said in his heart, I have not predicted that China's economy will surpass Japan in 2010! Otherwise I have to scare you stupid!

  Xiao Yuanzheng finally turned to the last few pages of the report.

   "The decline of the Japanese stock market and real estate market will have an impact on Japanese politics. The Liberal Democratic Party will lose the election? How is this possible!"

  Xiao Yuanzheng raised his head: "Director Li, this is a big joke! Since World War II, Japan has been in power by the Liberal Democratic Party. How can the Liberal Democratic Party be elected?"

   “There are no such absolute things in the world. The governments of Western countries do not manage the economy, and it is normal to be ousted by the voters, such as the old in the United States...”

  Meng Li Weidong’s words, he originally wanted to say that Bush Sr. had won Iraq, but because he failed to do a good job in the economy, he could not be re-elected in the end.

  The words came to the lips, but Li Weidong suddenly remembered that it is 1991, and Bush Sr. has not stepped down yet!

  Li Weidong had no choice but to change his words and said: "For example, President Hoover in the 1920s in the United States lost to Roosevelt because he failed to improve the economy!"

"That being said, your prediction is still too outrageous!" Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "Your report is really amazing and endless. If I submit this report, I don't know how many people will be there. , Treat this as a joke!"

"You asked me to report, isn't it because my forecast of Japan's economic prospects is different from others! If my forecast is consistent with other economists, then the leader can go straight to those economists' reports! "Li Weidong said with a smile.

  Xiao Yuanzheng put on a gesture of throwing his hand at the shopkeeper: "Well! Anyway, I just want a report and have a business with my father. Just laugh at it! You will be the one to be laughed at at that time!"

  　 This chapter is more than 4,000 words. Thank you parents for subscribing. The next few chapters are still being revised. It is a coherent plot and has to be posted tomorrow. Ask for a guaranteed monthly pass! Thanks for passing the customs.

  　　

  　

  (End of this chapter)