?In the process of "teaching the preaching" for Guo Shouyun, Warner gave a very simple example. He took a three-month period as an operation period, and in accordance with the "interest rate parity theory" law in finance, here During the three-month operation period, the US dollar interest rate, the Hong Kong dollar interest rate, and the spot and forward exchange rates of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar should maintain a certain relationship. ~~.~~ That is to say, as long as there are the interest rates of the two currencies and the spot exchange rate between them, the forward exchange rate between the two currencies after three months can be calculated, and this forward exchange rate It's not real, it's calculated according to a formula, which is called "implied forward rate" in finance.

So what is the formula for calculating the forward exchange rate? It is very simple, for example: according to the law of interest rate parity, a person exchanges 100 Hong Kong dollars for US dollars today and deposits the obtained US dollars in the bank. It is equivalent to the amount of US dollars that can be exchanged for the principal and interest after directly depositing 100 Hong Kong dollars in the bank for three months. The dollar-to-Hong Kong dollar exchange rate in the forward market three months later is the three-month forward exchange rate today.

In reality, the implied forward exchange rate calculated according to the formula will basically not be realized, because in the three-month period, various unexpected events will occur in the international financial market, which will lead to three-month There is a difference between the spot exchange rate and the implied forward exchange rate. The positive or negative of this difference is the source of profit for financial speculators.

According to Warner, because Hong Kong's economy is developing rapidly now, and although the US economy has recovered from the depression in previous years, its economic growth rate is still unable to compare with Hong Kong and Southeast Asian and East Asian countries. , therefore, in order to stimulate domestic consumption. The interest rate of the US dollar is relatively low, and its annual interest rate is about 6%, and there is no possibility of any adjustment in the short term. At the same time, due to the overheating of the economic development in Hong Kong, there has been inflationary pressure to a certain extent. The Hong Kong government has stabilized the Hong Kong dollar market in order to withdraw funds. The Hong Kong dollar interest rate has just been raised once before. Today, the Hong Kong dollar interest rate limit is maintained at about 10%, and it is foreseeable that as long as the Hong Kong dollar is attacked by international hot money, the Hong Kong government will further increase the Hong Kong dollar interest rate.

Based on the total amount of international hot money roaming in Southeast Asia at this time and the affordability of the Hong Kong government, Warner infers that in the next three months, the Hong Kong government will face the impact of international hot money. It is very likely that the Hong Kong dollar interest rate will be raised to a ceiling of 20 percent to counter mass intrusions by state speculators.

As a result, the U.S. dollar interest rate remains unchanged. The Hong Kong dollar interest rate has increased on a large scale. At the same time, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar is still constant, so it is calculated according to the law of interest rate parity. This formula does not work, and the large amount of funds that jumped out due to the increase in the Hong Kong dollar interest rate has become "spare". Who took this part of the money in the end? There is no doubt that it was taken away by those international speculators who tried their best to lower the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar. At this time, a question arises. Since international speculators do not have enough Hong Kong dollars to speculate in foreign exchange, they want to intervene in the Hong Kong financial market. It is necessary to borrow a large amount of Hong Kong dollar funds. And as the Hong Kong dollar interest rate rises, their losses will be far greater than their possible gains. Under such circumstances, how can international speculators make profits? to this point. Warner gave a very clear explanation.

According to Warner, if this financial speculation is up to him, he will never speculate on the Hong Kong dollar in the spot market, but start in the forward market. In the foreign exchange speculation market, there is a big difference between spot and forward transactions, that is, the spot market requires cash transactions, while the forward market is based on the credit of both parties. In this case, Warner can use the name of "Wanlong Fund" to enter the market in May to speculate on the forward Hong Kong dollar of the nine-month period, that is, the forward exchange rate for three months. Due to the great reputation of Wanlong Fund, its ability to pay funds is recognized worldwide. Therefore, he can easily intervene in the transaction with a blank check in the foreign exchange market, without the need to pay Hong Kong dollars in cash immediately. In this way, he also avoided the heavy interest in Hong Kong dollars, thus achieving the goal of traveling lightly.

After removing the threat in this first step, the following problems are easier. Since the real purpose of international speculators is to disrupt the stability of the Hang Seng Index by hitting the Hong Kong dollar and profit from the decline of the Hang Seng Index, Warner You can use 5 billion of funds to buy three months later, that is, the forward exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar fell in the September period. Of course, the $5 billion fund may not be able to directly shake the strong position of the Hong Kong dollar, not to mention that this is still a three-month forward transaction order, but the problem is that the international financial market is very sensitive, and those who will be fully wealthy Those who have invested in it, even those ordinary Hong Kong people who are more concerned about the exchange rate market, have to hold their money bags with trepidation, when a $5 billion forward transaction order is put into the financial market, and they gamble for three months. When the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar falls, the hearts of these people will tremble. For the sake of safety, the choice they want is to take the lead in throwing out the Hong Kong dollar in their hands, in exchange for a more stable and stronger US dollar - anyway, the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar are Is it not the same as using US dollars in Hong Kong?

As a result, when the number of people who follow the trend has grown from one to one hundred, ten thousand or even one hundred million, a frenzy of selling Hong Kong dollars has emerged. This is the wolf pack in the financial market proposed by Soros. effect.

Affected by the selling frenzy of Hong Kong dollar, Hong Kong's economy will drop sharply, which will directly affect the Hang Seng Index. He has already locked in a profitable victory on the technical side of hyping the Hang Seng Index.

However, at this time, Warner believed that the changes in the Hang Seng Index brought him too little profit. At the same time, the five billion US dollars he invested in the foreign exchange market was not willing to be swallowed up. He wanted to make money. More, even a little money-losing place doesn't want to appear. And what about reality? Affected by the decline of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate in the previous period and the decline of the Hang Seng Index, the Hong Kong government has realized the seriousness of the problem. A series of decisions were made, for example, the use of foreign exchange reserves to forcefully raise the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar, and the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar was raised on a large scale. In the case of insufficient local foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong, in July, with the return of Hong Kong to the mainland, foreign exchange from mainland China Foreign exchange reserves and a lot of good news will also flood the international financial market with lightning speed. In this case, Warner does not think he has any chance to continue to suppress the Hong Kong dollar. So, what does Warner do to make more money and essentially eliminate his own losses? It is very simple, he will enter the Hong Kong dollar speculation market again, and at the same time, invest more funds in it, but unlike the previous time, this time he wants to buy the Hong Kong dollar forward exchange rate.

In the first shot, Warner spent US$5 billion in the three-month forward market, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar for the September period fell. After a period of operation, it is estimated that June has passed, and the time has entered July. Therefore, when he speculates again, he will still speculate on the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate for the September period. At this point, he will invest 20 billion US dollars, and after two months of frenzy, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar will rise sharply. At this time, since the return of Hong Kong has just entered the prelude stage, various favorable measures have not yet appeared. Warner’s first strike is to win the initiative for himself, and after that, mainland funds enter In Hong Kong, the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar has risen, and the exchange rate has stabilized and continued to rise. Another fundamental aspect of his profit has emerged.

Not to mention anything else, just talk about the 20% Hong Kong dollar interest rate. Since Warner invested 20 billion US dollars to buy Hong Kong dollar forwards, then after two months, the Hong Kong government must exchange one US dollar for 7.8 Hong Kong dollars. , pay him a huge amount of interest of 156 billion Hong Kong dollars, in addition, plus the exchange rate difference, stock index profit, etc., these items together, he can swept up to billions of dollars from Hong Kong huge sums of money.

What is currency speculation? What is high-IQ, high-level, high-tech currency speculation? There is no doubt that this is what Warner is playing. He does not need a lot of funds, several billions are enough, and this time, in order to make a fortune in the financial market, Guo Shouyun raised as much as 47 billion. That is to say, if we want to sink Hong Kong's economy, this force alone is enough.

But having said that, the problem now is that although Guo Shouyun is cunning, and in pursuit of profit, he can do whatever he can to a certain extent, but he is a Chinese after all. From his bones to his blood, it is all Chinese. of blood, in this case, he will not extend his black hand to Hong Kong anyway, as he said to Warner, the $47 billion he raised this time is not Those who intend to make money in Hong Kong intend to eat as much international hot money as possible to the maximum extent.

Guo Shouyun thought very concretely. He believed that if he wanted to give international hot money this time, he had to start on the Hang Seng Index, because that was the most direct goal of international speculators.

"Is the US$47 billion fund enough to maintain the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index?" This is a crucial question that Guo Shouyun asked Warner.

"Not enough," Warner's answer was simple and clear, but the senior investor in the financial world added, "However, there should be more than a gentleman standing up to protect the market, if you are not afraid to put all this money in , and hand them over to me for full control, in this decisive battle, whoever wins or loses in the end will be decided by three or seven.”.