Revisiting Future Path

Chapter 212: The Olympics is over, the financial stor

At the end of the 212th Olympic Games, it is human nature to chase the rise and fall after the financial turmoil. From October 2007 to August 2008, in just October, the Shenhai Securities Index plummeted from a high of 6,000 points to the current 2,600 points. The Chinese stock market lost approximately RMB 9 trillion in total market value. Under the current accounting statistics standards, China’s 2007 gross national product was only 25.3 trillion yuan, and 9 trillion yuan is 35% of 25.3 trillion yuan. The market value of the stock market is also a kind of net assets. It can be imagined that 35% of everyone's income in a year has been wiped out. If the original monthly income was 5,000 yuan, the average monthly income is now only 3,250 yuan. An abstract metaphor is like you should have received a monthly salary of 5,000 yuan. Unexpectedly, the virtual economy is in recession and the salary is suddenly cut to 3,250 yuan. A monthly salary of 5,000 yuan and a monthly salary of 3,000 yuan are obviously two concepts. Although the virtual economy is not a real economy, its impact on specific groups of people is equally tragic. When the market goes up, all problems are not a problem. Investors smile and reject non-market policy intervention; when the market goes down, the original small problems become big problems. Investors, like bereaved, cried and asked the government to rescue the market. The decline in the market has caused a series of questions. In addition to calling on the country to punish shorts, the market also asked "whether the sale of large and small non-sales is the main cause of the plunge", "whether the stock market plunge has aggravated the macroeconomic downturn", "whether the government should rescue the market", and the share-trading reform. Is it worthy of recognition" and other issues have been fiercely debated. Whether the government should bail out the market proposed by the cabinet chief is one of many fierce debates. All the people in stocks until the whole people are locked in, the countless victims want to realize the cash out, of course, they are inclined to the government to take over. The professors and experts who held the opposite view were criticized by public opinion as "calling beasts" and "bricks", and they gave fierce ridicule. When discussing these issues, the important thing is not who is right and who is wrong, but where the **** sits: sitting with me, you are an expert; if not sitting with me, you are the brick house. In the current situation, the more sensible strategy is not to express opinions. Because Wei Dongsheng has already withdrawn from the Chinese stock market, and because Chunqiu Network and Chunqiu Search are both on the Nasdaq in the United States, the stock market’s plunge and skyrocketing have limited impact on Wei Dongsheng. It is best for Wei Dongsheng not to express opinions, be an expert, or be a brickman. But now that the first minister of the cabinet asked, Wei Dongsheng can no longer be clever. The cabinet chief may introduce some policies that some people hate because of the difference in the butt, but he himself is by no means a stupid person, and a stupid person can't hold the position of being above 10,000 people. Wei Dongsheng's delusion of playing cleverness in front of the cabinet chief will only backfire and cause the label of "incompetence" to be rejected, and the loss is far greater than what Mingzhe would gain. After considering more than ten seconds, Wei Dongsheng decided to speak from his own standpoint: "Long-term stock investment can be simply divided into two categories, one is robust, which judges whether a company’s stock is worth investing based on parameters such as price-earnings ratio; the other is speculative, based on a certain Whether the company has an excellent future prospect is not worth the investment." "Take Chunqiu Network and Chunqiu Search as examples, Chunqiu Network’s 2007 operating income was 8.838 billion yuan and net profit was 1.767 billion yuan; Chunqiu Search’s Operating income was 3.719 billion yuan, and net profit was 1.047 billion yuan. Regardless of revenue or net profit, Chunqiu Network’s data is better than Chunqiu Search. However, based on yesterday’s closing price, Chunqiu Search has a market value of US$30.5 billion. The market value of Chunqiu Network is only $11.4 billion, and the former is almost three times that of the latter. The market value of Chunqiu Search is higher than that of Chunqiu. This is because it has excellent future prospects and hopes to catch up with Chunqiu.com within five years. If I were a stockholder, I would also be willing to hold the stocks of Chunqiu Search." "My eyes are limited to a few stocks and several companies. Perhaps it should be prioritized like angel investment for its future prospects. However, Chunqiu Search is a company like this. It is not a universal phenomenon. More listed companies cannot realize the wonderful fantasy of doubling and doubling the market value." "If we are limited to a stock, we can have a speculative mentality; looking at the entire stock market, we must base ourselves on prudent policies, even if the stock market returns to it. The most basic financing attribute. Therefore, it is easier to judge whether a stock index will go up or down in the future than a stock will go up or down. Credible parameters such as operating income, net profit, and price-to-earnings ratio are the foundation of the broader market. Securities indexes without economic foundation support are definitely It can’t last. I briefly summarized the information of all listed companies of Shenhai Securities, and concluded that 3000 points are more appropriate, more than 4000 points is dangerous, and less than 2000 points will affect stock market financing." "My opinion, if Shenhai Securities Index is in A certain reasonable range of shocks, the government does not need to save it, nor should it save it; when it is higher than the tolerable upper limit or lower than the tolerable lower limit, the government must rescue it in time, and it is fair to introduce a series of policies for the stable operation of the stock market." The supplementary remarks concisely summarize Wei Dongsheng’s point of view: "Interference in economic policies." Economic policies are divided into planned economy and free economy. Planned economy means that the means of production are fully controlled by the government and all development is planned by the state; free economy means that the government does not interfere in the economy and is laissez-faire. Developed by market laws; interference in the economy is the product of coordination between the two. It can be simply imagined as the Shenhai Securities Index that delimits a certain market economy range from 2000 to 4000. If the market economy suddenly runs out of control, the country will immediately give it Interference regulation. Chief Cabinet Secretary: "It is possible that the Shenhai Securities Index will fall below 2000?" Wei Dongsheng: "The chances are very high." Cabinet Chief Secretary: "Why?" Wei Dongsheng: "Chasing the rise and the fall, the flock always chases after the rise. It’s fierce, and it’s fierce.” The cabinet’s first assistant was noncommittal, and then talked about a new topic: “The recent trends of the two major mortgage financing institutions in the United States, Fannie and Freddie, are very bad. What do you think is related to the economic crisis in 2007? How does it compare?" Wei Dongsheng: "Double." The cabinet chief frowned slightly: "More serious than 2007?" Wei Dongsheng: "Yes." The cabinet chief was about to speak, suddenly a secretary walked over and whispered. He said: "First assistant, time is up." Small staff are busy with small staff, and cabinet chiefs are busy with cabinet chiefs. The working hours of cabinet chiefs are often filled a few days in advance. After meeting Wei Dongsheng, he may continue to meet other people, or participate in various meetings. Unless the situation is urgent, he will never be able to chat with Wei Dongsheng leisurely. The cabinet chief nodded towards the secretary, expressing his understanding. The secretary turned around and walked away for a certain distance without verbal advice. The cabinet chief no longer asked about specific matters, and said with a gracious smile: "I heard you like boxing?" Wei Dongsheng is used to using health-care boxing to control the burden on the body. With Wei Dongsheng being the richest man in China for three consecutive years, his economic status has increased. The more stable he is, more and more interested people put him under a magnifying glass to observe and study. Wei Dongsheng's love for health, health preservation, and boxing has gradually become a label that the outside world puts on Wei Dongsheng. Wei Dongsheng was too lazy to argue, and simply accepted the label over and over again: "I like it." The cabinet chief: "I also like boxing, Tai Chi." Wei Dongsheng: "I am not familiar with Tai Chi." The cabinet chief: "No matter what. Boxing, different routes go the same way, boxing theory is the same. Can we stay in Yanjing recently and we can exchange our boxing experience when we have time?" Wei Dongsheng did not rely on boxing to make his name in China. If the cabinet chief wants to exchange boxing methods, he will never have the turn. Wei Dongsheng. However, the invitation of the cabinet chief obviously drunk man's intention is not to drink, he wants to communicate with Wei Dongsheng more than just boxing. Considering that power is the first place under the Chinese system, Wei Dongsheng immediately adjusted his schedule: "Okay." The chief minister of the cabinet seemed to be concerned about asking: "Is there a place to live?" This sentence is obviously still a question. No matter how high the house price in Yanjing is, Wei Dongsheng will not be embarrassed to sleep on the streets with no place to live. Wei Dongsheng did not understand what the cabinet chief wanted to ask, so he replied stiffly: "There is no arrangement for the time being. I may live in Poly Hyde Park between Yanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Yanjing Film Academy, or Heqing, north of Tsinghua University. Yuan." The first minister of the cabinet: "The road is a bit far away, why not live on Wenjin Street?" Wei Dongsheng did not decline: "Okay." The meeting ended here. A secretary surnamed Wu arranged Wei Dongsheng and Ginguo in the residence on the side of the North Sea, and waited for the second meeting of the cabinet chief. Unfortunately, the first minister of the cabinet was obviously very busy, and there was no news for three days, five days, ten and a half months. However, Secretary Wu has already told Wei Dongsheng that Beihai Residence is not a prison. From Poly Hyde Park to the Spring and Autumn Search Building at Xierqi Subway Station, Wei Dongsheng can go wherever he wants. There is only one real restriction. Wei Dongsheng needs to keep in touch with Secretary Wu at all times to ensure that Secretary Wu can know the specific location of Wei Dongsheng at any time. Wei Dongsheng was not confined to the giant house in Beihai, but was imprisoned in the fifth ring of Yanjing. During his stay in Yanjing, Wei Dongsheng accompanied Ginguo to watch the Olympics every day and applauded the athletes' wonderful performance. In the evening, he communicated with Gong Qiuqiu to understand the development of the financial turmoil from a distance. Bear Stearns has overturned, and the remaining four investment banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers are also in a quagmire. Lehman Brothers has the most serious problem. In order to tide over the difficulties, Richard_Fuld, the head of Lehman Brothers, is actively looking for buyers. Fuld once contacted Warren_Buffett (Warren_Buffett), who was on the Forbes Global Rich List in 2008, for help. Buffett offered Lehman Brothers a price tag of $40 per share. Fuld insists that Lehman Brothers is running very healthy, insisting that real estate will soon recover, and any offer lower than $66 per share is an insult to him.