Opening 1861: I Just Inherited the Dutch Throne Chapter 505 Why did the British Empire dare not do anything? (patriotic theme)

Kingdom of Prussia, Berlin.

Bismarck frowned and thought. In front of him was a pile of newspapers, some from Spain, some from the Netherlands and Britain, some from Prussia, and as a diplomat, he knew French and Spanish before he was ambassador to France. And so on, not to mention Russian, English and Dutch, so he knows European languages ​​well, so reading the reports from the major newspapers of various countries in front of him is one of the greatest pleasures for him. one.

"At a time when the outside world was speculating about whether the Dutch Speaker of the House of Representatives Huntington visited Spain, the telegram dialogue between the prime ministers of the UK and the Netherlands was carried out as scheduled. Although the two sides are still in their respective statements, it is conceivable that Disraeli and Tolbek should have in-depth communication on Huntington's visit to Spain. If the Speaker of the House of Representatives Huntington insists on visiting Spain, the trip may end in a low-key and low-key manner."

Bismarck was very interested in the Gibraltar dispute between Britain, the Netherlands, and the West. He was not interested in Gibraltar itself, but the event.

He couldn't help but murmured: "The Netherlands has come back with such a backhand, making the UK passive, and the Spanish government cannot refuse. If it refuses, then the ruling Prime Minister Ramon Narvaez will almost predictably collapse. For one thing, it seems that the Dutch speaker of the House of Representatives used the Dutch and the Spaniards to be anti-British, and deliberately stirred up public opinion to gain political popularity. In fact, there may be other intentions behind the scenes. No matter how you look at it, it seems that he is cooperating with the Netherlands. foreign policy”

Bismarck suddenly thought so, and it seemed that the Netherlands was really pushing the situation forward.

"If this is the case, then it makes sense. In fact, as early as the "Spanish Herald" reported that Huntington planned to visit Spain, the Dutch administrative system and military gave a very clever attitude, In particular, Prime Minister Tolbeck's phrase "inappropriate, unpleasant".

Hesbet Feng, the foreign minister that Tolbek relied on, strongly opposed it, and Tolbek himself mentioned the role of the military inadvertently. Whether it was a leak or an intentional act was no longer important.

The meaning of the Dutch military is very clear: Huntington, the chairman of the House of Representatives, has to go to Spain, so the military has to take a legal responsibility according to the constitution to assist in maintaining security. "

Bismarck looked at the reports in these newspapers, and became more and more sure of his idea that everything was developed with the cooperation of various departments in the Netherlands. Perhaps, the Netherlands might have the whole plan for the incident. Thinking of this, he was slightly taken aback. If so If so, what does the Netherlands want to do? Picture what?

"From the internal pull of the Netherlands in the early stage, it can basically reveal the true position of the military represented by the Tolbek government and Chief of General Staff Mark Rudd: first, we deeply realized that Gibraltar will be the biggest conflict point between the UK and Spain. , and it is clear that Britain may have drawn where the red line is, so the doubts and objections raised by Tolbeck and others to Huntington.

Second, fully aware that Huntington's visit to Spain and his support for the Gibraltar issue would have an impact on the Dutch government's stance on Britain's policy, so the Tolbek cabinet government repeatedly reiterated that the Dutch government does not support Huntington's remarks about Gibraltar. Third, the Tolbeck government fully respects Huntington’s right to be the Speaker of the Dutch House of Representatives under the Dutch constitutional framework, and although it will not obstruct it, it will not endorse him.”

According to the setting just now, Bismarck came to a conclusion.

"In the above context, Tolbeck should have expressed his position and concerns to Prime Minister Disraeli in London through this communication, and Disraeli expressed the dissatisfaction of the United Kingdom, and it seems that it may have foreshadowed two points, First London We must take tough countermeasures against Huntington's visit to the West. Second, if Huntington insists on visiting the West, he will bear the greatest responsibility. Obviously, compared with the past when Viscount Palmerston was the Prime Minister, the Prime Minister of England and the Netherlands had a peaceful dialogue. Britain and the Netherlands during the Lebanese period have abandoned the gentleman's exchange and turned into a direct and rude collision."

Bismarck thought: "London's questions and warnings based on Huntington's provocation of the Gibraltar issue are more directly directed at the Tolbek government, but in this telegram communication, London's accusations of the Tolbek government's words and deeds against Gibraltar were not so strong. The Tolbeck administration had knowledge and understanding of the circumstances of Huntington's visit to Spain."

As one of the Dutch anti-British political leaders whose term is expiring and who seeks to remain in the position, Huntington's visit to Spain is almost at the ready and has to be made. But what is intriguing is that when the trip to Spain came to light, Huntington responded to the media by saying that he "supports Spain, but does not support Spain's provocation of Britain in order to seize Gibraltar." This position is actually consistent with the Dutch government. Therefore, Huntington himself, who is extremely flamboyant in politics, believes that his words and deeds will be restrained during his visit to Spain.

After the telegram communication between Tolbeck and Disraeli, Bismarck guessed that there may be three situations in Huntington's visit to Spain: the first is "flying on the water", and the meeting itinerary may be limited to Madrid, the capital of Spain, and the duration of stay may even be short. It is very short; the second closed-door meeting will not be announced to the public, and it will inevitably be reborn in front of the Spanish government officials. Support Spain but not support Spain's position of provoking Britain; third, the Tolbek government will once again reiterate the existing Dutch policy, that is, support Spain's voice, but not against British control.

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Bismarck thought about it and laughed to himself: "In this way, how London responds and counteracts is worthy of attention. When Huntington is in Spain, London's warships will keep close to the Spanish Atlantic and Mediterranean coastlines and keep circling? Or Officially sanction Huntington himself, his family, and the team members who visited Spain? The answer will be revealed soon.”

"Whether the Netherlands is setting up a game or not, this is an opportunity for Prussia. If Prussia can take advantage of the chaos to get more benefits, it might as well do something extraordinary."

Bismarck paused, "The French Empire ruled by Napoleon III is still bleeding for the Far East, and the more it bleeds, the easier it will be for Prussia to attack France in the future. Therefore, the Netherlands is currently pushing the Hague State Court to organize sanctions against the French Empire. This approach can be continued, but it should not be too heavy. If it is too heavy, it will make Napoleon III feel pain and finally choose to compromise. In that case, France will stop the practice of the Far East, and even with the shrewdness of the French, it will be possible in the short term. To repair relations with other countries, when Prussia starts, it will face a powerful France, and it will also need to face the surrounding countries that have eased their relations with France, which may support France and oppose Prussia.”

Bismarck took a deep breath, "So, Prussia's participation in sanctions against the French Empire will be counterproductive, but it will become an excuse for the French Olivier government to put down its face and beg for mercy. The United Kingdom and Austria-Hungary Empire also think the same way, after all. Everyone wants to try to undercut their competitors.”

"Therefore, the Dutch sanctions against France should not be expanded. It needs to be boiled slowly and warmly."

Bismarck's ideas must have had a significant impact on the future situation in Europe.

What many people in Paris do not know is that the high-level government officials in places like Berlin, London, and Vienna did not sanction them. They thought it was because they disagreed with the Dutch anti-French factor. important reason. If I had known, I would definitely not be as calm as I am now.

......

Brown, chief researcher at the Amsterdam Institute for Peace and director of the UK program, wrote in Belgium's influential European magazine Global Diplomacy on February 18 that British Prime Minister Disraeli did not want to be involved in a conflict that would distract him from his work. Attention may affect his situation in the domestic political-struggle with Whig leader Christon, an old rival, to win the Tory and Whig parliamentary elections soon, which is his priority now Task.

He believes that if Huntington visits Spain and makes anti-British remarks in Gibraltar, the UK should take military action, but it is very unlikely that London will use this opportunity to attack Madrid or Amsterdam, at least until the end of this year. Until the midterm election results come out, London will put stability first.

Citing people familiar with the communication arrangements between Tolbek and Disraeli, Luxembourg's European Times said that the Tolbek government believes that contact between the prime ministers is the best way to ease tensions between the two countries over the issue. Tolbeck also hopes to discuss more other international issues with Disraeli, as well as the issue of cooperation between Britain and the Netherlands in maintaining the safe navigation of the Malacca-Strait between the Malay Island and the Dutch East Indies against the war waged by France in the Far East. At the same time, the Netherlands also expected the British to support and punish France for launching the war against the Kingdom of Siam.

However, the outside world is not optimistic that this communication will bring substantial improvement to the relationship between the UK and the Netherlands, but the contact between the Prime Minister of the UK and the Netherlands at this time is expected to reduce the risk of an unmanageable crisis.

Tim, director of the Netherlands Governance Program at the National Peace Foundation in Rotterdam, a Dutch think tank, hopes that the two sides can set up mechanisms to reduce the risk of accidents. , I don't think people realize how dangerous it is at the moment"

However, Professor Miside, who is now a teacher at the Netherlands Centre for Strategic and International Studies and an expert on British Empire Project issues at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Political Science, believes that the two sides are not on the verge of danger, but the risk of a major crisis is higher than zero, so Telegram communication between Prime Minister Tolbek and Prime Minister Disraeli was important to avoid unnecessary conflict. +Bookmark+