The Greatest Showman (Big Play Bone)

Chapter 1931: Waiting for face slap

Warner Bros. has never worried about the hot discussion of "Interstellar Crossing". Even if the file is raised for half a year, even if the time is short, relying on the strong appeal of the cast lineup, these are not problems.

Sure enough, after the film premiere, from the media to the audience, from traditional newspapers and magazines to emerging social networks, "Interstellar" began to sweep the screen mightily, and the discussion went straight to the sky, although it was temporarily unable to communicate with "Captain America" 2" The foreshadowing that has been in the making for more than eighteen months is on the same level, but it still has a firm foothold during the summer vacation.

Now let’s look at the conversion rate between discussion popularity and box office data. Judging from the market appeal of Renly and Nolan, the final total box office number is worth looking forward to.

However, as mentioned before, due to the feedback from the internal preview and the decision to temporarily raise the file, Warner Bros. and industry insiders included relatively conservative estimates of the box office for the premiere. Refer to "Inception". From the box office curve, "Interstellar Crossing" should also rely more on the long-term box office, rather than the outbreak of the premiere weekend.

Warner Bros.'s caution can be seen in the number of public theaters.

"Godzilla" has 3,952 theaters.

"Interstellar Crossing", the number of public theaters is 3,592.

The number of screening theaters for the two works differed by 360, and the number of venues for "Interstellar Crossing" was even less than the "Lego Movie" and "300 Warriors" released earlier this year. In 2014 Among Warner Bros's annual theater works, the scale of "Interstellar Crossing" can only be ranked eighth, basically the same as the comedy film "Tami".

The number of public theaters is undoubtedly a distinctive feature: family-friendly animated movies, often more than 4,000; summer heavyweight popcorn movies, about 3,800 are the universal standard; horror movies are of the order of magnitude It is less than 3,000 rooms, and less than 2,000 rooms are also common.

Now, "Interstellar Crossing" only has 3,592, which is only less than a hundred more than "Tan Mi". This is also one of the important reasons why the major news media generally suspected that this work might be an abandoned son after the film was confirmed to be filed. Even if it is not an abandoned son, it also shows that Warner Bros. lacks confidence.

In a horizontal comparison, the "Edge of Tomorrow" two years ago is like this. The number of screening venues is about 3,500; for reference, the theater venue of "Inception" is 3,790. Two homes.

It can be seen that the number of venues for the above three works is lower than the average level of summer commercial works. From a data perspective, it is only a difference of two hundred to three hundred. The possible difference is the central region. In some small towns, this has minimal impact on the box office-but who can know? Who can be 100% sure?

The only thing that can be explained is that Warner Bros’s market estimates for sci-fi movies are still slightly conservative. Even after "Edge of Tomorrow" and "Inception" have created outstanding results, the publicity department's box office data for "Interstellar" The estimate is still slightly conservative. This mentality is also concentrated in the official box office forecast of Warner Bros.

Sixty-five million dollars!

It is not 100 million US dollars, nor 80 million US dollars, but only 65 million US dollars. Such an ultra-low figure makes all netizens and viewers fall through.

But in fact, people in the industry believe that this is a very appropriate number.

Although "Edge of Tomorrow" once created a box office miracle of 138 million in the premiere weekend two years ago in the same period, it was born with a box office box office of the 22nd film history; However, don't forget the "Inception".

Nolan called Leonardo DiCaprio, Joseph Gordon Levitt, Alan Page, Marion Cotillard and other actors to form a team comparable to the "Avengers" Starlight Cast of "Alliance" produced this work. Under the cover of 74 points in the media review, everyone believes that this film has all the elements to detonate the market, and it can be said to be highly anticipated.

In the end, the premiere box office of Inception was 62 million.

Of course, "Pirates of Dreams" is still relying on its super word of mouth to sweep the box office data of 290 million US dollars in North America, and its performance in overseas markets is even more impressive; but the objective fact is that such brain-burning science fiction movies are premiering. The weekend really lacks explosive power, and more still needs to use the stamina after word of mouth to complete the box office breakthrough.

"Interstellar" can be compared to "Inception" from all aspects. Then Warner Bros. gave a box office forecast of 65 million for the premiere, which was a little conservative but nothing.

The box office forecasts of relevant professional media also expressed support for Warner Bros.

The "Chicago Sun" box office forecast is the highest bidder in the first round of preliminary estimates: $80 million.

"The current Nolan is not the 2010 Nolan. Similarly, the current Hall is not the 2012 Hall. The two top filmmakers in the Hollywood pyramid have proven themselves through one work after another. When Nolan and Hall partnered in 2014, the sparks they collided were undoubtedly explosive in the market."

They mentioned a very important thing: When "Edge of Tomorrow" was released, although "Love Crazy" and "Speed ​​and Excitement/Love 5" had achieved good box office, Lan Li was a "Summer novices" who have never taken the lead alone, from art films to commercial films, no one can be sure whether the audience will enter the cinema for the name "Len Li-Hall"; but now the situation has changed dramatically. , The excellent box office of the two works "Gravity" and "Drunk Country Folk Songs" is the best proof.

So, "Interstellar Crossing" has no reason to be an exception.

"Rolling Stone"'s box office forecast number created the lowest forecast in the first round: 25 million U.S. dollars.

There were no errors in printing and no errors in the magazine forecasts. This is the correct number. Obviously they did not miss a zero.

"Everyone has overlooked the fact that when '2001: A Space Odyssey' and'Blade Runner' premiered that year, they didn't get the treatment they deserved -'Blade Runner' was even criticized as A super bad movie, and the box office performance of both works is very bad. This also proves that classic science fiction movies that transcend the times often cannot adapt to contemporary aesthetic needs.

The success of "Inception" comes from the fantasy construction based on human real life, and under the environment of "interstellar crossing" leaving the earth and entering space, can the "brain burning plot" presented by Nolan still be accepted by the audience? ? Moreover, when "Gravity" has just dedicated the best space scene in film history, it is even more difficult for this work to make a **** road in the summer file. "

From the vague feedback of the internal trial screening, to the temporary file transfer for half a year, to the absence of the blue gift in the promotion stage... "Rolling Stone" believes that there is a sense of anxiety in all aspects-perhaps "Interstellar Crossing" can still be completed by word of mouth. Turning over, but it is difficult to break the shackles of the current era during the premiere weekend: this is an age where wine is fragrant and the alleys are deep, even Marvel movies cannot be guaranteed, and the box office of each work will be successful. , Then why can the signs of Nolan and Lanly say that they can "finish the final word"?

The views of "Chicago Sun" and "Rolling Stone" are reasonable, and the forecast data of other media can also refer to:

"New York Times", 55 million.

"Los Angeles Times", 40 million.

"Hollywood Reporter", 60 million.

"Variety Show", 60 million.

"Empire", fifty million.

The forecast data of the mainstream authoritative media are all concentrated between 40 million and 60 million. On the whole, it is relatively average. It is not too high or too low, and it is basically consistent with the official forecast of Warner Bros.; so; The curve of feedback and media review is also somewhat similar-the main opinions are all concentrated in the middle area, not up and down, ambiguous, and lacking a fierce confrontation between love and hatred. It seems that everyone is trying to find a more suitable and more accurate one. Way to comment on this work, but in a short time it was impossible to determine it.

Then, that's it.

In fact, people in the industry are looking forward to the emergence of a hit work more than anyone. Since the 2014 summer archives were unveiled, there hasn’t been any work whose premiere weekend box office has exceeded the 100 million threshold. This is really disappointing. All the highly anticipated works unfortunately lack explosive power, which also makes the summer files a bit dull.

So far, the best-performing work at the summer premiere weekend is still "Captain America 2," 95 million, which is so close but so far away from the 100 million threshold.

In addition, there are three other works whose premiere box office exceeded 90 million ~ lightnovelpub.net~ followed by "Captain America 2"-"Godzilla" and "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" , "X-Men: Reversing the Future", but the premiere data of the three works are all between 90 million and 93 million, failing to make a breakthrough.

Everyone is now discussing: Can the box office of any other work this year break the 100 million threshold? If "Interstellar Crossing" fails the hope, "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Transformers 4" seem to lack a little champion. Should they expect "Teenage Ninja Turtles"?

After the official debut of "Interstellar Crossing", all aspects of word-of-mouth feedback have been eye-catching, which has also made the major news media slightly increased their expectations-perhaps, they underestimated the work; perhaps, Nolan After all, the chemical reaction with Lanly can trigger a market boom; perhaps, they can expect unexpected surprises?

Like Warner Bros., people in the industry are also waiting for the emergence of dark horses. Otherwise, such a lifeless summer vacation is really no fun at all.

This can be regarded as... Looking forward to being slapped in the face?

However, judging from data such as popcorn index, theater scores, etc., "Interstellar" is more likely to resemble the second "Inception" than the second "Edge of Tomorrow".