The Rebirth of the Financial Hegemon

v3 Chapter 62: root of the problem

When a **** can't explain that he is a hooker, the best explanation is to pretend to be a hooker.

Zhao Jiangchuan was pretending to be forceful, pretending to be sophisticated.

For him, it was not a piece of cake to do an afterthought.

So, George King is very confused.

George King is an Englishman, a true Englishman.

He could understand every word Zhao Jiangchuan said.

But after those words formed into idioms, George King was just dumbfounded.

This is more embarrassing.

Fortunately, there is another Zhang Xiaolei next to her.

The extremes of things will reverse, and the prosperity will decline.

The meaning of these two idioms can be understood as long as the Chinese people hear them.

Zhang Xiaolei thought a lot.

There has never been a dynasty that lasted forever.

There seems to be some kind of rule.

No matter how powerful the dynasty is, it cannot avoid the day when it comes to an end.

Don't say far.

Modern times are stronger than the Soviet Union, but they are not suddenly falling apart.

The same is true of business cycles.

Even in the United States, the world's largest economic system, unemployment has remained high in the past few years, and many real estate companies in the United States are facing bankruptcy due to the recession of the US economy.

Well-known ones, such as the Trump Organization, almost went bankrupt amid the slump in housing prices.

Real estate prices in Thailand have been growing slowly since 1980.

If you compare the house prices in 1980 with the previous peak price, it is a full forty-fold increase.

This is a terrifying increase.

Such a terrifying increase seems to be in line with the sign that things must turn.

Zhang Xiaolei's thoughtfulness helped Zhao Jiangchuan to cover up the embarrassing situation of failing to pretend to force.

George King is more tragic.

He could see that Zhang Xiaolei seemed to understand something.

But he still didn't understand anything.

Aside from being stunned, he had no idea what Zhao Jiangchuan was talking about.

Am I not as good as a fresh graduate, or do Chinese people have a gift for understanding the economy?

George King has some doubts about life.

After thinking hard, he could only speak again.

"Zhao, if I'm stupid, can you explain a little more clearly."

George King's tone had never been more respectful.

For him, being hit again and again in the professional field made him see his own inadequacy.

He desperately wanted to know where he went wrong, more like to make up for his own shortcomings.

At this time, George King no longer had the arrogance of the nobles, nor the treacherous and cunning bankers.

He is like a best student, asking Zhao Jiangchuan for the knowledge he most desires.

Zhang Xiaolei and George King's reactions made Zhao Jiangchuan almost stop laughing.

How to fool someone if you want to fool?

The best way is to let the person being fooled think for himself.

The more you think, the deeper you sink.

Zhao Jiangchuan was well aware of this.

Just like in the stock market.

According to the news that appears in the market, many people can't help thinking about how this news will affect the market.

After the Chinese New Year, the sales volume of the shopping mall has increased greatly, and the stock of the shopping mall will definitely rise sharply.

If oil prices drop, airline costs will drop, and airline stocks will soar.

Similar phenomena abound throughout human progress.

When a person's thinking enters the right direction that he thinks, he will always find countless reasons to convince himself.

George Jin Yuluo, Zhao Jiangchuan forced a smile and asked back.

"George, where does Thailand's economic growth come from?"

Thailand, including most countries in Southeast Asia, has an opportunity for its economy to take off because of its cheap labor and cheap raw materials.

In this context, a large amount of foreign capital began to enter these countries.

Among them, the capital inflow of Japanese consortium is the largest.

Japan is a developed country.

This means that Japan is extremely expensive in terms of both labor and material value.

To save costs, large-scale Japanese companies relocated to these Southeast Asian countries.

Fundamentally, it has promoted the rapid economic leap of Thailand for more than ten years.

George King graduated from economics and has many years of research in the financial industry.

Of course he knew all this.

However, he still can't understand the logic of Zhao Jiangchuan's ability to see through the collapse of Thailand's real estate.

George King wondered.

"Thailand's economic growth mainly comes from foreign capital injection, but this has nothing to do with the collapse of Thailand's real estate industry.

A large amount of capital has been injected, the Thai economy has been fully developed, and the per capita income has increased, so the real estate in Thailand should continue to rise.

Clearly an upward trend. "

"George, you're right, but are there trends in this world that never change?"

This time, George King understood.

Although this sentence and the opposite of things are actually not very different in meaning.

Under Zhao Jiangchuan's explanation, George Jin frowned.

"I understand what you mean, but according to the trend of Thailand's real estate industry at the time, there is no sign of turning down at all. How did you expect it to suddenly collapse?"

I'm hooking, of course I know.

Zhao Jiangchuan wanted to know how George King would react to what he said.

But unfortunately, no one can tell this kind of thing.

In order to satisfy George King's thirst for knowledge, and in order to pay for a very valuable coolie, Zhao Jiangchuan had to continue to fool around with what he had.

"George, don't you understand? I didn't predict that the Thai real estate industry would collapse, but the Thai government wanted him to collapse."

"Om...".

George King's brain suddenly exploded.

He seemed to understand a little what Zhao Jiangchuan meant.

Zhao Jiangchuan didn't stop. While George King was stunned, he continued to talk.

"George, haven't you noticed that the Thai economy has been overheating in recent years, and in order to cool it down, the Bank of Thailand raised the lending rate to more than 8 percent.

In terms of benchmark interest rates, the external interest rates of major commercial banks have reached 12 percent.

The purpose, I think you understand, is to curb the excessive speculation of capital, hoping to limit the inflow of capital into the stock market and real estate with high costs.

But the Bank of Thailand has overlooked that when the spread widens, it will attract a lot of arbitrage funds.

Those funds profit from borrowing capital from overseas to lend to Thailand.

It would fundamentally exacerbate the total value of the baht in circulation.

I think you understand why I am bearish on Thai real estate. "

Of course George King understood.

If he didn't know it now, Zhao Jiangchuan would not have promoted him to be the global CEO of Standard Chartered, and he would not have wasted his time talking so much nonsense.

The problem is the currency.

The expansion of the total circulation value of the Thai baht means that the Thai baht is over-issued.

On the gold standard, currency issuance is based on gold reserves.

However, under the credit standard, the issuance of currency is entirely based on a country's economic, political, technological and foreign exchange reserves and other comprehensive factors.

The comprehensive level of Thailand ~lightnovelpub.net~ is not enough to support the current total circulation of Thai baht.

When Thailand's ability to earn foreign exchange through exports cannot keep up with the issuance of baht, the contradiction will be magnified infinitely.

Thailand operates a fixed exchange rate system.

When capital flows out of Thailand, the Bank of Thailand is under enormous pressure.

And the pressure will get bigger and bigger.

The circulation of Thai baht is expanding.

According to the relationship between supply and demand, when the issuance of the Thai baht expands, the value of the Thai baht should depreciate.

However, the fixed exchange rate has locked the devaluation of the Thai baht.

This will cause the foreign exchange reserves in the hands of the Bank of Thailand to make ends meet.

To solve this problem.

The only way is to shrink the amount of money put in.