Chapter 125 Amazing Foresight

Zhong Shi knows that the economies of Southeast Asia have developed rapidly in recent years, and several countries or regions such as Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore were once called the Four Asian Tigers, while Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines were called the Asian Tigers. The economic growth of the four Asian Tigers was once called the "Asian Miracle". But behind this prosperous background, there is a large inflow of foreign capital, especially Japanese capital, the year-on-year increase in the deficit in the balance of payments, the huge increase in the fiscal deficit, and the reduction in foreign exchange reserves.

To put it simply, economic growth depends on the inflow of foreign capital rather than the increase in production levels. This kind of growth appears to be very prosperous on the surface, but in fact there is a fatal problem, that is, these funds flow into these countries in the form of their own currencies. They are domestic, and once the foreign exchange market fluctuates violently, this short-term capital will have a panic outflow, which in turn will cause a fatal blow to the real economy of these countries.

In fact, hedge funds in later generations aimed at this point, first launched an attack on the Thai baht, then the Indonesian rupiah, and then set off a wave of attacks on currencies in Southeast Asia, and finally swept the entire East Asia region, even Japan. have all been affected to some degree.

Zhong Shi only knows that in 1995, the famous economist Krugman repeatedly advocated that the so-called "Asian Miracle" model was only built on sand The "miracle" in life cannot last long at all. Naturally, the Southeast Asian currency crisis that followed and the financial crisis that followed brought him global fame, even though he was already a well-known economist in the United States by then.

  At this time, someone has already predicted the crisis of the economic model development in Southeast Asia? Zhong Shi was quite surprised. Judging from Zhong Yi's tone, it seemed that an Asian economist had discovered it first, which made him even more surprised.

  In fact, Krugman later admitted that his theses on the Asian model were based on some research results of Liu ZY, so it is not an exaggeration to say that Liu ZY was the first person to predict the Asian financial crisis.

   Liu ZY is the professor at Stanford University who wrote "The Sources of Economic Growth in East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries", and one of the few Chinese economists who gained international reputation in the 1990s.

Zhong Shi hastily flipped through this paper, which didn’t have many pages. Although he didn’t understand many of the terms, he still understood the core meaning. It was basically the same as what economists analyzed after the Asian financial crisis Pretty much, but the difference between top economists and average economists is that one is a seer and the other is hindsight.

   "Can you recruit this economist to me, and give me an annual salary." Zhong Shi read the last page, looked straight at Zhong Yi, and asked with hope in his eyes.

  For an economist who can accurately analyze the world economic situation, any large financial institution will give sky-high annual salary and huge dividend reward without hesitation. In addition to hiring excellent economics professors in universities, they will also recruit relevant research talents from large institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

   Therefore, when Zhong Shi saw such an excellent economist, and he was a Chinese economist, he was even more moved by his love for talents, and wanted to recruit him as soon as he opened his mouth.

A look of embarrassment suddenly appeared on Zhong Yi's face. Unlike Zhong Shi, he was closer to the academic world, knowing that not all people in American universities are willing to enter the business world, like Liu ZY It is even more impossible for the professor.

  In the United States, the social status of celebrities in academia is no worse than that of the presidents and CEOs of large institutions, because this is a society with multiple values, and money is not the only measure of success.

   "Why, you also think this article is valuable?" Zhong Yi's embarrassment flashed across his face, and he changed the subject. "Not to mention whether we can persuade him, but what name we use to persuade him is a problem."

  After thinking about it carefully, Zhong Shi understood, yes, they are purely "stragglers" now, it's just that the amount of funds is a bit large, but they haven't even established a formal company. Just because of this, it is difficult to convince a professor of a well-known university. Besides, even those well-known hedge funds do not need such professional talents. Most of them use the analysis reports of well-known investment banks.

   "Do you want to speculate in the Asian region?" Seeing Zhong Shi pondering for a long time, Zhong Yi inevitably asked a little anxiously. He knew exactly what Zhong Shi had done in Europe.

However, Asia, especially East Asia, is very different from Europe. Political and business relations here are very complicated. For example, Indonesia has been controlled by the Suharto family for a long time. The energy that these forces can use is beyond the imagination of ordinary people, otherwise the prime minister of a certain country would not have threatened Soros with harsh words like the gangster leader.

  Zhong Yi is very worried that Zhong Shi will attack the currencies of these countries in a feverish manner, which will cause them great trouble. You must know that their current base is in Hong Kong, which is not far from these countries.

   "How is it possible?" Zhong Shi laughed and said something perfunctory.

Zhong Yi still doesn't believe it, he can't fathom the courage of this cousin. You must know that this young man who is less than 18 years old dared to bet heavily on the capital market a few years ago and won the first prize in his life. After the bucket of gold, it became even more unscrupulous. Recently, it has developed to dare to attack a country's currency system.

  Seeing that Zhong Yi still had a suspicious look on his face, Zhong Shi quickly raised his hand: "I promise it's okay! As long as there are any big actions in the future, I will take you with me, isn't it okay?"

   After receiving this reassurance, Zhong Yi put away her doubts and looked at this three-bedroom, three-bathroom, two-living apartment again. This apartment was decorated in a European style before, but Zhong Shi felt various inconveniences shortly after he moved in. The previous owner paid too much attention to luxury, so Zhong Shi simply underwent a major operation to change the decoration into a simple one. style.

  The floor is paved with bright teak wood, and the walls are covered with smooth marble. The whole apartment is mainly in black and white, which looks extremely simple and neat. On the ceiling and walls are all Italian handmade chandeliers, revealing a little luxury in simplicity, showing the owner's considerable financial resources.

   "How wonderful it would be if I had such an apartment!" Zhong Yi looked around and said with sincere emotion.

   "No way?" Zhong Shi said in surprise, "You can spend unlimitedly from the family fund, why can't you afford such an apartment, not to mention here, even Manhattan is enough."

   "Uh..." Zhong Yi turned her head to avoid Zhong Shi's eyes. "I have to tell you something. A few months ago, I took a sum of money from the family fund and invested it in U.S. crude oil futures, and it turned out to be a mess."

   It's no wonder that seeing Zhong Shi's brilliant record, Zhong Yi is also a little ready to move. A person like him who has studied economic theory naturally hopes to show his skills in actual combat. It’s just that he didn’t know that theory and practice are completely different things. Even a great economist like Fisher, even when he predicted the Great Depression in 1929, he still lost all his wealth and finally died in poverty. .

Zhong Shi couldn't help but want to laugh. If he didn't know the direction of future generations, how could he get so much profit in the rapidly changing financial market, just like the eve of the Japanese stock market crash, how many people would have thought that the index would go all the way from 38,000 points? It took a sharp turn and fell to more than 10,000 points now.

   Even if it is predicted that it will collapse, it is impossible to know the exact time of occurrence. It seems that Liu ZY and Krugman are aware of the occurrence of the Southeast Asian crisis, but they and other economists who hold the same view cannot guarantee when this crisis will occur.

   "How much did you lose?" Zhong Shi didn't care about this gain or loss at all, but if it just hit Zhong Yi's enthusiasm for investment, it would be a bit outweighed by the gain.

   "A lot, a few million dollars! I was long, but then I don't know what happened, the oil price suddenly fell, resulting in insufficient margin behind me, and then I was forcibly liquidated." Zhong Yi said with a bit of disappointment.

"A few million dollars? It's not much, let's take it as a lesson!" Zhong Shi laughed loudly. He can think of what the situation is now. Hedging is done on the monthly contract, and there is not enough balance left as a reserve fund. In the case of daily liquidation of futures, a slight price fluctuation in the opposite direction will cause a shortage of reserve funds, and it will not be able to pay in time The margin will be forcibly liquidated by the relevant brokerage companies and exchanges.

This is not the most serious situation, the most serious is liquidation, all positions will be forcibly closed at that time, maybe the remaining money is not enough to pay the final loss, in this case, the customer who opened the account can only continue to pay related losses.

  Of course, under the mechanism of daily settlement and forced liquidation, except for the reverse operation of heavy positions and large fluctuations in the underlying price, the situation of liquidation generally rarely occurs.

Zhong Shi didn't know what the situation of Zhong Yi's operation was, but the worst situation was just a liquidation situation. He didn't care about this little money, but seeing Zhong Yi's listless look, he still comforted him. : "After my school year is over, I will show you how futures are played. Then we will go to the New York Mercantile Exchange to do a big job, just wait and see!"

   "What?" Zhong Yi, who was still annoyed, was taken aback, he didn't expect that his complaint would provoke Zhong Shi to take action himself.

   "Not bad!" Zhong Shi walked to the window, looked at the high-rise buildings in downtown Chicago, and said with pride, "Let me show you what it means to manipulate the market!"

   Thank you very much for the monthly ticket support of Wei Mi and Shihuangtian! At the same time, thank you for poisoning you thousands of times and making me think about it many times! I hope more book friends can support this book~thank you~)

  

  

  (end of this chapter)