Chapter 139 Position Exposure

  The number of trading lots on this trading day exceeded 150,000 lots, an increase of 0.47%, and closed at $18.99 per barrel, which still did not reach the integer point under the counterattack of the bears.

   The two consecutive days of upside failed to make the oil price finally break through 19.00 US dollars, which cast a shadow over the subsequent trend. The trading volume exceeded 100,000 lots in two days, and the settlement price still did not reach the integer point, which gave the market the most direct understanding of the determination of the short sellers.

  According to the usual practice, NYMEX announces the positions of each member after the end of trading every day, and the position of HSBC increased by more than 10,000 lots out of thin air, which immediately attracted the attention of all parties in the market. Since HSBC's business is mostly carried out in the UK and Southeast Asia, analysts have speculated whether it is an oil merchant from the UK or an oil merchant from Southeast Asia.

Although I don't know the specific direction of these positions, but in connection with the market trend of this day, a discerning person can easily conclude that these 10,000 lots are all short positions, because although there were as many as 150,000 lots traded on this day, the price of oil The trend is still rising. In this case, if you want to get a position of 10,000 lots, shorting is the biggest possibility.

   Could it be that some funds from Southeast Asia have entered the market? Compared with Southeast Asia, there are quite a few futures brokers with a British background in NYMEX, so market observers subconsciously think that it is funds from Southeast Asia.

  Affected by this, the November crude oil contract fell in the next two days, but it did not fall much under the condition of long positions, and finally closed at $18.72 a barrel on Monday, October 4.

  Under this circumstance, HSBC's position has neither decreased nor increased, which makes market observation confused again. Could it be that this is really a hedging producer? You must know that 10,000 lots are 10 million barrels of crude oil. If it is really a hedge, then these empty orders will be held for a long time, and there will not be much trouble in the short term.

After two trading days with a trading volume of less than 100,000 lots, rumors appeared in the market that the main force of the short sellers was unable to suppress them. In addition, the market was indeed in such a direction that some followers who were not afraid of death chose to enter the market, and these people The short-term market trend is determined when the long and short have no time to fight.

  In just four trading days, the price of crude oil rose from US$18.72 on October 4 to US$18.88 on October 8, an increase of US$0.16 per barrel, or 0.85%.

Although most of the market is operated by small funds and following trends, the main force of long and short positions has been paying close attention to market trends. Oil prices push up or suppress several prices.

  Although the bears have gathered some funds, the main force of the bulls avoids fighting, and the bears have no better solution for the time being. You must know that the previous operations of the two parties in the oil index market caused the main short sellers to lose at least more than 200 million US dollars in those two days. Although most of these funds are still in the futures market, it is still hard to say when they will change hands.

On Monday, October 11, the oil index opened at US$18.94 per barrel, which was US$0.06 higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day. look forward to it.

   "It will be $19.00 soon, shall we suppress it?" Li Mingyang looked at the trend on the screen and asked worriedly.

  As expected by analysts, Zhongshi’s funds did establish a short position of 10,000 lots, with an average price of around $19.10. Seeing that the oil price was approaching their average position of opening positions, Li Mingyang became a little worried.

   "Let's take a look first and then talk!" Zhong Shi said absently, "We won't be called for margin for the time being, and the number of positions has no effect. Besides, isn't there still the main short seller!"

   It’s just that in the eyes of those small funds, a position of 10,000 hands is definitely the main short position. You must know that the total number of positions in the market now does not exceed 400,000 lots, and 20 short positions like Zhongshi are enough to cover all short positions.

  Following the trend and some main bulls entered the market one after another, further driving up the price of the oil index, but soon some shorts also entered the market, and the two sides started a small-scale fight, and the oil price was always hovering around $19.00.

Seeing that no one can do anything to anyone, just when Zhong Shi and others thought that the oil price trend of the day was about to end near this price, a purchase order for 3,000 lots suddenly appeared on the purchase price list. Less than half an hour before the end, all the sell orders sold by the short sellers at $19.00 were absorbed, and then two buy orders totaling more than 4,000 lots appeared, which further raised the oil price to $19.05.

  The sudden jump immediately attracted the attention of the market, and a large number of intraday positions also swarmed into the single column of the selling price, causing oil prices to rise again one after another.

   "What should I do?" Seeing that the price was approaching their average opening price, Li Mingyang couldn't sit still, and hurriedly asked Zhong Shi. After all, his structure is still a bit small, and he didn't know that even if he suffered some losses, Zhong Shi wouldn't take it to heart.

   "The short-term short positions in the market have been covered?" Zhong Shi also felt that it was sudden. Now that the long and short sides are at a stalemate, it is not easy for him to absorb short positions from the market. But now he has an excellent opportunity, even though he knows that the bears must have set up a defense line at the following price. "Nothing to do, let's continue as much as you come!"

   Zhong Shi took over the order again, just to let other short sellers see clearly, he just wanted to be strong short. In fact, both the bulls and the bears stood still during this period of time, because they were also afraid of the movement of funds of unknown origin some time ago. Right now, taking advantage of this opportunity to express one's position can be regarded as an official appearance in front of all forces.

"Short open 10,000 lots, and defend at the price of 19.10!" Placing an order of 10,000 short lots at this price is to prevent the bulls from suddenly throwing a large amount of buy orders to engage in a blitzkrieg. This is a necessary measure. If the oil price does not rise If it reaches that price, it will naturally not be sold.

"Short open 1,000 lots, try the lot size at $19.07!" Following Zhong Shi's order, the 1,000-lot short order caused the price of crude oil to stagnate in November. After staying at this price for a few minutes, the short lot size It was only consumed, and the oil price jumped another price.

"Open another 2,000 short lots!" Seeing that the short order was consumed within a few minutes, Zhong Shi ordered to place an order again. Of course, this was to consume the buying orders of the long positions, and was going to give some information to follow suit, that is, the short position can tolerate the rise That's the end of the price range.

  After a total of 3,000 consecutive selling and opening orders were thrown down, the real-time price chart on the electronic screen stopped for a few seconds before jumping out of the number of hands of both buyers and sellers. On the selling price side, there are 2,478 pending orders, while on the buying price side, there are 541 lots. The bulls clearly showed the posture of the end of the battle.

  Seeing that the effect is not bad, the price of crude oil futures stays at 19.08 US dollars, and at this price there are still nearly 2,000 empty orders that have not been filled. As the transaction status jumped on the screen one after another, the price of crude oil also jumped down two prices one after another. That said, not only did the bears hold the $19.08 level, they also swept away buy orders at the two levels below.

  The trading volume continued to increase in the past few minutes, but the counterattack of the bulls will come soon. After all, it is impossible for them to turn the market around, otherwise all previous efforts will be wasted.

   "Sell 5,000 lots at $19.08." Zhong Shi didn't have time to scan the orders below with other short sellers, but instead defended at a high position. Zhong Shi knew very well that the bulls would not stop there.

   Sure enough, the counterattack of the bulls came soon, and more than 2,000 pending orders at the selling price were instantly filled, and the oil price rose again to $19.08.

  However, at this price, they soon encountered the defense line that Zhong Shi had set up long ago. The 5,000-hand short order will definitely not be able to be traded in a short while, and there is not much time left for long transactions.

The bulls launched several air strikes here, but Zhongshi also continued to increase positions to consolidate the defense. Oil prices fluctuated between $19.08 and $19.07 in the last few minutes of trading, but until the end of the final transaction, the bulls never broke through The line of defense set by Zhongshi here, the final oil price closed at $19.07.

On this day, several accounts of Zhongshi finally received more than 6,000 short positions, with an average price of 19.07 US dollars. In addition to the originally established short positions of more than 10,000 hands, his position increased to nearly 20,000 hands. , the average price also dropped to around $19.09.

In the next eight trading days, the bears, including Zhong Shi, continued to attack the bulls, and finally successfully brought the oil price back to around $18.50 on the last trading day of the November contract. Shi's position has also been established to about 80,000 lots. Both parties have no intention of delivering in November. In the end, the two parties smoothly moved the contract to December.

  The average price of Zhongshi’s 80,000 contracts is around US$18.80, and the margin cost exceeds US$200 million, making HSBC’s seat the largest position announced by NYMEX. Most observers in the market believe that this is indeed a hedging order of oil companies, otherwise it is impossible for any institution to hold such a large position.

   It’s just that no one expected that this is indeed speculative funds, and it is also speculative funds that are not small, and Zhong Shi is waiting for an opportunity, waiting for the appearance of a black swan in the market.

  The December contract fluctuated wildly, and was finally delivered on November 19. Because the 24th and 25th of the next week are Thanksgiving in the United States, NYMEX will be closed during this time, and according to the rules of crude oil futures trading, the December contract will be delivered on the 19th.

The price of crude oil futures dropped from $19.39 in November to $17.47 in December. In all trading days of the December contract, there were 10 trading days where the original price fluctuation exceeded 1%, which shows that the long and short sides are fighting The intensity of the fight, and this kind of fighting caused the increase in trading volume, which also allowed Zhongshi to absorb enough empty orders in the market.

When the January contract was extended, Zhongshi’s several accounts held about 150,000 contracts in total, including 130,000 crude oil futures contracts with an average price of $18.50. About 20,000 lots, the most surprising thing is that these are empty orders!

   Thank you very much book friend Duyou Wanbai for always paying attention to and supporting this book! In the recent rewards, this book friend always failed to get it because "today's book review rewards are full for ten times"... The rewards are issued automatically by the system. The author has neglected a lot in the past. I will pay more attention in the future. Welcome everyone to come and accept the reward~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)