Chapter 157

Hedge funds who are optimistic about the prospects of the US-Japan negotiations have made a big bet on the yen, but who would have thought that the Japanese government would really be tough for a while, and the result is that they have suffered huge losses. The bet reached as much as US$8 billion, and lost US$650 million in the two days of February 9 and February 12. In addition to the losses on the yen futures, there are also a lot of option premiums in vain.

  Quantum Fund’s position on the yen this time is comparable to the position established when it attacked the British pound, but the result was quite different, and it suffered a lot of stumbles. However, the Quantum Fund has a lot of money and has made a lot of money in the European bond market before, so there is no big problem in terms of liquidity and profitability, but other hedge funds have big problems.

In this way, hedge funds hold a large amount of bond futures positions, and some also hold long-term bonds, and then also hold a huge short position in the yen. First, the Fed raised interest rates, causing them to lose a handful of bond futures, and then Losing a large sum of money on yen futures made their original small funds a little stretched.

If they hold the current yen positions in their hands for a long time, then they may return to the original exchange rate level, because the Bank of Japan will not sit back and watch the yen appreciate, but it does not know how long it will take, and the future of the yen will It will not continue to appreciate and no one knows. For safety reasons, they can only admit it and leave.

In the internal system of Tianyu Capital Management Company in Hong Kong, the net value of Tianyu Global Macro and Tianyu Commodities has come out, showing 1.07, which means that in less than a month, these funds have made a profit of 70 million Dollar.

However, apart from the net worth, the specific situation of the holdings is invisible to others. This is also where Zhongshi is brilliant. If there are too many, there will be problems.

"My God!" A researcher who invested in an internal fund was the first to discover this situation, and immediately shouted out of composure: "It's only been a while, and I've made so much money. If we follow this profit method, then Isn't it going to double by the end of the year?"

"What's the situation?" Hearing his loud shout, the other researchers hurried over. Four or five people watched the screen for a long time before they found the change in net worth at the bottom, "Which fund is this? How did you achieve profitability in such a short period of time?"

These research teams have not been established for a long time, and the use of funds is still in the initial stage. The most used fund has not used more than 50% of the funds. According to the above, half of the funds of 100 million US dollars will be 50 million. US dollars, and the realized profit of 0.07 is a profit of 7 million U.S. dollars, which is 14% of the profit according to the ratio of funds used.

  These thoughts flashed through the minds of the researchers, and they were stunned. But the next words of the researcher who first discovered the change in net worth made them even more surprised: "No, this is not those funds, but global macro and commodities."

"Ah? These two funds?" After being silent for a long time, the first researcher who came to his senses muttered to himself, then seemed to remember something, and asked the researcher beside him in disbelief: "Listen Is it true that the combined size of the two funds is a billion dollars?"

"It seems to be..." The researcher who was asked smacked his lips and muttered subconsciously: "With a principal of one billion U.S. dollars, earning a 7% return, that is 70 million U.S. dollars..." It has to be said that even industry researchers , What he does every day is quite different from traders, but after all, he is in the financial industry, and his sensitivity to numbers is no less than that of his fixed-income counterparts. The researcher immediately reacted: "70 million US dollars, isn't it...isn't it equivalent to the size of our entire fund?"

Several other onlookers nodded, obviously agreeing with his statement, but they knew very well that this was because of the large scale of the fund, so a slight change in the income would be a change of tens of millions of dollars. The rate of return was not that scary. After the initial shock, several people began to study the most likely source of this benefit.

"In my opinion, it should come from the bond market. Didn't the Federal Reserve raise interest rates recently? It is said that the yields in the long-term treasury bond market have begun to rise slowly. Besides, only this market can accommodate so much money!" a researcher said convincingly Said.

"This is not necessarily the case. It may be in the crude oil market. The price of international crude oil has fluctuated violently recently. Maybe it was a short-term entry and caught a wave. Besides, the crude oil market is so leveraged, maybe it doesn't take much money to... "

"Don't be stupid, how is it possible! If these are floating profits, wouldn't they be gone in two days? According to my opinion, it might be from the appreciation of the yen. Just make an off-market option Earning so much, who would have thought that the Japanese would be so tough?"

"I'm afraid you are all wrong. It is possible to invest in gold. The bond market is unlikely. Although the yield has risen, it has not yet risen to that point, and it is not certain whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in the next step. Now it is said to enter It is still too early to raise interest rates. In addition to commodities, the market that has fluctuated so much recently has only the appreciation of the yen, and the uncertainty of the yen is too great. If there is a little manipulation in commodities..."

   "I think it might be copper..."

   Several people couldn’t convince anyone. After a heated debate, they didn’t come to a definite conclusion in the end, but it’s easy to handle, as long as the net worth is refreshed on the next trading day, you will know. Because if you invest in the commodity market, there will definitely be unfinished positions, and the profit situation will change with the price changes, and you will understand when the time comes. At the same time, several people also agreed to observe several markets with large trading volumes, hoping to find out which market fluctuations are most similar to changes in net worth.

It's just that there is a misunderstanding in their thinking, that is, what these funds can invest in is only a single financial product in such a short period of time, so these people are smart enough to find out the specific situation of their holdings, but Zhong Shi How can I let these people see it? Not to mention that most of the funds of these two funds are self-owned, and even the net worth is released under his instruction.

Sure enough, in the next few days, the researchers carefully watched the changes in the net worth of the two funds, and found that there was no change at all. After discussing privately, they came to two conclusions, or the money had already been pocketed. For safety, or the person in charge of the fund intentionally does not disclose the net worth.

   "I heard that these two funds are only open to our own people. Is this true?" After a day of work, several researchers gathered in a bar in Lan Kwai Fong to chat.

   The bar is buzzing with people, the lights are feasting, and young men and women are swaying their youthful bodies wantonly, making various provocative poses. This is a famous **** hunting place in the city, and some very high-quality working men and women often appear.

These researchers came here to pick up girls after work. Practitioners in the financial industry are under a lot of pressure to survive, so the indulgence after get off work is even more crazy. Those on Wall Street have even more terrifying decompression methods. Some people play extreme sports. , There are crazy promiscuity, and some even drink and drug.

"Yes, didn't you say it when you first came in?" A young man with waxed hair said disdainfully: "But I still don't believe it. Now it seems that our boss is really powerful. This is clearly for us. Benefits!"

"But..." The person who spoke shook his head and said worriedly: "Our base (basic salary) is definitely at the first-level level, even those big investment banks on Wall Street can't compare, and once you invest in this internal After the fund, everything will be halved, which is hard for people to accept. I'd better take a look, after all, I don't know how long it will last!"

   "I won't talk about this after get off work!" Several people talked for a long time, and one of the researchers who had been silent all the time suddenly said boldly: "Today I treat guests, everyone can drink as you want!"

He invested some of the money he earned in the past few years into this fund, a total of 200,000 U.S. dollars. In just one month, he made 14,000 U.S. dollars, which is equivalent to 100,000 Hong Kong dollars, which is enough for him Be proud.

   Seeing that there was someone paying for today's drink, several people stopped being polite and waved to call the bartender over...

Zhong Shi, who is far away in the United States, naturally does not know that his actions have caused several researchers inside to invest their own funds, but these funds are just small benefits he seeks for this group of people, and he himself does not see it. What worries him more now is the market conditions in the bond futures market.

   Establishing a short position of 40,000 lots of bond futures, Louis and his team began to keep an eye on the movements in the U.S. bond market, and at the same time make trading strategies based on corresponding changes. As a result of their entry, the price of the 10-year Treasury note has moved slightly, from 106-16 to 106-30, which means that the yield on long-term Treasury bonds has fallen, contrary to Zhongshi's original expectations.

"What's the latest news about interest rates?" Zhong Shi didn't have any classes this afternoon, so he drove to the city. As soon as he entered the trading room, he saw his traders nervously looking at the computer screen in front of them. At the same time, several traders were talking loudly into the microphone, as if they were asking the floor brokers for quotations.

There are four types of brokers in the U.S. capital market, the most common of which are brokerage companies, others have brokerage channels similar to financial institutions, and there is another kind of floor broker, which has great energy. Sometimes a Brokers trade as much as some smaller brokers.

"There is no news, but the broker in the field said a few days ago that he could provide us with leverage, so let's not talk about it now!" Louis made a rare joke. Seeing that there was no smile on Zhong Shi's face, he closed it wisely mouth.

In his opinion, this is a joke, because he has a lot of funds reserved in his hands, and there is no need to add another layer of leverage from the floor broker or brokerage company, but Zhong Shi is keenly aware of these words. unusual.

"This is a signal!" Zhong Shi said to Louis with a solemn expression: "It shows that the brokers on the floor have begun to predict risks and are unwilling to leverage their clients anymore." After finishing speaking, he looked at his face meaningfully Louis, who was in deep thought, saw that he hadn't reacted for a long time, and continued to explain: "The brokers on the floor saw the rising trend of bond yields, and they would call for margins from their customers, which then caused a chain reaction. That's clear. Bar!"

  (end of this chapter)