Chapter 159 Counterattack

  The US market is temporarily supported, but the European market is miserable.

   Although the central banks of Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Belgium have lowered short-term interest rates, indicating that they are not worried about the danger of inflation, and therefore there is no reason for long-term interest rates to rise, in fact, long-term interest rates in their countries are slowly rising.

The logic of the entire financial world is no longer what the central bankers expected. After suffering from the Fed’s interest rate hike and the loss of the yen, hedge funds can no longer care about the fundamentals of Europe. What they want to do now is to start from Europe pulled out and brought the dollars home.

When Zhong Shi came to the trading place the next day, he saw three red-eyed traders looking at the screen excitedly. As soon as he opened the door of the room, the three traders cheered, and then the three Jumping up and down in front of him as if asking for credit, he scrambled to say:

   "Zhong Sheng, the bond yields in the German market have risen by two basis points!"

   “Italian markets are up 6 basis points.”

   “Spain rose 4 basis points.”

"U.K…"

  …

  Zhong Shi was taken aback for a moment, and then realized that the hedge fund was about to withdraw from the European market, so he asked with a smile, "How much did we earn?"

A change of two basis points means that the price of the 10-year term has fallen by close to 0.2, which is 200 marks when converted into currency (the leverage has been calculated). The leverage given by the German bond market is 50 times, but in order to avoid risks, Zhongshi left The next part of the funds will be used as a backup to compress the leverage to 40 times.

   “The German market earned around 1 million marks, with a yield of around 10%.”

   "The Italian market earned 4 billion lire, equivalent to more than two million U.S. dollars, with a yield of about 18.5%."

   "The Spanish peso earned more than 400 million pesetas, which is equivalent to more than three million U.S. dollars, and the yield is around 15%."

  …

"Okay, you can go to rest, thank you for your hard work, I will send you a big red envelope after this wave of market prices passes!" Zhong Shi couldn't see the slightest joy on his face, but deep down in his heart I am ecstatic, the course of history is really as originally imagined, and the capital of the United States has begun to withdraw from Europe.

  The three traders left happily. They were tired after a busy night. If they hadn't rushed to announce the good news to Zhongshi, they wouldn't have waited until this time. This kind of work intensity is nothing to them, and they have been there for several days in a row, but since the big boss spoke, they went to rest happily.

   After other people operating the U.S. bond market arrived one after another, Zhong Shi and Louis started the day's operation together.

  …

   "Hachikawa, what on earth did you do? You allowed the yen to appreciate so much in one day!" Prime Minister Hosokawa in Tokyo, Japan, was angrily yelling at a group of cabinet ministers next to their seats.

This is a conference hall of the Prime Minister's Office. In addition to the Japanese foreign minister, the central bank governor, the finance minister and other senior government officials present, there are also many famous big figures such as the presidents and presidents of automobile companies. At this time, all of these people He lowered his head, not daring to face the prime minister's anger.

"Tell me, what should we do now?" After venting his evil anger, Prime Minister Hosokawa finally calmed down, and sat down on the sofa in the middle: "Tell you one more thing, the Americans are actually on the plane A wiretapping device was installed, which was just discovered by the Ministry of Defense, and it is no wonder that the Americans know the bottom line of this negotiation well."

  His words surprised the people present again. Regardless of maintaining some etiquette in front of the prime minister, these well-known figures in the Japanese business world began to whisper to each other. The occurrence of such a thing is especially unacceptable to these Japanese elites whose self-confidence has just inflated.

Throughout the 1980s, under the double stimulus of the economy and the stock market, the Japanese's confidence was extremely inflated. As a result, as soon as they extended their tentacles to the mainland of the United States, they were severely hit twice by the Americans with financial weapons. Forced appreciation, followed by the opening of the financial market, the final result is that the Nikkei index fell from the highest point of nearly 40,000 points to the current 19,000 points.

But even after suffering such a heavy blow, Japan is still in a surplus in the international trade between the United States and Japan. Now the United States is going to start in this area again. Yuan suddenly appreciated. If the yen appreciates to 80:1, none of the auto companies present will be profitable.

   "The central bank will take action on the yen and maintain the exchange rate at 110:1 for some time to come." After a long silence, the central bank was the first to express its opinion, which is also their job.

   "What else?" Hosokawa breathed a sigh of relief. At least one aspect of the problem has been solved for now. "What about the rest, the Americans are threatening us with unilateral export sanctions. What's the opinion of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs?"

"Delay as much as possible. If it is impossible, the auto industry can only use American parts." The answer from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not what most people expected. This is also the consensus of all the Japanese elites present. After all, they are politically weak and economically. Too much reliance on exports, so the final result still has to be subdued. Now it depends on who is the first to take a step back.

   "No, no..." Hosokawa stood up and walked back and forth two steps, "This situation of giving and asking can no longer exist. We must teach the United States a lesson and tell them that this is not their back garden."

"Fight against the United States? Is this possible?" Hirocho Fujii of the Ministry of Finance asked, "not to mention that the economic aggregate of the United States is much larger than ours, but the strength of the US dollar is far from being able to resist the current yen. They casually cast a signal in the foreign exchange market, and thousands of banks and financial institutions will operate it, and our Japanese consortium has no power to fight back at all.”

   What he said was the truth, leaving everyone present speechless for a while.

  After being silent for a long time, a weak voice suddenly sounded: "Maybe it's possible!"

As soon as the voice fell, everyone's attention was focused on the speaker. This was a middle-aged man wearing thick glasses. Seeing so many big men all staring at him, he couldn't help but feel a little at a loss. He waved his hand and explained: "I just said that there is such a possibility..."

   "Who is this?" Prime Minister Hosokawa couldn't help but feel moved when he saw his face flushed. He looked at the other people present, but most of them shook their heads, indicating that they didn't know him.

"I am Jun Inagawa, an economist at Nomura Securities. I am in charge of researching the North American market. The current US economy..." The middle-aged man stood up and introduced himself first. After a pause, no one interrupted his speech , ready to continue talking.

"Wait, you guys continue to discuss. I still have a meeting. People from the Bank, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Finance will follow up on this matter." Prime Minister Hosokawa suddenly interrupted Jun Inagawa's speech, and then said something After some confusing words, he left the conference room without looking back.

  Following his departure, several ministers also found excuses to leave, leaving only a large group of business people and a lower-ranking official from the Ministry of Tibet in the conference room.

"What... what's going on here?" Inagawa Jun obviously didn't understand what was going on. When he saw the disapproving expressions of the leaders of the big companies present, he felt more puzzled. point.

"Inagawa-kun, you continue to say that politicians have this virtue and dare not offend Americans." The president of the Bank of Tokyo, Sukeo Takemiya, glanced disdainfully at the officials of the Ministry of Finance who stayed in the conference room, "This is the politician essence!"

Since the Japanese stock market turned around, the Japanese political arena has changed frequently. The prime minister has changed one after another like a revolving lantern. In addition, Japan has implemented a democratic system after World War II. Therefore, these big entrepreneurs do not have a high degree of awe of the prime minister, let alone a What about the little Ministry of Tibet officials?

  The official's face twitched, and he turned his head away as if he hadn't heard anything. He was thick-skinned, knowing that the person in front of him could not be offended. Having said that, thick-skinned is also one of the compulsory lessons for politicians.

Seeing that no one else had any comments, Jun Inagawa continued: "At present, the US government is worried about the risk of domestic inflation, so it suddenly announced an interest rate hike on February 4. This was originally a signal to the market that the Fed has noticed the risk of inflation. But first, it will inevitably have an impact on the bond market, and second, it may cause financing difficulties for the liquidity of the real economy. But this is great news for Japan."

"What we can do is to launch a financial war without gunpowder. The main battlefield is the bond market. Due to the appreciation of the yen, we sell a large number of US treasury bonds in the market at this time, causing the entire market to turmoil, and then deposit the exchanged U.S. dollars into the U.S. banking system, increasing the risk of future inflation, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates again, and then sell them, and such a cycle of operation will finally make the long-term U.S. interest rate reach a new height.”

"In addition, we can also short the U.S. Treasury bond futures market and the European Treasury bond futures market, forcing dollar capital to flow back to the United States and increasing liquidity in the United States. In this way, the Fed is under double pressure from domestic and foreign markets. , it is very likely that interest rates will be raised to an unimaginable level.”

Jun Inagawa, who talked eloquently, was completely immersed in the blueprint he had drawn, and he didn't even realize that the faces of all the big consortiums, clubs and others present had changed. At this time, a thought arose in the hearts of these industry giants. Are financial wars really that powerful? How can a few terms force the United States to raise interest rates?

   "Mr. Inagawa, according to your estimation, how much US dollar capital will the United States eventually lose?" After a long silence, someone finally asked the common question in everyone's mind.

  Jun Inagawa was stunned for a moment, then bowed his head and calculated for a long time, and then said with some uncertainty: "If my calculations are not wrong, the US will eventually lose hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds alone."

  As soon as his number was reported, there was a gasp of exclamation in the conference room.

   It’s almost Chinese New Year, coding is not easy, and there will be no internet at that time, so I have to code all the chapters of Chinese New Year in these two days.

  

  

  (end of this chapter)