Chapter 180 Empty Compromise

On May 24th, Tuesday, the two sides regrouped and started a new round of competition. On this day, the bulls once pushed the price to $2,335, and the shorts once suppressed the price to $2,262. Finally, the two sides reached $2,288. The opening price position of the stock market has reached a compromise, and this day has dropped by 10 US dollars compared with the previous trading day, and a K-line chart of a cross is drawn on the disk.

On May 25th, Wednesday, the two sides repeated the situation of the previous trading day again, and the market still showed a cross shape. The two sides reached a balance at the position of 2274 US dollars, and the number of trading lots reached 90,000, more than the previous trading day With 10,000 lots sold, the two parties have reached an intangible consensus on this price, that is, option shorts will close their positions at such a price.

Sure enough, in the following other trading days in May, the price of copper futures has been hovering above $2,300, neither rising sharply nor falling for a long time. Finally, before the arrival of June, these option shorts gradually converted their short positions into short positions. The horizon fell.

No one knows exactly how much the option shorts lost in this battle, but Zhong Shi roughly estimated that he made less than $100 million in floating profits throughout May, while the other main bulls were about the same. With this figure, it is believed that short sellers lost around $1 billion throughout May.

  …

Entering June, Zhong Shi began to gradually close out the contracts of the near months, and at the same time bought a small amount of long contracts of the far months, and gradually pocketed the floating profit. This process may last for a while, and Zhong Shi did not make much effort to operate.

From June 1st to June 6th, Zhong Shiping lost about 17,000 lots of the June contract, with an average price of about 2,242 US dollars, and added 43 million US dollars to his account. This part is real money, but it has not yet arrived. When it was hot, Zhong Shi put the money into the spot copper market again, and delivered about 800 lots of spot copper, making his current stock of spot copper reach about 40,000 tons.

40,000 tons of spot copper, less than 2,000 lots in the futures market, cost Zhongshi a total of 100 million U.S. dollars in cash, of which the delivery funds accounted for 90%, and other expenses such as management fees, warehouse rental fees, Delivery fees and so on account for the other 10%.

Andrew was quite puzzled by Zhong Shi's actions. He simply believed that there was no need to hoard spot copper at all, because the copper futures market was very liquid, with a daily trading volume of at least 50,000 lots, and a large position would be sold within a week. It can all be cleared.

  Zhong Shi was noncommittal to his thoughts, and he didn't need to explain his intentions to Andrew. Moreover, most of this part of the funds comes from Skyline Financial Company, and only a small part is the capital of Tianyu Fund.

  …

On Monday, June 6, when the traders of Sumitomo Corporation confirmed that they had cleared all their option shorts and left the market, they immediately yelled in the trading floor regardless of their image. Some people even took off their shirts in excitement, naked The upper body was frantically pouring champagne to celebrate.

This operation could not make them unhappy. After a month of fierce fighting, they finally forced more than 40,000 options shorts that had newly entered the market to liquidate their positions. In addition, some of the main short sellers also Choose to admit defeat at this time. As a result, the average loss of the entire settlement short position in May exceeded 200 US dollars per lot. According to the estimation of Sumitomo Corporation, the loss of the short position that recently left the market alone reached as much as 300 million US dollars.

  For the 300 million U.S. dollars, Sumitomo Corporation earned close to 100 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 30% of the entire settlement amount. This is a figure that is enough to shock everyone. And behind it, it is the result of the concerted efforts of Hamanaka Yasuo and his team.

"Hamanaka-san, what should I do next?" While many low-level traders were still celebrating wildly, Kenjiro Oshima came to Hamamaka Yasuo's office and saw the face of this heavyweight who had a pivotal position in the market. He still had a flat expression on his face, so he wisely put away his complacent expression and changed to a business-like tone.

"Won't the market respond enough to seeing the bears lose so badly in May?" After pondering for a while, Hamanaka Yasuo finally showed a smile on his face, "I have made up about 10,000 lots recently. Long positions, you should know what to do with the rest!"

In Binzhong Tainan’s plan, forcing option shorts to admit defeat is only the first step. In fact, during the pull-up in mid-May, his view on June copper has changed. The price of multiple options has skyrocketed, but even so, the trading volume of options is showing signs of enlargement.

The most important thing is that the fundamentals of the market support future copper prices. With the recovery of the entire world economy, the demand for copper, one of the most important raw materials for infrastructure construction, is also increasing. At the same time, other non-ferrous metals Metal prices also rose. According to Hamanaka’s preliminary estimate, the price of copper should be around US$2,500 per ton, which is still a long way from the current US$2,200. It is precisely because of this judgment that he boldly entered the market again to increase his position.

  Sumitomo Corporation holds positions in different proportions according to the distance of the month, while others make their own choices in the month with the best liquidity and the largest trading volume. This time, the contract in early June was evened out with the opponent, and the remaining positions began to move to the copper futures contract in the second half of June and July.

"..." When Oshima Kenjiro heard what Hamanaka Yasuo said, he was stunned for a moment, and then he realized that all this had been planned by Hamanaka Yasuo. Take action.

   Thinking of this, Kenjiro Oshima's back burst into cold sweat. He was very glad that he was following Yasuo Hamanaka. If he wanted to fight this Mr. Copper, he might not even know how to die.

"In addition to these, I also found that there is another long position in the market that is quietly building positions. You should pay attention to the recent market conditions. I am not sure whether this long position is the force that suddenly closed its position some time ago, but they have enough We have to guard against this!" Hamanaka Yasuo saw that Oshima Kenjiro's reaction was a bit sluggish, and he didn't take it seriously, and after giving Oshima half a minute to react, he continued.

  After hearing what Hamanaka Yasuo said, Oshima Kenjiro reacted from his sluggishness, and quickly agreed: "Yes, Minister, I will pay attention."

  …

In the United States, Quantum Fund is also celebrating internally, but they wait until after the market closes to hold a small party, because they will continue to trade the next day, but even so, the traders are still drunk , left the **** in twos and threes.

  Drukenmiller was not with these traders. In fact, he was still holding relevant investment meetings with department heads to arrange the next trading plan.

"According to our news in London, it was Sumitomo Corporation's funds that forced the option shorts some time ago. They have reaped a lot this time. Some people say that it exceeds 100 million U.S. dollars." The information obtained was described in detail, while the others listened carefully.

   "Is there any news about their next move?" Druckenmiller frowned, and then asked. However, after he asked this sentence, he felt that something was wrong. News like this is seen in the market every day, and most of them are just speculations, so they can't be taken seriously at all. Even if there is some degree of credibility, it is absolutely impossible for top-secret information such as operation direction, strategy and specific positions to be leaked.

   Sure enough, the supervisor who was questioned shook his head, indicating that he had not received any news about this.

Seeing this reaction, Druckenmiller's face became a bit more dignified. Although Quantum Fund did not aggressively increase the price of copper in the last few trading days, it took advantage of this time to level out a lot of previously established funds. However, the price of copper futures did not drop much, which made him a little more in awe of the copper futures market.

This time they also made a profit of more than 100 million U.S. dollars, but this was far from enough to make up for the losses caused by the foreign exchange market before. However, in terms of other financial products, Quantum Fund has also made a considerable amount of income, and the situation is slowly improving. However, Druckenmiller still faces a lot of performance pressure.

After listening to the analysis of macroeconomics, non-ferrous metals and energy, Druckenmiller decided to continue to be long on the copper market. His reasons were similar to those of Hamanaka Tainan who was far away in London, but in his trading plan , There are other trump cards that have not been used.

"We have already sold a lot of contracts in June, and the profit will continue to be invested in the mature copper market. According to our research report, the current reasonable price of copper should be around 2,400 to 2,600 US dollars per ton, and the market still has a lot of room for growth My personal view is that before July, when the US economic data for the second quarter comes out, we still have to be firm in doing more.” Druckenmiller finally set the tone for the meeting.

  The two giants made the same decision at the same time, which also determined the trend of copper futures in June to a certain extent.

  June 6th, Monday, the price of copper futures closed at 2248 US dollars. With the large-scale liquidation of contracts in May and early June, bulls and bulls began to wrestle in the contracts in mid-to-late June and July.

As a result, on June 7, copper futures prices rose by $40. On June 8, Wednesday, copper futures prices rose again by $87. On June 9, Thursday, copper futures prices rose again by $15. The intraday price once reached $2,415. It closed at $2390.

However, this large-scale increase has nothing to do with Zhongshi. After closing out the June contract, he only added part of the position to the July contract, because he can no longer see the future trend clearly, which also missed This time the crazy rise. When Zhong Shi reacted, short sellers also began to suppress the price of copper futures, and the two sides started a new round of stalemate fighting.

   The author will try his best to write well, I hope everyone will support, thank you~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)