Chapter 186 Two-point market view

  After the end of the day, market reports were quickly sent to the desks of major fund managers, who more or less held many positions in the copper futures market. It has to be said that these elites do not focus on a certain market most of the time. Non-ferrous metals are only a part of their investment strategy, and the positions they occupy are only a small part of their total positions. Just like the famous Druckenmiller, he is not only responsible for the capital operation of Quantum Fund, but also pays attention to his own hedge fund from time to time. But no matter how busy they are, these people still pay close attention to the trend of the copper futures market.

  There is no other reason, it is because the price of copper futures rose too strongly this year, which made almost all hedge funds set their sights on this market. From the average price of US$2,000 per ton at the beginning of the year to US$2,600 per ton today, the increase in copper futures has exceeded 30%. In other words, if we only operate with the leverage provided by the exchange, the profit of the first-hand contract at the beginning of the year has reached an astonishing $15,000, while the margin only needs $4,500, and the yield exceeds 300%.

   Such a rate of return is extremely conspicuous in any capital market, and it is no wonder that many fund managers are focusing on the copper futures market. And more importantly, the liquidity of the copper futures market is very good. Even when they are in the wrong direction, these hedge funds can stop losses and leave the market in time.

Of course, all of the above are ideal situations. In fact, the standard contracts in the copper futures market are all three months old. At a certain time, positions need to be changed. They cannot be held for a long time, and it may not be time to enter the market again. It is possible to open a position at the lowest price, so even if you do it in the right direction, the profit is not as exaggerated as in the ideal situation.

  But for American hedge funds, these are not problems. They can use the leverage provided by brokers to increase their positions again, and generally they can achieve 30 times leverage. If their accounts are doing well, the broker may offer more of their own funds to use with these funds, not to mention higher leverage.

CARL&PAULASSETMANAGERMENGTCOR. (Carl and Paul Asset Management Company) is such a hedge fund that uses high leverage. Since the beginning of this year, they have gained more than US$5 million in the copper futures market. This is a fund management scale of only 10 million It is already a very good result for a US dollar fund. For Karl Jackson, one of the fund managers, he is already fantasizing about launching one or two more funds in the coming year.

   "Mr. Carl, here is the report you want!" After the main transactions of this day were completed, it was already the beginning of the night, but the temporary leased office of Carl Paul Company in London was still a busy scene. The traders also acted as temporary analysts. They were responsible for summarizing the trading data on non-ferrous metals from major investment banks and securities firms and handing them over to Carl Jackson, who was in charge of formulating trading strategies for the next day.

  Carl Jackson is in charge of commodity trading at this hedge fund, while another fund manager, Paul Rilke, is in charge of investing in the US capital market, specifically the stock market. He did not come to London.

   "Goodman's report... Oh my god, it's shit!" Karl Jackson took out the analysis report of the commodity department of Goodman Investment Bank on the market of the day, and shouted exaggeratedly after reading it for a while.

  The traders who finished the transaction and Carl were discussing the intraday situation enthusiastically. When they heard what Carl said, they couldn't help but glanced at each other and smiled knowingly.

Goodman Investment Bank is a well-known company on Wall Street and is known for its professionalism. However, at the beginning of this year, their flagship department, the fixed income department, suffered a huge loss. , which makes them a complete joke on Wall Street.

The reason why Karl belittled Goodman's analysis report so much was that, besides the fact that Goodman's analysis report was very unreliable, another reason was that he himself came from Goodman Company, and it was only because of the power struggle within the company that they This faction resigned collectively, which made him brood on his old club.

When the price of copper futures is very good, Goodman’s research report mentioned several times that the price of copper futures has reached expectations, and further rises are driven by pure speculative funds, which is prone to systemic risks, so it is recommended for customers to short and so on words. It roughly means that the price of copper futures has reached its peak, and those who are long should quickly close their positions, otherwise the risk will be great. The best way to invest now is to short copper futures.

This kind of analysis report runs counter to the trend of the market, but Goodman Investment Bank still issued similar reports one after another. Karl fully understands the intention of his old company. This kind of analysis report is to deceive those investors and certain funds who do not know the truth. Manager, in fact Goodman's commodity department is most likely quietly absorbing these long positions that have been thrown out.

  Is this operation legal? It is obviously misleading investors, but Goodman has never suffered a similar lawsuit, because the analysis reports they give are all suggestions and have no legal effect, and the release of this analysis report is for everyone. Commodity funds, while Goodman's commodity division and internal clients use a separate report, most likely very different from this one.

  There are so many nonsense analysis reports in the market every day, even if the regulatory authorities want to manage it, it is not easy. Because even if the same investment bank releases an analysis report on a certain day's market, the content may be contradictory. For example, it mentions strong growth momentum and then mentions paying close attention to systemic risks. Although the so-called analysis report has a lot of technical terms, the content is dumbfounding. Is it recommended to go long or short? I guess only God knows.

  Analysts have the most experience in writing this kind of report. Some of them can even publish hundreds of analysis reports a year, and an average of one can be published in two trading days. What's more, those "elites" with chief (cheif) economists and strategists are also unreliable. Some of their forecasts on the index can even be accurate to two decimal places. I really don't know where these guys come from Future Time Travel is still ready to manipulate the market to this price.

  So Carl's traders all smiled knowingly after seeing their boss's reaction, and they were no strangers to this situation. Although everyone works in Manhattan, these hedge fund guys feel an inherent sense of superiority over their investment bank counterparts, and they never lag behind when they laugh at them. "Stanley's report... Well, it makes some sense. It mentioned the follow-up impact of the Chilean incident, and it is recommended to hold it carefully." Carl picked up another research report, which was another Wall Street giant Stanley Company. An employee of Deman Company, he disdains this investment bank that has always had a competitive relationship, but now that he manages his own fund, he naturally needs to comprehensively analyze the market's views.

"Merrill Lynch...Solomon Brothers...Lehman Brothers...Deutsche...Brokers..." There was a stack of thick papers on the table, Carl read the research reports one by one, and then patted the table , interrupted the heated discussion among the traders, and then said slowly: "Integrating the reports of several companies, I found that most of them have a bearish view on the market outlook, and most of them believe that the price of copper futures will enter a period of adjustment, and the future rise There is not much room, and with the Fed continuing to raise interest rates, the world economy is saddled with a higher cost of capital..."

   "Boss, I don't agree with this point of view!" Before Carl finished speaking, a trader interrupted him loudly. Then the trader named Jerry saw that Carl had no intention of stopping him, and went on to say: "In the last five trading days, the price of copper futures has risen in four trading days. According to my analysis, the reason behind Chile's copper industry is There must be a lot of backs. I believe that the recent increase was also done by them. The current copper price has risen by more than 100 US dollars per ton compared with when the news broke out. I believe they are satisfied with this price. If I guess correctly, they will Large-scale liquidation will be carried out in the next few trading days."

Having said that, he paused, seeing that other people had no objection, and continued: "When they start to close their positions, it will not be too late for us to go long, because even in the process of their closing positions, they will still Keep a higher position. Afterwards, due to the long position of this stock, the price of copper futures may fall back, and it will not be too late for us to short again.”

   "What if the Chilean strike really takes place?" Jerry just finished speaking, and a trader immediately asked.

"No!" Jerry denied categorically, "This situation cannot happen, even if there are manipulators behind the news of the strike, they will never let the strike become a reality, because they simply don't have such great energy , the Chilean authorities will not allow the situation to get out of hand."

  Economic analysis has always been inseparable from political factors, especially in South America, where the political situation is extremely turbulent. Jerry studied international politics in college, so as soon as his words came out, other traders put aside the topic and began to ask other questions.

Fifteen minutes later, these traders asked almost all the questions, but Jerry resolved them one by one, and the reasons he gave were very good, basically convincing everyone, but in the end The decision-making power is still in Karl's hands, and all traders' eyes are on Karl.

"Just do as you said. Jerry, just come up with a plan, and we will operate like this within the next week. Be careful, it must be specific to each price and position!" Carl thought for a long time and confirmed this There are no loopholes in the analysis, and then the final plan is determined.

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  (end of this chapter)