Chapter 202 Borrowing

   In the final analysis, Tianyu Fund is just a hedge fund with a capital scale of about 2 billion US dollars. Although there are not many hedge funds with such a capital scale on Wall Street, it is nothing compared to a country's foreign exchange reserves.

The most important thing is that Tianyu Fund does not have any reputation in the international financial circle, and it does not have the energy to respond to everyone like Quantum Fund. It is impossible to attack a country's currency system, and it is the leader of South America, Brazil. monetary system.

Like what happened in 1992, first of all, there must be a problem with the economic development of a certain country, and behind this imbalance is a rigid and rigid exchange rate system. prerequisites for the attack.

  And in the process of the attack, the amount of funds of the attacking party far exceeds that of the attacked party, because as a country's regime, it is possible to mobilize funds from the outside at any time to protect its own currency. For example, the United Kingdom borrowed a large amount of U.S. dollars from countries such as Germany and the World Bank or large international financial institutions in 1992. If it were not for the fierce attacks of international hot money, it would be difficult to say whether the pound would be separated from the European exchange rate system.

   Therefore, when Zhong Shi told the news that Andrew had gone to Brazil, Gu Shizhong's first reaction was that Zhong Shi wanted to short the Brazilian real. But then he showed a embarrassed expression on his face, obviously thinking of how difficult it is to short a country's currency.

"Of course not!" Zhong Shi shook his head slowly, categorically denying Gu Shizhong's conjecture, "Although South America successively carried out financial liberalization in the early 1990s, and their currencies were freely convertible, most of them The currencies of some countries are pegged to the U.S. dollar. Although it is a fixed exchange rate system, these currencies still have futures trading in some currency markets. If I want to short a country’s currency, the best way is to open a position in IMM.”

  A look of shame quickly flashed across Gu Shizhong's face, and after an unnatural cough, he quickly returned to his usual expression. He thought for a while, and then continued to ask: "If it's not real, then Mr. Zhong wants to make coffee, or sugar, soybeans, corn and other crops?"

  Brazil's agriculture and animal husbandry are extremely developed, and it is a major producer of sugar, coffee, corn, soybeans and other crops in the world. These varieties have corresponding trading varieties in the Chicago futures market. Recalling that Zhong Shi had just finished trading copper futures on the LME, Gu Shizhong could easily think of similar trading methods.

   "No!" Zhong Shi denied again. He is a bit self-confident now, and it is difficult to explain what exactly he sent Andrew to Brazil. If it is said that the Brazilian stock market will plummet in the near future, everyone present will definitely not believe it, and will even ask him about the source of the news, and he will not be able to explain it by then. After frowning and thinking for a long time, he explained with some difficulty: "Because the U.S. economy is growing strongly, the economy of South America, which is their back garden, is also growing. Among these countries, the Brazilian economy is the largest, and the Brazilian stock market There are stock index futures, which can share the benefits brought by economic growth, so I sent Andrew to check and prepare to invest in the Brazilian market."

   It was also because of his quick response that he found such a plausible excuse in such a short period of time. Although several fund managers felt strange because the business of Tianyu Fund did not involve the South American market and lacked research talents in this field, there was nothing wrong with Zhong Shi's statement, because the economy of South America is very large. To a certain extent, it depends on the US economy.

Several major economies in South America and Central America, such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, etc., have encouraged the inflow of foreign capital after financial liberalization. Most of these inflows of capital come from the United States. Attracted more than 12 billion US dollars of foreign capital. These capitals closely link the economies of South American countries and the U.S. economy.

  When the U.S. economy experienced strong growth, the stock indexes of these countries all experienced growth to varying degrees, so Zhong Shi’s statement is not groundless.

Seeing that everyone stopped asking questions, Zhong Shi secretly heaved a sigh of relief, and immediately changed the subject, turning the focus of the discussion back to the game between Japan and the United States: "About the current trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, You can share your views."

  The negotiations on auto parts between the United States and Japan have lasted for more than half a year, attracting the attention of almost all relevant people in the world, especially investors engaged in related industries and paying attention to the exchange rate market.

"I personally think that Japan will compromise in the end. Although they have changed several prime ministers, they rely too much on the United States in terms of diplomacy and military affairs, and the current economic situation in Japan is not optimistic, even if they are replaced by large cars. The kidnapping of enterprises is still unable to compete with the United States. Although the two sides are at war, the Japanese side has shown timidity, and I think they only need to step down now." Hearing about the trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, Gu Shizhong resumed With the shrewdness of a fund manager, he analyzed the current situation between the two sides like a cocoon.

"I disagree!" It was Maxim who spoke this time, "According to the latest public opinion survey, Japanese people's favorable opinion of the United States has dropped to the lowest point in history. Under such circumstances, even the Liberal Democratic Party, which has always been pro-American, dare not Compromise with the U.S. and the recent appreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar has squeezed out a large part of the profits of Japanese car companies, so it is very likely that by the deadline of Section 301, neither party will be able to reach an agreement.”

  It is very rare for two extreme views on the same matter to appear, and it can also be seen that the United States and Japan have opposing attitudes towards this trade negotiation.

Zhong Shi knew, however, that in May and June of 1995, the two sides reached a compromise, and the final result was that both sides made concessions. The United States successfully allowed American-made parts to enter the Japanese market. In addition, other markets were kept, and both sides claimed that they withstood the pressure and won the negotiation this time. Of course, the Super 301 clause has not really been put into action, because once this clause is actually implemented, it will have an immeasurable impact on both sides, and even the United States and Japan will start a full-scale trade war because of this.

  But why the two sides reached a compromise, and what happened in the middle, which caused the always tough Clinton administration to abandon its consistent position, Zhong Shi didn't know, and didn't want to know.

Regarding the dispute between the two parties, Zhong Shi did not mean to calm down, but he analyzed the difference between the two from the perspective of investment: "Large car companies like Toyota and Honda have suffered the most in this trade war. It is the best time to short them. But we must also note that if the US and Japan reach an agreement, the stock prices of these car companies will soon return to normal levels. You can selectively invest in these stocks, but Be mindful of your timing."

"In addition, if the two sides start a trade war, then the export of Japan as a whole will be in a doomed situation, because Europe, like the United States, is very likely to follow in the footsteps of the United States and implement a trade war against Japan for the same reason. At that time, short the Nikkei The index will also have great opportunities, and the yen exchange rate will also fluctuate greatly, and there are also huge investment opportunities, what do you think?"

  At this time, Zhong Shi had given up the idea of ​​letting them participate in South America, because he really couldn't explain why there was a currency crisis. And the most important point is that their capital scale is very small, which does not help the overall situation at all.

Regarding Zhong Shi’s analysis, several fund managers nodded and said yes, similar to the conclusion of long or short car companies, they may also be able to draw a little analysis, but like Zhong Shi, from the height of a country to analyze the exchange rate and They are somewhat unable to draw conclusions from the index. This is not because they are incompetent, but because they usually study individual stocks and industries, so their grasp of the macro aspect will naturally be slightly insufficient.

  After saying another point of view of other markets, Zhong Shi announced the adjournment of the meeting. He originally convened this meeting to let everyone follow him into the currency market operations, but after talking for a while, he realized that his idea was a bit naive, so he gave up the idea.

Two days later, the heads of HSBC, Standard Chartered, Chase and other large commercial banks came to the office of Tianyu Fund at the same time. They came at the invitation of Tianyu Fund. The person who spread the word said that Tianyu Fund wanted to borrow money. , Thinking of this, several commercial banks have sent people with very high administrative levels.

For HSBC, Zheng Yang, the managing director in charge of the credit business, is an old acquaintance of Zhong Shi. Although the two parties only met once, when Zheng Yang saw Zhong Shi, it was like meeting an old friend. Shi was impressed by his public relations ability.

As for Standard Chartered, it is Zeng Yuanshuang from the Asia-Pacific region. This beautiful and exquisite lady is also an old acquaintance of Zhong Shi, and she is still the financial manager of Standard Chartered Asia-Pacific region. Compared with Zheng Yang, he is not inferior at all.

  Chase Bank, came a credit manager from the Asia Pacific region, a white manager named Jeremy. Compared with the heads of HSBC and Standard Chartered, this tall Caucasian manager has a much lower rank, and his attitude towards Zhong Shi is somewhat arrogant. He is from the headquarters in the United States, and he deals with those world-renowned funds on Wall Street. From the bottom of his heart, he looks down on the financial industry in Asia. Therefore, when Tianyu Fund invited Chase Bank, Jeremy was a little disapproving, but in the end Still came to the office of Tianyu Fund.

   "Oh my God, this place is really crude. I can't imagine that you are working in such a place!" After visiting the office area of ​​Tianyu Fund, Jeremy taunted unceremoniously in front of Zhong Shi.

  Hearing such extremely impolite words, Zheng Yang and Zeng Yuanshuang looked at each other, and both could see the banter in each other's eyes. They knew that Chase Bank didn't want to get the Tianyu Fund's list this time.

  Different from Jeremy, Zheng Yang and Zeng Yuanshuang both did their homework before coming here. Their private banks have invested part of their funds in the Tianyu Fund, so they have heard a little about the performance of the Tianyu Fund. In less than a year, the flagship fund of this fund company achieved an excess return of up to 90%. This performance shocked them. If the fund was not open to the public during this period, they would have invested their net worth in into this fund.

   Thank you book friend Jiangnan Liu Feiyan for your support! At the same time, I also thank all the book friends who have paid attention to this book recently, thank you!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)