Chapter 245 Short-term arbitrage seeking death

  The researchers who had finished their meal early were chatting in the trading floor, and the topic was naturally the girl who had dinner with Zhong Shi just now. Although most of these analysts deal with numbers on weekdays, once they gossip, they are no worse than teachers.

   "Guess, which of the two girls just now is Zhong Sheng's sweetheart?"

   "It goes without saying that it must be the taller one. Her skin is like creamy skin and her face is like a peach blossom. She is obviously much taller than the other girl. Only she can be worthy of Zhong Sheng."

   "That's not necessarily the case. Maybe Zhong Sheng likes chili peppers. I think the other one is also good."

  …

Generally speaking, these elites only see economic concepts such as investment cost and return income, and their way of thinking tends to be rational people in economics. They are not very interested in emotional things such as feelings. There is a reason for interest, it can only be a naked physical relationship. Indeed, such complex and messy relationships abound throughout the financial industry.

   There was once a famous joke about this kind of relationship in the financial industry: If you want a friend, get a dog, and if you want a dick, find a PR girl. Wife and girlfriend are temporary, only ex-wife and ex-girlfriend are eternal.

Although they disagree with Zhong Shi's behavior in their hearts, they dare not say it openly. This is not only because Zhong Shi has a different status in their hearts, but also because the whole society has a common value for having a complete family. know. Although Hong Kong is an international metropolis that can accommodate many values, this mainstream value is still recognized by all walks of life.

   Just as they were discussing, Zhong Shi, Andrew and others walked in. A group of researchers hurriedly stood up, and when a few bold ones were about to make some jokes, they saw Andrew behind Zhong Shi shaking his head slightly. He immediately shut his mouth tactfully.

   "Continue to implement the original plan!" Zhong Shi threw his whole body onto the sofa chair as soon as he entered the office, and said loudly angrily at the same time.

Andrew, who was following him, wanted to persuade him, but he swallowed the words. He didn't know how to say this kind of thing, and he didn't understand the specific situation, so he could only withdraw embarrassingly. office.

   Feeling Zhongshi's anger, Andrew returned to the trading floor and gave trading instructions to the researchers with a gloomy face. These researchers also lost the mind of gossip and began to operate in the foreign exchange market.

  …

  Although the Thai baht was pulled back to the normal fluctuation range during the daytime trading hours, the market generally holds a pessimistic attitude towards the Thai baht. Some analysts even pointed out that the Thai baht is not completely out of danger and may still be attacked.

In fact, the Thai baht is being attacked. Although the attack this time is not as fierce as last time, but because BOT's foreign exchange reserves are not much, the depreciation of the Thai baht is only in the past few days, which is only the most investment in the market. Those who are not clear.

   On this day, Thai Prime Minister Chavalit came out to stand for the Thai baht again. This gesture did not explain any problems, but aggravated the market's doubts about the Thai government's ability to maintain currency stability. According to the general logic, even if Mr. Prime Minister's words are not so convincing, the market will always react positively. However, due to the strong intervention of Tianyu Fund, this kind of reaction has not appeared in the foreign exchange market at all.

   "25.92, 10 million baht, no problem."

   "25.94, one billion baht."

  …

Soon, Tianyu Fund attacked again in the spot exchange market and the futures exchange market, selling Thai baht frantically. This time the intensity was obviously more crazy than the previous night. The baht was about to depreciate due to excitement.

The foreign exchange trading departments of those commercial banks that pay close attention to the changes in the exchange rate of the Thai baht soon realized that the short sellers were still relentlessly shorting, which confuses them a lot, because this is not in line with the normal reaction, but because there is room for arbitrage, they are also confident that the BOT They will enter the market to intervene, and they still carry out the trading of Thai baht in an orderly manner according to the original strategy.

  Time passed bit by bit, and finally at about three o’clock in the middle of the night in Hong Kong time, the Thai baht was still forced to the 26 baht to 1 dollar mark by the continuous selling pressure, and there were even quotations lower than this. With the decline in the spot exchange market, the baht forward contracts in the London and Chicago markets also fell below the threshold stipulated by the BOT, which means that investors are not optimistic about the future of the baht.

  Although there are traders operating on the BOT side, due to the pressure in the spot foreign exchange market, their promotion in the futures foreign exchange market has become meaningless. The solution to the spot foreign exchange market is to allow the BOT to increase the exchange rate again through large-scale purchases during daytime trading hours. This two-pronged approach can bring the price of the futures foreign exchange market back to the normal fluctuation range again.

  The foreign exchange market once again lost liquidity.

  But soon, there was a rise in the foreign exchange market, which was the entry of short-term arbitrageurs. Their strategy is very clear, that is, when the Thai baht in the spot foreign exchange market falls to the lowest point, they sell in the futures foreign exchange market, build a position at the lowest level, and then trap part of the profits through transactions in different markets during the daytime trading hours.

Because when the spot foreign exchange market falls to the lowest level, the price of the futures foreign exchange market also falls to the lowest level. In this position, BOT traders will definitely do whatever it takes to stabilize the price. At this time, their pressure is also the least of. Dealers in the spot foreign exchange market will not buy or sell Thai baht at a lower price. They can naturally stabilize the price of the futures exchange at this price. Even if there is a lower price, the amount will not be too large. The entire market knows that eventually There will also be BOT shots.

  The short-term arbitrageurs use the well-known psychology to buy quickly when the spot exchange rate is about to fall to the lowest position, and then wait until the BOT enters the market to intervene during the daytime trading hours and the entire exchange rate market rebounds to take the corresponding profit. This strategy requires ultra-fast short-term, because BOT futures exchange traders will not allow this kind of arbitrage behavior to divide their profits, and will definitely buy at the fastest speed at the lowest point of the market, and then wait until the daytime to sell .

  The competition between the two parties is the speed of the transaction and the judgment of the low position.

But having said that, both of them can be regarded as bulls in the market, and they jointly support the suppressed Thai baht, but most of the positions on the BOT side are based on hedging, and the funds used for this part of arbitrage are not That's a lot. However, short-term arbitrageurs need to fast in and fast out. When the profit rate reaches a certain level, they must close their positions and leave the market, because after all, this kind of behavior is dancing on the blade.

  The basis for supporting short-term arbitrageurs is that BOT must have sufficient ability to support the Thai baht in the spot foreign exchange market, otherwise everything is empty talk, which is why they want to do short-term.

In this way, the foreign exchange market rose slowly under the joint support of short-term arbitrageurs and BOT, and even pulled the Thai baht back to the level of 26.15 in a short period of time, which was much higher than the lowest intraday of 26.30 on this day. Obviously, this day Short-term arbitrageurs have invested a lot of money due to the influence of Thailand's speech.

   All of this was naturally seen clearly by Zhong Shi.

Zhong Shi, who had already taken a nap, only felt refreshed, and the depression in the evening had been swept away. Now that he looked back and thought about it, he also felt that he had gone too far. After asking a researcher who grew up in Hong Kong, "House After learning the meaning of "village", I couldn't say a word for a long time.

However, it is impossible to ask him to apologize at this time. After all, Zhong Shi is a person who is reserved on the outside and very proud in his bones, and the whole thing is just caused by Yuan Yunzhi's inner inferiority complex, and it has nothing to do with Zhong Shi relation. As for the knot between the two, it can only be solved slowly.

   Having figured it out, Zhong Shi pushed open the door and appeared in front of everyone, feeling indescribably at ease. However, the researchers in the entire trading floor were not so comfortable. They had worked for most of the night, and they were exhausted. All of them had red eyes and yawned profusely. A few relatively energetic researchers were arguing about the unusual rally in the foreign exchange market.

   "..." Zhong Shi carefully observed the transaction details, then remained silent for half a minute, and then slowly said: "This should be the behavior of arbitrageurs. Maybe they were confused by Thailand's statement."

  Among the researchers, some unconvinced people retorted in public: "Why is there no possibility of promoting the BOT? You must know that they are the most likely and should be promoted."

Zhong Shi chuckled, rubbed his nose, and after deliberating his words for a long time, he said in a discussing tone: "BOT is naturally the most likely, but don't forget, if they want to promote, why didn't they act yesterday? Fact Every time the price of futures fell to a certain level, they would intervene. Everyone, please think about how many hedging positions they should have accumulated in the market from May to now. I am afraid it is an astronomical figure. .The amount of funds they can use to intervene in foreign exchange is probably a very small part. I personally estimate that it will not exceed one billion U.S. dollars. , It should not be that they are doing their best, if this is the case, those who are still long on the Thai baht in the market can only be short-term arbitrageurs.”

  Although not all agree with Zhong Shi's point of view, those who hold the opposite opinion can't find a reason to refute it for a while, so they can only give up hypocritically.

  Zhong Shi chuckled secretly. Although these were analyzed by him, they were also combined with the experience of later generations. I am afraid that few people know about them now.

  As for these short-term arbitrageurs seeking death, Zhong Shi will naturally not care about him. As the saying goes: If you don’t die, you won’t die. Since they want to dance on the tip of the knife, they must be prepared to be cut or even killed.

   Thank you book friend Gambling Ghost, not me for voting for monthly support!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)