Chapter 256 The Thai Baht Crash (1)

From the beginning to the end, Ma Jiarui participated in the entire attack on the Thai baht. He knew very well how much Thai baht was sold by Tianyu Fund. Their family alone sold nearly 5 billion U.S. dollars in Thai baht currency in the last week. Let alone the other short sellers in the market.

  According to his estimation, at least more than 10 billion U.S. dollars worth of Thai baht has been sold in the market so far. This is the most conservative estimate, excluding the capital fleeing from Thailand. If this part is included, it may be more than 15 billion US dollars.

  Regarding Ma Jiarui's confident words, Ren Ruowei just shook his head, rarely rebutting. Because he knew that even if he wanted to say something, it would be too late now, because the arrow was already on the string and had to be said.

   I have to say that Ma Jiarui's estimate was quite accurate. At the BOT headquarters, Malaga was already anxious like an ant on a hot pot, and he didn't even have the time to sit down and catch his breath.

At this time, he kept calling the central banks of various countries in Southeast Asia, hoping to borrow part of the emergency funds from them to alleviate the urgent need in the foreign exchange market, but the other party either hesitated or refused flatly. In short, it all means the same thing: no money.

  Completely different from the attitude of harmony and common hatred in May, each family now obviously has an attitude of sweeping the snow in front of the door. This is of course related to the attacks on the Thai baht one after another, but it is more that these central banks have discovered that there have been unusual fluctuations in their domestic currencies in the forward foreign exchange market, which has made them vigilant and secretly accumulating dollars. , ready to fight the upcoming hedge funds.

  In this case, even if some short-term small dollar funds can be borrowed, it may not be enough for Thailand to defend its own currency.

   After making a round of phone calls, Malaga only got a little verbal promise, and the funds raised were even more pitiful, not even a billion dollars. He felt as if he had fallen into an ice cave, his whole body was icy cold, and he already had a premonition that something bad was going to happen.

On this day, international speculators suddenly launched a violent offensive again, selling a large amount of Thai baht in the foreign exchange market. Although the intensity of the attack and the scale of funds are far from the last time, the foreign exchange reserves owned by BOT cannot be compared with those in May. In comparison, in just one day, BOT's foreign exchange reserves have dropped to the warning line, that is, the amount of US dollars used for imports a month, which is a mere 300 million US dollars.

  Because Thailand is a major exporting country and is in a surplus in international trade, the standing currency reserve warning line is set very low, because there is a net inflow every month. But it is precisely this that shows that the current situation is very critical, even to the point of being on the verge of death.

  One person meditated in the office for a while, and Malaga finally realized that this day was inevitable. After he figured it out, he dialed the number directly to the prime minister's office.

   "Mr. Prime Minister, I'm afraid our foreign exchange reserves are no longer enough to support the fixed exchange rate system of the Thai baht." On the phone, his tone was emotionless, as if he was talking about something that had nothing to do with him.

Contrary to his reaction, Prime Minister Chavalit's tone was full of surprise, puzzlement and even anger: "What's going on? Didn't it say that it can last for a week? I swore to the outside world the day before yesterday Announcement, we are absolutely capable of maintaining the stability of the Thai baht, why are you saying this now, isn't it slapping me in the face?"

"Slap your face?" Malaka felt helpless, thinking that if hitting you in the face could stabilize the baht, then I would rush up and slap you hundreds of times without hesitation, but I didn't dare to say that Said, and replied with a bit of bitterness, "According to the original consumption rate, it could have lasted for a week. But for some reason, the sales in the market suddenly surged several times today. Just today, our foreign exchange reserves have been exhausted." There is not much left, and I am afraid that it will not last until the sun comes out tomorrow."

Chavalit on the microphone fell silent immediately. He already knew the purpose of Malaga's call, but he still had no decision on whether to immediately announce the devaluation of the Thai baht. After a long silence, he said: "This matter will take time to make. To make a decision, I will hold an emergency conference call, and you and the currency experts should be in touch at all times during this time."

   Malaga quickly replied: "I will stay in the office during this time, and draw up an emergency plan with the experts as soon as possible."

   Having said that, both sides are very clear about the current situation, where there is no emergency plan, and what needs to be done now is to deal with many aftermaths.

  …

   As for the Tianyu Fund, when it was time to get off work, Zhong Shi hadn't appeared in his office after many researchers had shifted their shifts, and everyone was inevitably a little anxious.

  When Zhong Shi was there, they didn't take it seriously. But now that Zhong Shi hasn't shown up for a long time, these people feel a little confused, and don't know what to do next. At this time, everyone looked at Andrew, and only he could barely calm the scene at this time.

In normal times, Andrew would just come up with an idea and ask everyone to operate according to the established strategy, but today's general direction is determined by Zhongshi. So far, it can be said that it has been completed in sevens and eighties. What should we do next? Let's go, we'll lose our minds once we wait.

   "Do you want to call him a few more times?" Ma Jiarui was very anxious, but he didn't show it on his face. He knows very well that at such a time, the more he can't show his expression, otherwise it will only increase the anxiety of everyone.

  The current operational decision has gone far beyond the scope of an ordinary fund manager, and has exceeded the size of all funds in Tianyu Fund. In the face of such a huge amount of funds, a fluctuation of one percentage point in income means tens of millions of dollars in profit or loss. Don't say that he has only one courage to make a decision at this moment, even if you lend him ten more courage, he will not dare to take it lightly. make decision.

   "No need." Andrew shook his head slightly, indicating that there is no need to do any more useless work. "If the current situation does not move, what is the worst situation?"

"Stand still?" Ma Jiarui thought for a while, and then called Ren Ruowei. The two discussed it for a while, and then said solemnly: "If we stand still, there will be a lot of short-selling power in the market. I don’t know if Thailand will step up its support and support the baht in the European and American markets. If that’s the case, we may suffer heavy losses when we wait until tomorrow’s trading time.”

"Heavy loss?" Andrew pondered for a moment, and then said, "Is it possible to increase the intensity of short-selling, so that the Thai baht can be maintained at today's exchange rate level? I think so, as long as we maintain the current exchange rate level, we can wait until tomorrow When Zhong Sheng comes back, just don’t make any big losses during this period of time. To tell you the truth, Zhong Sheng has encountered a little trouble. The matter is not small. I think he should be dealing with it right now. back."

Ren Ruowei and Ma Jiarui glanced at each other, knowing that Andrew's suggestion might be the best solution at present, they muttered for a long time before Ren Ruowei said: "The trading volume of the market at night is not too large, we must maintain It is still possible to stay at the current exchange rate level. We still have a little Thai baht position. As long as we sell it recklessly, I believe it can affect the market. As for futures exchange, as long as the operation is good, the two complement each other, and it should not be a problem to maintain it until tomorrow morning. "

Andrew looked at Ma Jiarui, saw him nodding, clapped his hands, and said, "Since this is the case, you can operate according to your ideas. I will visit Zhong Sheng's house to see if there is anything that needs help. If something goes wrong If there is any responsibility, I will take it with all my strength.”

  The three of them discussed for a long time, finally decided on a plan, and then split up.

At this time, Zhong Shi was sleeping soundly at Zhong Yi's home. He was really busy during this time, and he was exhausted after encountering today's unimaginable incident, so he entered the car in the car. Dreamland.

As soon as Liu Lan and Fu Hongzhuang saw this scene, they naturally wouldn't wake him up, so they took him all the way back to Zhongyi's home, and asked his attendants to carry him to rest on their backs, and then the two sisters-in-law and the whole family talked about it. Go through what happened that day.

  Mr. Zhong Fangzhuo was naturally angry and impatient. He lashed out at his two daughters-in-law and summoned the whole family to reprimand him. Then he went upstairs angrily, leaving a group of people at a loss.

Fortunately, this day was just a false alarm, and no one was really injured. The brothers Zhong Jianguo and Zhong Jianjun reprimanded Fu Hongzhuang and Liu Lan respectively, and then the whole family had a hasty meal together. rest. That night, in order to take care of Zhong Shi who had been sleeping all the time, Zhong Jianjun, Liu Lan and his wife rested at Zhong Yi's home and did not return to their own home.

  Andrew called Zhong Shi's house, so he couldn't be found, and even his servants didn't know where Zhong Shi went. The anxious Andrew thought of looking for Liao Xiaohua, and after traveling around Hong Kong Island for most of the night, he finally found Zhongshi in the middle of the night.

  Where did he think that after Zhong Shi woke up, the first thing he said after hearing his report was: "I got it!" Apart from that, there was nothing else to say. Andrew thought for a while, and didn't notice anything wrong, but seeing that Zhong Shi's face didn't look satisfied, he couldn't help feeling a little uneasy, and then asked, "Do you have anything to add?"

"Supplementary?" Zhong Shi shook his head, then stood up from the bed, stretched a lot, looked at his watch, and said, "No more! It must be a good time to encounter so many things today. Days. You have been running around for a long time, and you should be hungry, come and eat something with me, and we will go back later."

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  (end of this chapter)