Chapter 258 The Thai Baht Crash (3)

  Chapter 45 The Thai Baht Crash (3)

When the figure of Zhong Shi appeared in the office area of ​​​​the Tianyu Fund, almost all the researchers breathed a sigh of relief. They had a faint feeling that the attack on the Thai baht had reached a certain critical moment, and at this moment, The backbone cannot be missing.

  Zhong Shi's complexion was a little pale, the fright he had suffered during the day hadn't completely faded away, and coupled with the reverse jet lag and overwork during this period of time, his mental state was not very good.

  When Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei saw Zhong Shi's appearance, they didn't dare to ask what happened during the day, so they quickly explained the operation strategy they had set before, and then waited for Zhong Shi to give his opinion. Although the operation strategy they formulated was a continuation of Zhongshi's previous series of strategies, they were not authorized after all, and they would be responsible for any losses.

Who would have thought that after Zhong Shi had finished listening, he just nodded slightly without saying a word, which surprised Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei, and they looked at each other before Ma Jiarui asked: "Zhong Sheng, we Doesn't the operating strategy need to be adjusted?"

   "Adjustment?" Zhong Shi was taken aback, with a puzzled expression on his face, "Why? Didn't you do a good job? Besides, if we adjust now, I'm afraid the BOT will not give us time!"

   "What do you mean?" Now it was Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei's turn to be stunned. If they reacted with relief to Zhongshi's previous words, then they reacted with great confusion to the next words, why didn't the BOT give them time?

Zhong Shi stopped, saw the thoughtful expressions of the two, and realized that he might not have fully expressed his meaning, so he smiled slightly apologetically and said, "You three, come to my office together, Let’s talk about today’s market conditions first!”

  Before Zhong Shi left, he realized that there was another short-selling force in the market. It was the addition of this force that made him determined to defeat the Thai baht on this day. What he didn't expect was that after he left, the intensity of this short selling suddenly increased several times. If it weren't for the concerns about the high offshore lending rate, the Thai baht would have collapsed by now.

After listening to several people's summaries on today's foreign exchange market, Zhong Shi already had a preliminary understanding of the current situation, and was 80-90% sure that the Thai baht would collapse on this day, and said: "According to your ideas, when we add After the intensity of the short-selling, a large number of selling orders also emerged, and the intensity was comparable to ours, is that so?"

"Yes!" Ren Ruowei said impatiently with an excited look on his face, "According to our estimates, at least five billion U.S. dollars worth of Thai baht was sold today, pushing the Thai baht in the spot exchange market to the lower limit in one fell swoop. The foreign exchange market also saw a drop of about 3%, which obviously means that the market outlook is not optimistic about the Thai baht.”

Ma Jiarui is more mature and prudent, and he was silent for a while before he said: "My personal opinion is that today, because we coincided with another short-selling fund, we all chose to clear all the Thai baht currency today, so it will take a while for the BOT to cause damage. Such a big pressure to protect the market. But now we don’t have many positions in Thai baht, and we asked traders to clear all positions just now, so it’s very difficult to put pressure on BOT in the spot foreign exchange market right now. Is the next step going to be borrowing baht again?"

  Ren Ruowei, who was a bit of a creditor, showed a embarrassed look on his face. He just wanted to ask Zhong Shi for credit at the first time, and he didn't think about the next situation at all. At least from this point of view, Ma Jiarui thinks deeper and farther than him, so his own performance seems a bit naive.

Zhong Shi didn't notice the little thought between them. He lowered his head and thought for a while, and resolutely rejected Ma Jiarui's proposal, saying: "If I'm not wrong, the BOT will soon wipe out their European and American businesses. The long positions in the market will cause the futures exchange market to plummet at that time, and you can just make a lot of money by selling short futures contracts."

"These are all based on the fact that the Thai baht will collapse today." Ma Jiarui lowered his head and thought for a while, but still could not agree with Zhong Shi's conclusion, "Although the Thai baht is on the verge of fluctuations, it does not mean that the BOT has no ability to save the market. We can't place bets on an uncertain factor, which will create a lot of risk." At this point, he paused, organized some words in his mind, and then continued: "We have established before The short position is already risking the exchange rate rise, and it is completely in a loss state, coupled with the opportunity cost during this period, even if the Thai baht eventually depreciates, I am afraid our gains will be limited.”

   Ren Ruowei saw that he spoke clearly and logically, and it was rare for Ren Ruowei to nod in agreement.

  At this time, Andrew, who hadn't spoken for a long time, said: "We still have a large number of Thai baht futures contracts. If the Thai baht appreciates, we will suffer a double loss."

"The Thai baht will not appreciate!" Zhong Shi retorted decisively without even thinking about it, "On our side alone, we have sold 5 billion U.S. dollars in cash in the last two or three trading days, plus other hedge funds For foreign exchange transactions, this number has at least doubled. According to our previous estimates, BOT has at most about 12 billion dollars in foreign exchange, and now they should urgently discuss how to announce depreciation to minimize the current losses. "

Speaking of this, he took a deep look at Ma Jiarui, and then continued: "If the Thai baht announces a depreciation, they will immediately close their positions in the foreign exchange market. As long as they start to liquidate their positions on a large scale, the Thai baht price in the market will It will fall sharply, and this decline may also be regarded as another attack."

   "How to distinguish whether it is an escape before the crash or a short and violent attack, this is the focus of our discussion. Don't make a mistake. As for whether you believe what I said, it depends on the proof on the board."

   Just when the four of them were divided into two factions and each held their own opinions, the trend chart of the Thai baht on the computer screen suddenly fluctuated violently, and the exchange rate price plummeted, not only in London, but also in Chicago.

   "Look, what I expected has finally happened!" Zhong Shi turned his head with a smile on his face, and said triumphantly to the three people standing beside him.

  Andrew, Ma Jiarui, and Ren Ruowei looked at a long red line that instantly appeared on the board, and they were all stunned, unable to speak a word. If Zhongshi hadn't been standing in front of them all the time, they would definitely think that this drop was a sudden attack by Zhongshi.

   "Don't forget, what was the level of the Thai baht in the foreign exchange market when the BOT intervened in the first place?" Zhong Shi looked at the three stunned guys and added without losing the opportunity.

  The three of them felt a chill in their hearts. When the Thai baht was attacked on a large scale in May, the price of the Thai baht in the foreign exchange market once fell to 26.70, which is still far from the current level. In other words, even though BOT traders have recently increased their positions continuously and the average price has risen a lot, it is still far from the current price. In other words, the current decline in the Thai baht is far from enough, and the BOT will continue to sell positions.

   As for the specific position, no one knows, and I am afraid that the price of 26.70 is not the ultimate goal.

   At this time, the trading situation in the entire Thai baht market has become chaotic. Almost all foreign exchange traders are paying close attention to the drastic changes in the exchange rate price of the Thai baht. Except for the BOT traders, no one else knows the specific reason. Traders started asking everywhere for what was going on, from fundamentals to news, as long as it was about Thailand. And the financial commentators who were guests on TV also started talking nonsense, this is a new round of attacks.

For the arbitrage capital, the sudden drop is simply a disaster. Originally, they thought that they would build positions at a low level and sell them at a high level when the BOT intervened. Moreover, their operations were all ultra-short-term, but driven by profit, these funds began to try I stayed overnight, but today I encountered a sharp drop.

"What's the situation?" Also in Hong Kong, not far from Tianyu Fund, the 45th floor of a building is still brightly lit. This is the office of Jim Watson's private equity fund. His fund is short-term arbitrage part of the funds.

  At this time, Jim's eyes were red, his face was ferocious, and the veins on his neck were bulging, and he was roaring hysterically.

A handsome, medium-sized Caucasian researcher pushed the gold-rimmed glasses on his nose, and said in an emotionless voice: "Since we are short-term, we must have the consciousness of fast in and fast out, and now we are stuck Now, whether to clear the position or increase the position, you decide quickly!"

  His name is Collins Ronald, and he is a senior partner of this private equity fund. Like Jim, he is a financial prodigal son. He was once banned for life for being involved in insider trading in the US market. Later, he could only move to London, Tokyo and other markets. Later, he met Jim in Hong Kong. A lot of rich people's funds have opened this private equity fund.

Speaking of how they came up with the idea of ​​trading Thai baht contracts, it started with Andrew’s frequent comments on the situation in Thailand on TV appearances. The two realized that international speculative capital was going all out to short when they saw this program by chance. baht. The two of them hurriedly teamed up with a group of analysts to conduct some research on the situation in Thailand and found that it was indeed profitable to short the Thai baht. But when they wanted to join it, Thailand had already announced a punitive lending rate for foreign investors, which made them lose their chance.

  But there will always be opportunities in the market. After analyzing the market for a period of time, the two people found that when the BOT intervened, the exchange rate price of the Thai baht would rise significantly, which allowed them to find arbitrage opportunities. In the beginning, the two were just short-term arbitrage, using high leverage to move in and out quickly, and they actually made a lot of money. But gradually Jim was no longer satisfied with this petty profit, and started an overnight warehouse instead.

Collins was already very dissatisfied with the act of holding the overnight position. Now that there was a loss, he wanted to sarcasm a few words, but when he thought that he still had some of his own funds, he couldn't care less about the sarcasm anymore, and quickly asked Jim to get an idea.

"If the position is liquidated, we will lose all the losses we originally earned. This year's performance estimates will be forgotten, and the management fee and excess income will be lost. In this case, the BOT will definitely intervene. Don't worry. Well, we need to increase the position now, reduce the average price of the entire position, and when the BOT intervenes, not only will we not lose money, but we will also make a fortune." After Jim lost his temper in the air, he quickly Calm down, after all, this kind of furious action does not help the choice of speculative decision-making. He carefully analyzed the market, and after half a day, he noticed that the decline of the Thai baht was slowing down, and it was very likely that there would be a rebound in the near future, so he quickly weighed the two options of Collins in his mind. I chose to continue to increase the position.

  All his analysis is based on the intervention of BOT entering the market. He never thought that the current sell-off is precisely the measure of BOT to reduce its position.

  Adding positions now is tantamount to courting death!

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  (end of this chapter)