Chapter 261 Three Messages

On the morning of June 16, when Zhong Shi stepped into the office area of ​​Tianyu Fund again, he was surprised to find that almost everyone was talking about something, but seeing Zhong Shi coming in, they all stopped discussing and stood up in unison. Facing the bell stone.

   "Hey, what's going on here?" Seeing such a strange scene, Zhong Shi couldn't help but stop, looked around, and turned back to ask Zhao Xiaowu who had been following him.

  Zhao Xiaowu spread his hands and shook his head again, indicating that he didn't know.

  Zhong Shi scratched his head and continued to walk forward. Suddenly, he heard a round of applause. It was unknown who started it first, followed by the second and third... Then all the researchers applauded.

   "What's going on?" Zhong Shi asked Ma Jiarui, who was walking in front of him, with a guilty conscience.

With a smile on his face, Ma Jiarui waved his hands around, the applause stopped immediately, and he said loudly to Zhong Shi: "Zhong Sheng, this is their spontaneous behavior, expressing their accurate judgment on the situation of the Thai baht, and earning money for them." A lot of money."

  Because the internal fund managed by Zhong Shi has entered a closed period since it was raised, it is not open to the public, and only internal employees can buy it. At the beginning of Tianyu Fund's establishment, only a few employees invested part of the funds with a skeptical attitude, and most of the others took a wait-and-see attitude. As a result, a year later, the capital of the invested employees more than doubled, which made other wait-and-see employees extremely jealous and regretful, and invested capital in internal funds one after another. After a few years, the minimum rate of return has reached 300%.

  Researchers who can get a high salary and increase their own funds are naturally flocking to such a good thing. Although they also know that part of their salary comes from the management fee of their funds and the share of excess income, but in the face of a nearly 100% annualized rate of return, who cares about the management fee at these two points and the 20% share of excess income Woolen cloth?

This time, Zhongshi was successful in betting on the Thai baht again. The researchers knew the news when they first went to work, which also meant that they made a lot of money. The scene of Zhongshi applauding.

  Zhong Shi immediately showed a smile on his face, and waved his hands triumphantly towards the surroundings. After everyone sat back to their seats, he asked: "What were they discussing just now, didn't they just talk about it?"

"Not entirely. Some people were discussing the gold shop robbery that happened yesterday. Today's Ming Pao reported that the police fled in the street and were routed. It was completely different from the report on the TV news yesterday. They were probably discussing this matter. Just now Ma Jiarui was discussing this hot topic in the city with Ren Ruowei and others, and when he heard Zhong Shi's question, he briefly explained the matter.

  Zhong Shi's complexion changed, and he walked directly to his office without saying a word for a long time.

   "What is the current quotation in Thai baht in the market?" Zhong Shi walked into his office with a serious face, and then asked Ma Jiarui who followed closely.

"Not as optimistic as we expected, but it also set a new low for the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar. From last night to this morning, the Thai baht fell 17% against the U.S. dollar. % raised to 12.5%, a full increase of 200 basis points." Ma Jiarui's face was full of joy that could not be concealed.

  A short-selling quota of US$5 billion, plus a 17% exchange rate difference, is equivalent to a gain of US$750 million, all of which happened overnight.

  If they buy back Thai baht at the current price in the market to cover their positions, they can earn at least US$600 million. After another conversation, Ma Jiarui tentatively asked, "Should we close out the market position and attack other countries' currencies instead?"

"Don't worry!" Zhong Shi made two cups of rich-flavored coffee, brought a cup to Ma Jiarui himself, and then continued: "According to Thailand's current situation, the current price is not an equilibrium price. With the passage of time, the consequences of canceling the fixed exchange rate system will gradually appear, and the market exchange rate will fall further, and it will not be too late for us to close our positions at the right time."

   "Is this not an appropriate price?" Ma Jiarui thought to himself with a shudder in his heart. Earning a 17% profit in just half a year, although this figure is nothing, but you must know that this is when the amount of funds is 5 billion US dollars, and he thinks he can accept it as soon as he sees it.

   "Then what price does Zhong Sheng think is appropriate?" Ma Jiarui thought for a while, and decided that he still wanted to touch Zhong Shi's psychological bottom line, and wait until the right time to operate.

  Zhong Shi took a sip of coffee, closed his eyes and meditated for a long time, and said a number that made Ma Jiarui a little dumbfounded: "30%, this is my judgment, what do you think?"

"30%?" Although Ma Jiarui was already mentally prepared, he was still taken aback when he heard this number. He immediately stood up and retorted: "This number is really too amazing. It’s not a true reflection of the Thai baht’s current exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, why don’t you think about it again?”

"You also said that this is indeed not the real reaction of the Thai baht to the US dollar now, but what about in the future?" Zhong Shi smiled slightly, walked over and patted Ma Jiarui on the shoulder, signaling him not to get too excited, "But three months later What? Think about it, now that the Thai baht is depreciating, the Thai economy will definitely suffer a comprehensive blow. If nothing else, just say that those companies that borrowed in other currencies have increased their debt by 17% overnight. How can they maintain it? Go on? What’s worse are those who borrowed the yen. Now that the yen is rising against the dollar, in the case of a double rise, I’m afraid the debt will increase by more than 17%!”

"Under such circumstances, these enterprises may inevitably go bankrupt. What can the government do? If the growth of exports cannot reach the speed of currency depreciation, in order to save the real economy, BOT can only rely on the way of issuing more currency to alleviate the current trade. Deficits, these currencies enter the circulation area, which will generate inflationary pressure, which will force the BOT to increase interest rates, which will further increase the cost of corporate financing, and the speed and number of bankrupt companies will further increase. In the end, the speed of economic deterioration will only further increase Acceleration will eventually drag Thailand's economy into the abyss of stagnation, and even a large-scale retrogression."

   "Think about it, by that time, will the 30% depreciation rate still be empty talk?"

After listening to Zhong Shi's analysis, Ma Jiarui felt that it was very reasonable, but since Zhong Shi could think of it, the talented people in Thailand would naturally think of it, so they are very likely to take corresponding measures against the current situation, "Since it is That way, the Thai government and the Bank of Thailand will certainly not stand by, and if they take strong measures to stop this from happening, then we will most likely not be able to achieve the current gains, so what?"

"Don't worry! Once the economic measures are implemented, it will take at least two or three months to be effective. This is still a relatively short period of time, and it may take several years to be effective. According to my judgment, the current situation in Thailand can only be achieved through foreign aid. I believe that they will soon seek help from institutions like the IMF, but they will also have to pay the price of lowering tariffs, liberalizing exchange rates, and allowing foreign investment to enter certain areas. After their parliaments pass these plans, We can stop now." Zhong Shi knocked his head vigorously, the result of staying up late last night was that his head couldn't stop aching, which made him very painful.

   "Did you see today's news?" Just as the two were discussing the current situation, Andrew suddenly pushed the door open with a newspaper in his hand.

Zhong Shi was half lying on the seat with his head tilted. This posture made him feel more comfortable. Seeing that Andrew was sweating on his face and still panting heavily, he asked with a smile, "What news? No Is it the news that the robbers robbed the gold shop in the street?"

  He happened to be at the scene when the robbery happened yesterday, and he was almost in danger, but except for Liao Xiaohua, no one else in Tianyu Fund knew about it. At this time, although Zhong Shi said this in a relaxed tone, he still had lingering fears about what happened yesterday.

"It's not that matter." To Zhong Shi's surprise, what Andrew said was not the big case that caused a sensation in Hong Kong. "Today's South China Morning Post published an article by Rodney Jones called "Currency Tightness: What Keynes Would Say About Thailand" compares the Thai government's insistence on a fixed exchange rate system to pure psychosis."

   "Oh? Really?" Zhong Shi suddenly regained his energy, stood up suddenly from his seat, and asked repeatedly, "Why did you choose to post it today? Besides, what else did you say?"

Rodney Jones is an employee of Quantum Fund. This is a fact that everyone in the financial circle knows. This article points the finger at the Thai government, which means that Quantum Fund has confirmed the rumors of shorting the Thai baht. The reputation is extremely bad. Choosing to release it on the day when the Thai baht depreciates is undoubtedly a slap in the face of the Thai government and a naked provocation.

  When did Soros and his PR team lose their minds with such a high profile?

   It is not just as simple as offending the Thai government, because all subsequent attacks on the currencies of Southeast Asian countries can be attributed to the Quantum Fund, whether they have done it or not.

   This is definitely a big public relations mistake. Zhong Shi changed his mind and quickly came to such a conclusion.

"I don't know why I chose to publish it today. In addition to these, I also roughly analyzed Thailand's economic situation and gave some suggestions. It probably means that Thailand's current active choice of depreciation is better than sticking to a rigid exchange rate system. Seeing Zhong Shi's complexion fluctuating, Andrew didn't know what he was thinking, and answered after pondering his words for a long time.

   "Good! Good! Good!" Zhong Shi slapped his thigh, said three good words one after another, and then burst out laughing.

   Ma Jiarui and Andrew looked at each other, but they didn't understand why Zhong Shi was so happy.

  …

On this day, there were three news events that can be called major events. One was Ming Pao's "The gangsters shot in the street, and the police (police) ran away with their heads in their arms." Floating, the last one has the least impact, but it caused an uproar in the global financial circle, that is the article by Rodney Jones.

   Thank you very much book friend wangxueliang for the monthly ticket plus reward! Thanks for making me think, rexjue voted for the monthly ticket! Thanks for the reward of Demon Dragon Warrior Ghost!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)