Chapter 264 Large-Scale Research

Seeing that the atmosphere of the discussion had reached a deadlock, Ma Jiarui stepped forward in time and said wittily: "These are all unseen things. There is no evidence that international hedge funds are eyeing Hong Kong. We are just doing an internal Discuss, besides, if hedge funds attack, isn't there the HKMA?"

"No!" Zhong Shi raised his index finger, waved at Ma Jiarui, and said earnestly, "It's a good habit of us to do finance beforehand. Don't forget, we are also one of many predators. Since we can If you think of it, others may not be able to think of it. Since it is about research, I have some photos here, you can take a look."

   As he spoke, he snapped his fingers at Andrew. Andrew nodded, took out a thick stack of photos from the briefcase in his hand, and distributed them to the researchers.

The background of the photo is a shipyard. A middle-aged Asian man in his forties is looking around with several white men. Looking at the workers chatting around, some foreigners were touching the rusty steel on the ground. Although these dozens of photos are different from each other, the researchers can tell at a glance that these people are conducting investigation and research activities.

  Because they want to buy stocks, fund researchers often go to listed companies to investigate. This is a normal investigation behavior. Only by going deep into the field can we intuitively feel the production activities of an enterprise. This behavior is inevitable in the investment process. All the researchers present have had similar experiences.

   There was a joke that Peter Lynch, who is known as a stock sage, visits at least 200 listed companies every year and is always busy with research. Once he became interested in the stock of a clothing company, and he had no resources at all, so he could only ask his wife and daughter to take a look there. As a result, they came back with a lot of clothes after going around. The company's styles and materials were full of praise. Peter Lynch keenly sensed business opportunities, bought the company's stocks generously, and finally made a fortune.

   It can be seen how important research activities are to understand the real situation of the listed company behind a stock.

   "Hey, isn't this person Pan Hui, the chief economist of Nava Securities?" Soon, a sharp-eyed researcher recognized the Asian face in the photo and shouted out in surprise.

  Other researchers looked over one after another, and found that it was Pan Hui from Nava Securities who had been in contact with them. Soon, these people thought that the person who can let the chief economist of the investment bank accompany the research must also be a person in the circle, or even a researcher of a heavyweight institution. Thinking of this, the expressions of the Tianyu Foundation researchers immediately turned serious.

"You guessed it right, it is indeed Pan Hui from Nava Securities." Zhong Shi looked at the researchers who had changed their expressions, added fuel to the fire, and said, "This group of photos was taken in July. The shipyard is a shipyard off the coast of the mainland, listed in Hong Kong, and the current stock price is around 43 Hong Kong dollars. Can you find out more information through this group of photos?"

  Hearing this, the researchers picked up the photos at hand and looked at them. After thinking for a while, they began to express their opinions.

   "We can't get any more information from these photos. If we can do some on-site inspections, the effect should be better."

   "The steel on the ground has been rusted, and it should not have been touched for a long time. It seems that the operating rate of this shipyard is not very high, and the raw materials are idle to this point, causing great waste."

"Not bad! If you look at these few photos alone, the operating conditions of this shipyard are not optimistic. Combined with the financial report and recent trends, I personally think that the stock price of this shipyard is obviously overvalued." The quick-moving researcher quickly called up the shipyard's latest stock price chart from the computer in the meeting room, connected to the projector, and suddenly a powerful upward trend chart appeared in front of everyone.

Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, waved his hand to stop everyone from continuing the discussion, and said, "Although I don't know where these white men work, I believe everyone is very clear. These photos alone can show that the mainland companies listed in Hong Kong The company has been targeted by foreign institutions. Please note that the institutions I am talking about here are not ordinary foreign investors, but probably hedge funds. After all, not everyone is qualified to be accompanied by a managing director. With the current wailing in Southeast Asia, if it is said that hedge funds are interested in red-chip stocks, I am afraid that even everyone here will not believe it. Then, the most likely thing left is that they are investigating these companies with red-chip stocks. It's because they create a bubble."

Generally speaking, macro hedge funds do not have much interest in individual stocks. Most of their investment targets are fixed on the exchange rates, interest rates or commodity markets of various countries. Only these markets can provide them with huge amounts of funds. Earnings return. Take Quantum Hedge Fund as an example, with a fund management scale of up to 20 billion U.S. dollars, once it enters the stock market, it may immediately cause the entire index to rise.

  Of course, in the later era of big money, due to the rapid expansion of the capital scale that the stock market can accommodate, coupled with the vigilance of macro hedge funds throughout the world, some hedge funds with macro strategies have been transformed.

  Researchers have their own stock price valuation methods, among which there are two more important valuation models, one is the cash flow analysis model, and the other is the implied volatility price model. One of these two models is to analyze the stock price from the perspective of cash flow, and the other is to analyze whether the stock is overvalued from the perspective of options (warrants). Although it cannot completely and truly reflect the price, it can be used as a model to some extent kind of reference.

It’s just that during this period of time, almost all researchers are contacting various investment banks, asking for macroeconomic reports similar to those of Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and other countries. Even the business of several other funds has completely stagnated, and naturally no one To analyze the situation of Hong Kong stocks.

  In just two months, the size of the flagship fund managed by Zhong Shi has expanded to as much as eight billion U.S. dollars. In addition, there are still more than one billion U.S. dollars in short positions in Thai baht that have not been liquidated. This rate of return of more than 50% has prevented researchers from doing their own work. Almost everyone is thinking about how to find the next target of currency attacks, even a few fund managers are no exception. Although there is a clear division of labor internally, because the flagship fund does not have too many researchers, Zhong Shi called researchers from other departments, which also caused the stagnation of investment activities of several other funds.

"The current Hong Kong stock market is still a scene of flowers blooming and flames cooking oil, but research reports from relevant investment banks have shown that this is a false prosperity, that is, bubble theory. Leaving aside the stance of these reports, let's start with From our professional point of view, Hong Kong stocks are indeed overvalued at present." Ma Jiarui frowned, and said before anyone else could speak, "There is another problem. The number of researchers recently transferred to the flagship fund is a bit If Zhong Sheng wants to shift his investment focus, should he consider this aspect?"

  His words were a little clever, which not only catered to Zhong Shi’s point of view, but also shirked the responsibility for monitoring the recent unfavorable market. Neither party should be offended.

"No need. Now we only need to find out the parts closest to the facts from the economic analysis reports of various securities companies, and leave the analysis work to them. In addition, the research work on red chips will be carried out quickly. I have a hunch , International hedge funds have already set their sights on mainland China, although they cannot directly attack the mainland, but red chips will become the main target." Zhong Shi tilted his head and thought for a while, and finally decided not to touch the current team.

Generally speaking, the fund industry does not need too many analytical talents, and they can directly get relevant research reports from the research department of the brokerage firm for free, because what the brokerage firm ultimately wants is their commission fee, so there is such a potential rule , that is, the more accurate the research report of a certain brokerage firm is, the more funds will use the brokerage channel of a certain brokerage firm.

  However, there is another reason why funds seldom hire researchers. That is, they are in the buyer's position, and they are the targets of brokers. They have sufficient chips to poach top analysts from the research department of brokers, and they do not need their own training. Most of the researchers they want to recruit are analysts who are generally believed to have high research accuracy and a certain reputation in the market. The number may be insufficient, but the quality is definitely high.

"In addition, countries in East Asia should also pay close attention. I believe that after Southeast Asia, hedge funds have shifted their targets. Regions such as South Korea, Japan, and Yizhou will become their new targets. Macro data in these regions should be monitored constantly. .” Zhong Shi added another sentence.

   Everyone responded in unison, seeing that the meeting had come to an end, they left the meeting room in twos and threes.

   "Tell me, what else did you not say?" After everyone left, Ma Jiarui still stayed in the conference room, obviously having something to say to Zhong Shi. Seeing him hesitate to speak, Zhong Shi frowned subconsciously, his tone a little unhappy.

   Ma Jiarui stared into Zhong Shi's eyes, and said word by word: "Zhong Sheng, is it because of what I said before that you gave up the idea of ​​​​attacking the Hong Kong dollar? If so, I am really worried."

Zhong Shi shook his head and said in a slow tone: "No, although we are pursuing absolute returns and Hong Kong is also our foundation, if the Hong Kong dollar is really going to be defeated, I will attack it without hesitation. But Don’t forget, it’s not long since Hong Kong returned to China. Under such circumstances, the mainland government will definitely not let the Hong Kong dollar depreciate. This is equivalent to a blatant slap in the face. If possible, the mainland government may assist Hong Kong’s foreign exchange reserves Hong Kong, this is not just an economic act, but a political act. What we have to face is not just an opponent of Hong Kong, do you understand?"

   "So it is!" Ma Jiarui nodded, but then asked, "Will the Hong Kong government abandon the free port government and openly support the Hong Kong dollar in the foreign exchange market?"

Speaking of this, Zhong Shi couldn't help but took a deep look at Ma Jiarui, and said with deep meaning: "Anything is possible, the Hong Kong government cannot allow international speculators to wantonly sell short on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but in what way we are now It’s not easy to guess, just wait and see.”

   Thank you very much, Demon Dragon Warrior Ghost, for voting for the monthly ticket! At the same time, I hope that more book lovers will pay attention to this book, thank you!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)