Chapter 294 The Second Issue: Ten Years of Black Monday

"as predicted!"

  Zhong Shi sat upright in the middle of the meeting room, looking calm.

   At this time, the top executives of Tianyu Fund sitting on both sides of him had extremely shocked expressions on their faces. The news of NT's sudden abandonment shocked them so strongly that even after half an hour, they still couldn't hide the surprised look on their faces.

   "Explanation (why)?" is the only thought in their minds at the moment. You must know that the Yizhou authorities have foreign exchange reserves of more than 50 billion U.S. dollars, and the capital account has not been fully opened, which means that even if hedge funds want to attack the New Taiwan dollar, it is impossible to do so through large-scale exchange channels. It can be done through limited exchange and shorting NTD currency futures contracts in other markets.

  Of course, there is another possibility, that is, the central bank of the Yizhou authorities has a large number of forward contracts, and the payment time is not too far away. However, where the capital account cannot be fully opened, it is basically impossible to find the number of central bank forward contracts.

Looking at the bewildered faces, Zhong Shi smiled, coughed lightly, broke the silence in the conference room, and seeing that everyone was looking at him, he said, "Are you wondering why Yi Will the European authorities suddenly announce that they will abandon the NT dollar?"

   Zhong Shi certainly has his own understanding of the Yizhou authorities' announcement of abandonment. Today, he can be said to have experienced two Asian financial crises. For the first time, because of his low level and low position, he naively believed that there was something wrong with these Southeast Asian countries and that hedge funds took advantage of the loopholes. Now that he thinks about it carefully, this point of view can only be regarded as the obvious reason. In fact, behind the outbreak of the crisis is the wrestling of superpowers. This kind of wrestling in the form of economic war not only has not died down, but has intensified. Now the abandonment of the NT dollar is only the beginning, and more exciting things are yet to come.

Naturally, he couldn't explain these reasons to other people here, because this is too unbelievable, and it involves a contest at the national level. If people of other nationalities hear it, it is inevitable that they will stand in line. A series of plans to "take chestnuts out of the fire" is a threat.

  Hearing Zhong Shi's words, everyone was silent again, pricking up their ears, wanting to hear how Zhong Shi interpreted the unexpected news.

However, to their disappointment, Zhong Shi did not get too entangled in the topic of the sudden depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar. The impact of this news on the Hong Kong stock market, or rather, the impact on the Hong Kong dollar is more appropriate!"

   Several senior managers were discouraged for a while. They were used to looking for answers from Zhong Shi to questions that they couldn't figure out, but when Zhong Shi opened his mouth, he didn't intend to give them a clear answer. However, what Zhong Shi said later made their eyes shine again. Yes, the depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar has become a firm and unchangeable fact. The most important thing now is indeed to consider the subsequent impact.

  Geographically, Yizhou and Hong Kong are very close. Culturally, they belong to the Chinese cultural circle, but economically they are not the same. In recent years, Yizhou has used the opportunity of capital transfer to develop its own industry. At present, the electronics industry, agriculture and other industries are extremely competitive in East Asia, while Hong Kong's pillar industries focus on tourism, export and finance. The two are related. Not too big.

  But there is a problem, that is, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has vigorously developed the Yizhou market in recent years, and hopes that those companies that are interested in the mainland market or the international market will come to Hong Kong for listing. After all, this place is more international and can attract capital inflows. Therefore, a depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar will inevitably affect those Yizhou companies listed in Hong Kong, and companies with a high business relationship with the Yizhou area will also be affected accordingly.

  In terms of market influence, the Yizhou stock market is far from being comparable to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In recent years, the Singapore market and the Hong Kong market have traveled between various countries and regions, all in order to compete for listing resources. After all, apart from the Tokyo Exchange, these two exchanges are the largest exchanges in the entire Asian region.

After hearing Zhong Shi's words, everyone's first reaction was that it would have an impact on these companies, but when they were about to speak, they heard Ma Jiarui say: "From the current situation, the depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar is not necessarily a big deal. Bad thing, at least for companies in the Yizhou area, their products will be more competitive."

  Currency depreciation makes the price of products cheaper. This is a basic understanding in economics. The faces of those who just wanted to say that it is not good for Yizhou enterprises turned red, and swallowed what they originally planned to say.

   "But the problem is..."

Ma Jiarui pondered for a moment, and seeing other people looking at him, the corner of his mouth twitched slightly, and then he continued: "The depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar will definitely have an impact on the Asian currency markets that have tended to be stable. The devalued currency may be subject to another round of depreciation pressure. In addition, in this wave, other currencies such as the Hong Kong dollar are likely to be attacked.”

  Seeing that everyone's faces changed, Ma Jiarui also realized that his words might be exaggerated, and then said embarrassingly: "Of course, I'm just guessing, and it's not necessarily the case."

"Do not!"

Zhong Shi knocked on the mahogany round table with his fingers, making a crisp sound. After attracting everyone's attention, he said solemnly: "No! What Chris said is definitely not alarmist talk, but it is very likely to become a fact. In fact, In the past few months, the confidence of currency investors in the entire Asian region has been in a state of panic, and there will be abnormal fluctuations in the entire market if there is a slight disturbance. In addition to these, everyone, don’t forget, what is the next trading day? ?”

   "What date?" After listening to Zhong Shi's words, everyone pondered for a while and felt that what he said made sense. After all, no matter what capital market it is, confidence is extremely important. Once confidence collapses and a herd effect occurs, it will be a situation of plummeting. Although the foreign exchange market is different, the corresponding impact is inevitable, even with the backing of the central bank.

  Ren Ruowei was the quickest to respond. While the others were still thinking about what Zhong Shi said earlier, he blurted out: "October 20, Monday."

   "What else?" Zhong Shi glanced at him, then turned his gaze away, obviously not satisfied with the answer.

   "..."

Ren Ruowei suddenly lost his temper, lowered his head and repeated "Monday" several times, suddenly his eyes lit up, raised his head and said loudly: "Black Monday, the 10th anniversary of Black Monday, God! God! God! !"

  He sighed three times in a row. Obviously, "Black Monday" provoked the memory of his deepest fear, which made him lose his composure for a while.

  When the others heard "Black Monday", their faces were full of astonishment, and then all of them turned gloomy. Obviously, this term is not so comfortable for them.

   On the contrary, Andrew, who had always been an old god, turned weird. He frowned and thought about it for a while, and then winked at the bell stone in the middle, obviously remembering the genius boy back then.

   On October 19, 1987, the Hang Seng Index plummeted 420 points for no reason, or 11.12%. Just when everyone was dumbfounded, a wave of falling frenzy swept the global market. Starting from the news that the New York stock market fell by 5% last Friday, the Asia-Pacific market plunged on Monday, which in turn affected the performance of global stock markets. The Financial Times Index (London) fell 249 points on this day, a drop of 10.84%, and fell 250 points on the following day , down 12.22%. After the infection reached the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 508 points, or 22.61%. Although it opened higher the next day, it only rose 5.88%, still evaporating 400 points of market value. After this day's decline, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was forced to close for four days. However, when the market reopened on October 26, the Hang Seng Index still fell wildly, falling 1120 points all day, or as high as 33.33%, setting a record for this round of falling frenzy. .

  In the entire October that followed, the Hong Kong market did not recover, with a drop of 45.8%. In other words, even if the investment portfolio is replaced with the allocation of constituent stocks, it is still a situation of cutting in half. We must know that most of these constituent stocks are blue-chip stocks with good fundamentals, sufficient cash flow, and sufficient expectations for the market and prospects. In this case, except for short sellers, almost no holders of stocks will be spared. At that time, Hong Kong even had payment problems because many stock index futures could not be delivered, which was finally resolved with the intervention of the British Hong Kong government.

Some of these people here have just entered the industry, some have several years of investment experience, and some are still studying hard in the ivory tower. It can be said that everyone is full of longing for the future, but they did not expect a The stock market catastrophe, which cannot even be explained, wiped out their savings. At that time, it was not known how many people committed suicide because of this, and news reports showed that corpses were found on mountaintops and seasides every day. The whole society was filled with an extremely pessimistic atmosphere. Some economists even believed that the Great Depression would come again.

   Fortunately, the Great Depression did not happen, and the economy soon recovered. And these people present here have also survived, but the soul-stirring at that time has remained in their minds forever.

  So when they heard about "Black Monday", almost everyone's faces darkened. In the stock market crash that swept the entire market, I am afraid that none of the people present did not lose money, except Zhongshi.

  During that inexplicable decline, Zhong Shi made a fortune in the U.S. market through the brokerage firm Andrew worked for at the time, which became his single transaction with the highest profit rate, and he was only a teenager at the time.

Originally, in the past few years, every fourth Monday in October, the media had to hype "Black Monday". It also makes investors gradually forget what happened on this day.

It's just that everything is different now. The currency storm raging over Asia has not completely dissipated. Just when people are taking a breath, the Yizhou authorities come out to disrupt the situation at the right time and choose the arrival of "Black Monday" On the last Friday before, it was announced that it would abandon the NT dollar, and after two days of rest days, coupled with the psychological shadow of the past, the effect of this disruptive situation will definitely be infinitely magnified.

"good!"

Zhong Shi still looked calm, but when he saw everyone's expressions changed, he deliberately eased the atmosphere and said with a light smile, "Don't be too nervous, this is a thing of the past after all, and we should No one invests in the Hong Kong market, right? Haha, if so, cash out as soon as possible, huh? It’s a bit late now, haha.”

   Naturally, apart from Andrew dryly laughing a few times, no third person laughed out loud. Zhong Shi was very bored, and after a moment of silence, he said lightly: "Everyone, don't dwell on the old things anymore. Think about it, even when you hear 'Black Monday', it's the same situation, what about other investors? What do you think when you hear this news?"

  …

   "Naturally, it's a lack of confidence, cash out, and the index we just finally stabilized will plummet again!" Song Ling said bitterly.

   PS: I'm really sorry, fellow readers, I still owe a chapter. I haven't been feeling well recently, especially near the end of the month, when the weather turns warm and cold, I accidentally developed a fever. I have been struggling with the illness for the past two days, so I will add some words first, and then I will make up when my health is better. I'm so sorry. At the same time, thanks to Yuan Xi, Shadow K, Really Boring, Xing Zhi 0 and other book friends who voted monthly votes yesterday!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)