Chapter 299 Cross Rates

Before Song Ling recovered from the stunned state, he heard Li Xi continue to say: "Also, next time this kind of thing has nothing to do with our company's business, but Xiao Song, You are still very young and need someone to help you check and guide. As the chairman of the entire group, I naturally cannot turn a blind eye to this situation, so..."

Although this bailout committee is temporary in nature, except for the financial department managers of several listed companies who have some liquid funds on hand, other large fund transfers need to apply to Aihua News Agency and Hualian News Agency, but how to use, Questions such as how much to use should also refer to the opinions of these managers. In other words, this is a good opportunity to leave a favor, how could the shrewd Li Xi want to miss it?

  Song Ling understood as soon as he heard this, and quickly said: "Yes, Mr. Li. I will definitely work under your care and guidance."

Seeing that Song Ling quickly realized his intentions and gave a positive response, Li Xi smiled with satisfaction and said, "Young man is not bad, he has a bright future. It seems that this position is a bit inferior now. But don't worry, wait. After this period of time, I will apply to the organization to give you a bigger development platform."

  Just reached a favor deal, and then tossed in a sweet treat, this is Li Xi's tactic to win over Song Ling. Although Song Ling felt disdainful, he still put on a respectful expression and said excitedly: "Thank you for the promotion of the chairman, I will definitely do my job well..."

  Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Of course, both sides don't believe this kind of rhetoric, but this is an unavoidable procedure, just like when the organization department wants to promote a cadre, when they talk to him, they usually say: "My ability is limited, I'm afraid I can't be qualified for such an important task, but I resolutely obey the organization's arrangement..."

   Hypocrisy!

  …

At this time, inside Tianyu Fund, researchers are nervously staring at the index of the US market to see what kind of situation the 10th anniversary of "Black Monday" will bring to US investors. More or less will affect the psychology of some investors.

   It should be noted that during the "Black Monday" in 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Index first fell at the close of trading on Friday, and the specific reason is unknown. The most reasonable explanation is that because London was hit by a hurricane, investors in London chose to hedge in the New York market in order to avoid losses, which led to fluctuations in the Dow Jones Index. Then, when the market opened on Monday, the Hong Kong market in the Asian market fell first (almost the same time that the Tokyo market did not see much volatility), this decline destroyed investor confidence, and then spread to Europe, and then in the U.S. time on Monday caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plummet. Since the New York market is the most important market in the entire global financial market, this panic-like plunge has in turn affected the entire global market.

  Because Hong Kong was still under the rule of the British at that time, the entire Hong Kong market was very closely connected with London, which can explain why the Tokyo market did not fluctuate greatly. In fact, the rumor that "Black Monday" was caused by a British hurricane has been considered by some to be the culprit of the stock market crash.

  Even now, the Hong Kong market and London are still closely linked, and the largest foreign exchange market for the Hong Kong dollar is still in the UK, not the Asian financial center.

"The Financial Times Index fell by 60 points, or 1.14%, to close at 5211 points. The situation is not too bad." At this time, London has closed, and the situation of the whole day has become clear. It is time for Ren Ruowei to report the situation to Zhongshi After that, his expression became a little excited, and he was no longer as before as if he was facing a formidable enemy.

  Because the events ten years ago almost caused a devastating blow to the entire financial market, investors who have experienced that period of time cannot forget this experience. However, judging from the current European market, this kind of panic can hardly have a greater impact on investors, after all, ten years have passed.

"In addition, the situation in the New York market is very optimistic, and the situation as imagined has not occurred. The market sentiment is generally optimistic. The market is still green at present. I believe this situation can be maintained when the market closes." Ren Ruowei said eloquently, completely He didn't notice Zhong Shi's increasingly ugly face.

   After another half day, Ren Ruowei finally realized that Zhong Shi still hadn't said a word after he had reported for a long time, so he said awkwardly, "Zhong Sheng, what's the problem?"

   "The problem is serious!"

Zhong Shi replied unceremoniously, then waved to Ren Ruowei, beckoned him to come forward, pointed to the foreign exchange chart on the computer screen and said: "See, this is the Hong Kong dollar and British pound in the London market. The trend chart, the Hong Kong dollar fell as soon as the market opened today. Although it once rebounded in the session, the situation is not very good. The current exchange rate against the British pound is 1 pound to 12.6510 Hong Kong dollars. This price has hit the lowest since August. Although the current The situation is unclear, but there is no doubt that the market's confidence in the Hong Kong dollar is not very strong."

  Since the currency in the Hong Kong market is closely pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the Hong Kong dollar is issued at a ratio of 1:7.8, the most influential factor on the Hong Kong dollar is not the British currency that once ruled Hong Kong, but the U.S. dollar. So Zhong Shi turned over the exchange rate chart of the pound to the dollar again, pointed to the jumping K-line chart and said: "See, the pound to the dollar rose by 1.05% to close at 1.633 dollars to 1 pound. What do you think it means?" ?”

   “Hong Kong dollar fell against pound, pound rose against dollar, dollar rose against Hong Kong dollar…”

Ren Ruowei repeated these words over and over again, and after a long time, he slowly said: "Is it possible to interpret it this way? Investors have recently been optimistic about the British pound, so they bought a lot, which also led to selling pressure on the Hong Kong dollar. , so there was a drop against both major currencies, also on fears of 'Black Monday'."

Due to the extremely complex currency exchange rate, the number of influencing factors is comparable to that of the stock market, and when there are three, four or even more cross-exchange rates, even the most astute academic economists may be in the market. Get lost in this intricacies of analysis. So Ren Ruowei answered with some uncertainty after thinking for a long time.

However, due to the existence of arbitrageurs in the market, although the rise and fall of these three currencies are complicated, they will eventually reach a balance, that is, the exchange rate difference between them will not be greater than the opportunity cost of arbitrage, otherwise arbitrageurs will They will enter the market to arbitrage and narrow the exchange rate difference between them to this range.

   "Here's an explanation!"

Zhong Shi nodded noncommittally, looked at Ren Ruowei again, and then said: "But there is another explanation, I think European investors have also begun to lose confidence in the Hong Kong dollar, and are selling Hong Kong dollars and buying British pounds. And the magnitude of that buying is one of the reasons why sterling has appreciated against the dollar.”

   "This... this is unlikely!"

Ren Ruowei's face changed a little, and he shouted in a low voice: "You must know that although banks such as HSBC and Standard Chartered are old British banks, their main foundation is still in Hong Kong. This kind of behavior of selling their own currency is not necessarily It will increase profits, on the contrary, it may cause certain troubles to its own business activities, and at the same time, there will be more exchange rate risks.”

Zhong Shi nodded, and was quite satisfied with Ren Ruowei's reaction, but he still did not give up his point of view, and said: "What you said has some truth. Moreover, the situation of the Hong Kong dollar will not be the main reason for the appreciation of the pound." But have you ever thought that once London investors join the army of shorting the Hong Kong dollar, the investors holding the British pound will obviously not convert it into the U.S. dollar, adding an exchange rate risk in vain. The biggest possibility for them is Directly sell Hong Kong dollars and buy British pounds."

"And once the Hong Kong dollar is decoupled from the U.S. dollar, the British pound will naturally rise accordingly. Although the main battlefield is not here, if the U.S. dollar succeeds, it will not affect their income. After all, the British pound is still strong in the short term. "

"In the end, investors who hold sterling may still choose the dollar, because the process of the euro is accelerating, and no one knows what will happen at that time. Although the biggest competitor of the euro is the dollar, the pound may bear the brunt. So Now the pound seems to be stable, but in the next few years, I am afraid that it will depreciate against the dollar.”

   As he spoke, a huge chessboard seemed to pop up in front of Zhong Shi's eyes. The players who played chess were naturally from various countries, and he was just a cold-eyed spectator at the moment.

   Shaking his head, Zhong Shi came to his senses, these are too distant things, the euro still has at least two or three years to "come to the ground", and the most important thing now is Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index. Thinking of Hong Kong, Zhong Shi thought of the British. Compared with the Americans, the influence of the British in Hong Kong is obviously greater. If there are no British people in the stock index futures of the Hang Seng Index, I am afraid that Zhong Shi himself would not believe it. .

  In the final analysis, the biggest influence factor of the Hong Kong dollar is the U.S. dollar. You can also go short by buying the British pound and selling the Hong Kong dollar. However, except for a few British banks, I am afraid that not many banks are interested in this. Therefore, the exchange rate of the British pound against the Hong Kong dollar still depends on the exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar, and there are many factors that affect the exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar.

When the two were discussing in full swing, they heard an extremely excited voice from outside the door, and then Ma Jiarui walked in and said excitedly: "The Dow Jones Industrial Index has closed. It rose to 7921 points, up 74.41 points, an increase of 0.95 points." %. A very good result, there is no 'Black Monday' confidence crisis in the United States, I believe tomorrow will be good for the Hang Seng Index."

"hey-hey!"

Zhong Shi laughed a few times with a strange face, and then said with some teasing: "That's not necessarily true. It's not too late for us to draw conclusions when the market closes tomorrow." Then he clicked on the exchange rate chart of Japanese yen to US dollar and began to focus looked up.

  Since the Southeast Asian currency crisis broke out, the yen has become the strongest currency in the entire region. Although there has been a slight depreciation in the past few months, the exchange rate between the yen and the US dollar has remained at around 120:1 so far, only depreciating by about 4%. This part of the depreciation is due to the depreciation of other Southeast Asian currencies. caused by outlet pressure.

   "The cost of borrowing is really cheap!"

  Suddenly such an inexplicable sigh came from the quiet room, which surprised Ma and Ren, who were waiting for Zhong Shi to speak, and then looked at Zhong Shi together, not understanding what he was talking about for a while.

Zhong Shi raised his head, saw the puzzled eyes of the two people, smiled slightly, and then explained: "The exchange rate of the yen is extremely low at present, and hedge funds borrow funds from Japan through mortgages, and then convert them into dollars through the foreign exchange market. Making waves everywhere. Now due to the general depreciation of exchange rates in Southeast Asia, Japan’s exports are under pressure. Although this pressure is nothing compared to Japan’s economy, market expectations still cause the yen to depreciate. In this way, The cost of borrowing funds for hedge funds is very low, and with the depreciation of the yen, they have inadvertently made a windfall. Think about it, is there anything better in the world?"

   Thank you book friend, gambler, for not me voting for the monthly ticket! Thanks for the tip that made me think!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)