Chapter 302 Throwing $6 billion overnight

  In the evening, when the shift-changing employees of Tianyu Fund came to the internal restaurant, they were surprised to find that there were caviar and Australian lobster on the menu today, which surprised them greatly. You must know that although these two things are available from time to time, the quantity is not very large. Firstly, the ingredients are expensive, and secondly, the preservation time is short, so the frequency of appearing in restaurants is only once every half a month.

  The most rare thing is that the supply of both kinds of food is very sufficient today, and everyone has a share, which makes even those who came later very happy. As soon as they were seated, they couldn't wait to order these two dishes first, and then paired them with several other dishes. After the fragrant caviar and tender and juicy lobster were served, these people almost ignored their image. After eating, some people even abandoned the knife and fork, and directly grabbed the lobster with their hands and began to bite.

The waiter in the inner area standing aside was a little embarrassed, coughed twice deliberately, and wanted to remind everyone to pay attention to dining etiquette, but most of these researchers just looked up at him, and then continued to eat and drink without restraint the meaning of. The waiter could only let out a long sigh, and turned his head silently.

This is a four-and-a-half-star high-end restaurant selected by professional gourmet magazines. Many diners from Kowloon Island and the New Territories are waiting outside the door. The guy, the gold-lettered signboard that has always been known for its elegant style and extraordinary taste is completely smashed! The waiter thought silently in his heart. But fortunately, the inner area and the outer area are completely separated, and outsiders cannot enter, so there is no need to be afraid of being seen by outsiders in such a scene.

This waiter has been working here for more than half a year. On his first day of work, he tried to shut out this group of researchers who seemed to him to be ignorant of manners. In the end, he His behavior naturally became a joke. It was only later that someone acquainted with him told him that the original purpose of this restaurant was to satisfy the appetite of this group of researchers, and it slowly evolved into the situation it is today. After knowing the truth, the waiter no longer dared to deal with these people, even though his heart was filled with infinite contempt.

"Chris, what do you think will happen tonight?" After filling their stomachs a little, the researchers began to chatter about the market for the evening, including Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei, who are high-level people. . The eating looks of the two of them were a little gentle, and they were not as voracious as the researchers under him. At this time, Ren Ruo wiped his mouth off the tablecloth, took a sip of the white wine in hand, and asked with a frown. Ma Jiarui, who is bowing his head and thinking.

"Huh?" Ma Jiarui raised his head blankly, looked at Ren Ruowei who was opposite him, and after Ren Ruowei repeated the question, he replied thoughtfully: "I don't know, something should happen , Looking at the trading situation during the day, it is obvious that they have not let go of the trading during the Asian session, and the offensive at night should be much more fierce than during the day."

  The currency market is an all-weather market, operating 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, but not all currencies work like this, because currencies themselves have strengths and weaknesses.

  Like the U.S. dollar, it is a common currency all over the world, with sufficient gold content, high credit, and stable currency value. As long as the settlement in international trade is as small as the price of a shirt, as long as they are not circulated in the same country, most of them are priced in US dollars. This is the concrete manifestation of a strong currency. Naturally, a currency like this is a reference for other currencies in the market, and it is naturally circulated around the clock, because it is a reflection of the US economy on the one hand, and it is also inextricably linked to the price of precious metals on the other hand.

But the Hong Kong dollar is different. It is only the performance of the Hong Kong region’s economy. This performance is not enough to affect the entire global economy. Moreover, the endorsement of the Hong Kong dollar is only based on the corresponding amount of U.S. dollars, without the support of gold and silver that are commonly used around the world. Therefore, it cannot be regarded as a strong currency at all.

  So unlike the U.S. dollar, there are two main trading markets for the Hong Kong dollar, one is the local currency market in Hong Kong, and the other is the London market that once ruled Hong Kong. Therefore, if international speculators want to short the Hong Kong dollar, the London foreign exchange market, whose average daily trading volume and varieties are several times larger than that of the Hong Kong market, will naturally become the first choice.

"It makes sense!" Ren Ruowei echoed insincerely, and then his face became serious again, and he asked in a low voice: "Chris, we are old friends who have known each other for several years, don't you bother to tell me now, To be honest, do you think the Hong Kong dollar will depreciate in the end?"

   Ma Jiarui was taken aback for a moment, and raised his head to look at Ren Ruowei in disbelief. His eyes seemed to be looking at a stranger who had never met before, and his indifference made people feel overwhelmed. Contrary to the look in his eyes, at this time Ma Jiarui's heart was like a turbulent sea, and he couldn't calm down. He never imagined that even in Tianyu Fund, a high-level person like Ren Ruowei would be able to resist the Hong Kong dollar in the end. If there are doubts, what kind of mental state should ordinary investors have?

  Looking at Ma Jiarui's weird eyes, Ren Ruowei felt a little hairy in his heart. After coughing heavily, he lowered his head and changed the subject: "Well, today's lobster was good... not bad..."

  …

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, after experiencing the daytime foreign exchange market transactions, everyone’s face is solemn. They know very well that such a large-scale foreign exchange transaction during the day has not been seen for a long time, and the Hong Kong dollar has continued to rise in recent trading days. The depreciation has now reached a critical point, that is, the 7.75 mark.

Although in the last trading session, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority made a decisive move to pull the Hong Kong dollar back from 7.75, but this also made the market smell unusual, as if a drop of blood flowed into a sea full of sharks. Soon, The Hong Kong dollar market has flooded with countless dangerous characters.

   "1 billion Hong Kong dollars, sell, quote 35 (7.7435)." Just as Ren Yigang was still thinking wildly, the trader in charge of the night market suddenly shouted loudly, and immediately pulled his thinking back from the vast sea and sky.

   "Wait and see if there is a bank to take over."

   Seeing that everyone was looking at him, Ren Yigang nodded slightly, calmed down and spoke.

  Normal foreign exchange market transactions are buyers and sellers quoting each other and then making a deal after matching. Most of the buyers and sellers are commercial banks, who conduct foreign exchange transactions due to business needs or arbitrage needs. Of course, this market is also full of currency speculators, but when the currency value is stable, the transaction volume of these speculators is far less than that of commercial banks.

  But once the currency value fluctuates sharply, the funds of speculators will be multiplied, and at this time the exchange rate relationship originally determined by the game between commercial banks will no longer exist. Because commercial banks themselves are also participants, they will also participate in this kind of speculative activities. After a series of games between buyers and sellers, the exchange rate will be brought back to the equilibrium level again.

Because there are many influencing factors, even a currency with a fixed currency value stipulated by law will inevitably have a certain amount of fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, even with an equilibrium exchange rate, the market still fluctuates every day. This fluctuation can be as small as 0.0001, or it can be As large as 10% or more of the entire price.

  It was Ren Yigang's idea to let commercial banks test the water first, and in fact it is a consistent practice, so that the sentiment of the market can be estimated. However, he soon discovered that the 1 billion Hong Kong dollar sell order with a quotation of 35 had not been completed for a long time, and the sale order was soon withdrawn and changed to a quotation of 40.

This is a signal that commercial banks have no intention of taking over the large-amount selling order, so the next step is for the Monetary Authority to enter the market, and soon there will be a large-amount selling order of one billion Hong Kong dollars in the market again, which further weakens the exchange rate level of the Hong Kong dollar. pull down.

   "Do things!"

  Following Ren Yigang's order, traders began to buy the Hong Kong dollars sold in the market one after another. Various quotations filled the entire trading hall. Half an hour later, the Hong Kong dollar returned to the level of 7.7430.

   Within half an hour, the two parties had a total transaction of 3.6 billion Hong Kong dollars, worth about 500 million U.S. dollars. Although it has been in a hurry, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority still stabilized the Hong Kong dollar.

These large sales orders are a test for the international speculators to see how long the HKMA can endure. To their surprise, the HKMA decisively took action when the value of the Hong Kong dollar fell to 40 and ate their money. Disposal.

   This was just the beginning of the fight between the two sides tonight. Soon, there was a large amount of Hong Kong dollar selling in the market again, and the market price of Hong Kong dollar was knocked down again for a while. At the same time, a group of funds led by commercial banks also began to enter the market. Through their observations just now, they found that the HKMA made a move. This is a good opportunity for them to buy low and sell high for arbitrage.

With the sudden increase in the trading volume of the Hong Kong dollar market, speculators in other markets and even irrelevant speculators also followed in. Although they did not have much Hong Kong dollar spot in their hands, they obviously smelled abnormality and participated without hesitation. , For a time, the entire Hong Kong dollar market was full of flames.

  In the trading hall of the HKMA, only the sound of non-stop quotations and buying can be heard. These well-trained traders are concentrating on the work at hand, and they know exactly what the current situation is. Ren Yigang also gave up his rest, and just stared at the numbers on the big screen in the trading hall and gave orders. Although at his level, he no longer needed to fight in person, but the matter was important, and Ren Yigang still appeared on the front line.

  It’s just a pity that although the HKMA continues to accept selling orders for Hong Kong dollars, the quotations for Hong Kong dollars in the market still fall one after another, and soon the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollars against the US dollar reached the psychological barrier of 7.75. At this time, Ren Yigang, who had already stayed up most of the night, had red eyes, and he said viciously: "7.75 must not be lost, we will eat as much as there is in the market!"

  Traders were silent for a while, and then immediately realized that it was not the time to be surprised. After reacting, they accelerated the speed of buying Hong Kong dollars, and the sound in the trading hall became louder for a while.

"7.75, 7.7499, 7.7498..." Numbers kept flashing on the disk, and international speculators were obviously aware of the bottom line and determination of the HKMA, and they began to sell Hong Kong dollars crazily at 7.75, trying to break this line . The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is also desperately buying Hong Kong dollars, and it is bound to guard this place. The two sides fought fiercely at the 7.75 position, and both invested a lot of financial resources in a short period of time.

  At this moment, the so-called strategy has no effect at all, and what the two sides are competing for is financial resources, a naked power balance. And the bank's foreign exchange department, which was still choosing arbitrage transactions between the fluctuations of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, has also become more cautious. They don't know who will lose and who will win at this price. If they bet on the wrong chip, the loss will not be A star and a half.

For a time, only international speculators and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority were left in the market for Hong Kong dollar transactions. The fight between the two sides was often hundreds of millions or billions of Hong Kong dollars. This level of competition is rare even in the foreign exchange departments of banks. Not to mention currency speculators with smaller funds.

  The quotation of Hong Kong dollar kept jumping like a horse watching flowers, but it never broke through the 7.75 line, and the displayed trading volume curve was doubled. It is obvious that both parties have invested a huge amount of money. Finally, at the closing time, the attack of the short side slowed down, and the Hong Kong dollar began to recover slowly, and finally fixed at the price of 7.7490.

"How much US dollars did we spend?" By the time the market closed, the Hong Kong dollar was barely above 7.75, but the position of 7.7490 was already infinitely approaching 7.75. asked eagerly.

   "Including the daytime expenses, a total of 7.5 billion U.S. dollars was consumed on this day." The person in charge was expressionless, and whispered a figure that made Ren Yigang's eyelids twitch wildly.

  According to the normal transaction quota, the daily foreign exchange quota for Hong Kong dollars is about 1.5 billion US dollars, which includes frequent arbitrage capital from banks. In fact, the inflow or outflow of Hong Kong dollars (US dollars) is not so much, only half at most. But today, this number has expanded by a full 5 times, and most of them are not pure arbitrage, but real outflows.

  Excluding the usual transaction amount, and then doing a rough calculation, a rough figure popped up in Ren Yigang's mind: 6 billion U.S. dollars. According to today's transaction price, it is about 46 billion Hong Kong dollars. Compared with the foreign exchange reserves of the HKMA, 6 billion US dollars is not too much, but what if it happens again in the next trading day? What about the next trading day? Or is there more selling orders than this amount the next day?

  The financial market is full of too many variables and too many risks, and Ren Yigang, as the CEO of the Monetary Authority, absolutely cannot allow this situation to happen again. Therefore, he must do something.

   "Notify all department heads to hold an emergency meeting now." Ren Yigang's expression changed, and after half a day he suddenly became ruthless and said through gritted teeth: "The theme of the meeting is to prepare for raising interest rates!"

   Thanks to book friend Gong for casting monthly tickets with his left hand!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)