Chapter 312

  In fact, at this time, the bull side is suffering unspeakably, especially those small institutions with short-term overnight positions, who will vomit blood almost at the opening of the market.

  Perhaps the rise in the previous two days gave them a taste of the sweetness, so the small institutions that were originally engaged in short-term daily operations boldly kept their positions until the next day. As a result, within two days, the Hang Seng Index once again experienced a "stock crash" and plummeted by thousands of points as soon as the market opened, which meant that each of their long orders lost an instant loss of 50,000 Hong Kong dollars, and the brokerage firm immediately called .

It is even more tragic for those who hold a large amount of long positions. Their long positions in HSI futures may be for arbitrage or hedging, but no matter what the purpose is, the current situation is doomed to the tragic fate of most of them. .

If the focus of investment is on the spot market of Hong Kong stocks, and after seeing the continuous decline of Hong Kong stocks, if they decisively build a portfolio that is mainly short selling Hong Kong stocks and supplemented by long Hong Kong stock futures, then they may be secretly counting money now , because the situation at this time is favorable to them, even if the Hang Seng Index futures lose money, they still make money overall.

  It’s just that there are very few institutions that can make such a portfolio, because the Hong Kong stock index is basically composed of more than 90% of listed companies. In this case, unless a portfolio that is exactly the same as the Hong Kong stock index is constructed, it is inevitable that the decline will not match the Hang Seng Index. In this case, even if you make money by shorting the Hong Kong stock spot, the magnitude of the loss may not be comparable to the loss of the HSI futures in terms of hedging.

  For example, if some public service companies are included in a short-selling portfolio worth 1 billion Hong Kong dollars constructed by an institution, and these institutions have a heavy position and relatively sufficient cash flow, then these stocks are more resistant to falling. In the current situation where the entire market has fallen by more than 30%, because of the existence of these heavyweight stocks, this investment portfolio has fallen by no more than 20%. Assuming that the HSI futures has made a total of 500 million Hong Kong dollars in long positions, then the income will be about 200 million Hong Kong dollars, the loss will be 150 million Hong Kong dollars, and the final profit will be a net profit of 50 million Hong Kong dollars.

   This is naturally a better situation, but in fact, how could it be so accurate? And once the HSI spot position is unsatisfactory and the loss exceeds 200 million Hong Kong dollars, or the decline of the investment portfolio is relatively low and does not reach the level of 150 million Hong Kong dollars, then the entire investment portfolio will suffer losses.

Regarding this degree, it is very difficult to grasp. It is not bad if one out of ten fund managers in the market can achieve this. This involves the judgment of market trends, the establishment of investment portfolios, and the hedging mechanism. The distribution and the adjustment of positions at any time. More importantly, some funds are stock-oriented, that is to say, they are not hedge funds, so they can only watch their net worth shrink with nothing to do when the market plummets.

   As for arbitrage, it is even more tragic, especially purely in the Hang Seng Index futures market. Not to mention the premiums between long and short months, just talking about the wrong direction can already make many institutions specializing in arbitrage declare bankruptcy, especially in the Hang Seng Index futures market with a leverage of more than ten times.

For example, a futures fund specializing in arbitrage is long in the current month and short in the next month. The two positions are different. Among them, the current month is long with a total value of 10 million Hong Kong dollars with a quota of 10 million Hong Kong dollars (assuming The leverage is 10 times, the actual leverage is 1), and the contract is short selling 20 contracts. Since the previous market was optimistic, the fund shorted contracts worth 7 million Hong Kong dollars with a limit of 7 million Hong Kong dollars in November. In fact, it can’t do 17), the leverage and actual leverage are the same as last month.

Today's index plummeted by 1,000 points, and each contract lost 50,000 Hong Kong dollars. According to the above figures, the total monthly loss of long positions is 1 million Hong Kong dollars, and the loss rate is 10%. At the same time, it only made a profit of 850,000 Hong Kong dollars. When the two are converted, the total loss is 150,000 Hong Kong dollars.

   This is the better case, and with very little leverage. And if the actual leverage is 10, then the spot month contract has been liquidated at this time. Although the possible loss is still 150,000 Hong Kong dollars, the effect is completely different.

In fact, these are investment portfolios in the hedging mode. For most investors, the hedging mode is a relatively advanced investment mode, and most of them will choose a single direction of trading. This trading mode is It's a complete gamble, especially in a market where the Hang Seng Index's sharp rise and fall may exceed 1,000 points.

  …

  The index stopped around 9000 points, neither rising nor falling, and only fluctuated within a few tiny intervals, which made many investors feel strange.

  But for the long main funds, this is not surprising. Obviously, this is a signal released by the short side, and its meaning is to let the bulls close their positions with them at this point.

  In fact, after the 9200-point large-scale short position closing order was thrown out, the index then plummeted. Under such circumstances, many long positions have been forced to close their positions. Firstly, the magnitude of the gap jump today is too alarming, and their psychological defense can no longer be stretched. Secondly, as the index continues to fall, the book losses With the expansion, the cash left for them to maintain is getting less and less. In this case, they can only choose to close their positions.

Although the main bulls are still struggling to support, they also have to face the pressure from cash. After all, the current loss of a contract exceeds 50,000 Hong Kong dollars, and it is only today. If the price of opening a position is higher, this number may be even higher. big.

   The unwilling bulls then launched an attack in the spot market in an attempt to push the index higher, which could reduce their losses and ease the pressure from the short side. It's just that when they made a slight move, several heavyweight stocks in the market, such as Changhe Industrial, Hutchison Whampoa, HSBC Holdings, Sun Hung Kai, etc., immediately saw a steady stream of selling orders, which made them powerless and unable to push forward. The overall market index rose.

  More than that, the index, which was hovering around 9000 points, fell further and fell directly to the position of 8800, then rose slowly to 9000 points, and then continued to stay here.

   At this moment, the bulls fully understood that this was a naked demonstration by the bears: if they did not accept this price, they would further force the Hong Kong stock market to fall, causing them to lose even more.

   In desperation, the bull camp was the first to collapse. First, a small-stock long liquidation order was thrown out, and then a matching transaction was quickly carried out. After seeing this sign, the other bulls couldn't sit still. If they can't be leveled out in the first time, God knows what will happen. Driven by this kind of psychology, the bull side throws out large-scale liquidation orders one after another. After the bull side admits defeat, the short side does not make too much entanglement. Starting from the Hang Seng Index futures in October.

  The trading volume of the market has suddenly increased, but the index has remained calm, which seems to be a strange thing. Naturally, small shareholders and analysts don't understand, but big institutions and main funds understand what's going on.

  …

  Why short sellers can dominate the market and why there is a steady stream of spot lots being sold? This is probably the biggest doubt in the minds of investors who understand the strange market conditions today, including even hedge fund elites like Billy King.

"It's actually very simple, it's just a time difference." Julian Robertson smiled and said to a group of Tiger Fund executives including Billy King: "First of all, I have 5 billion Hong Kong stocks in hand. Later, I borrowed a total of 5 billion Hong Kong stocks from securities companies, which constituted a total investment portfolio of 10 billion Hong Kong stocks. While selling short, I gradually filled up a lot of positions. As of yesterday, I There are a total of 12 billion Hong Kong stocks on hand. Among them, 7 billion is the original Hong Kong stock spot, which is our own investment. The other 5 billion is the position after short selling and buying. This part of the spot is to returned to the broker."

"You know, our borrowing period is one month, and there are still a few trading days left, so we have enough time left. I believe that several other companies have the same plan as us, so the bulls want to exert their strength , Think about it, we have a total of tens of billions of spot sales, do they have the ability to eat it?"

   Speaking of this, Julian Robertson was already full of pride, and couldn't help laughing out loud.

"But?" Billy King frowned, glanced carefully at Julian Robertson, and saw that his face remained unchanged, and then continued: "In this way, our position appears to be too heavy, and what we hold The longer the time, the more unfavorable factors. After all, Southeast Asia is not ours..."

"No!" Julian Robertson stopped Billy King from continuing with a wave of his hand, "For some time in the future, Southeast Asia will be the focus of our investment. Do you think the Hong Kong market is over? Let me tell you, it's only a good show." It's just started!"

  Tiger Fund's executives were all stunned. They never expected that there would be a plan for the Southeast Asian market. But thinking of the benefits this time, their hearts became hot again. Yes, the benefits this time were quite generous, enough for them to get a large amount of bonuses.

  …

On October 28th, at the close, the Hang Seng Index rose slightly due to the large-scale liquidation of long and short positions in the futures index market near the end of the day. It closed at 9059 points and fell to 1438 points all day. point, the drop was as high as 13.70%. So far, the first wave of attacks by international speculators on the Hong Kong capital market has finally come to an end, if the attack in August is considered to be a test.

  From the highest point of 15242 points in early 10 to the current 9059 points, Hong Kong stocks have fallen by more than 5,000 points, and the market value has evaporated by one-third, reaching an astonishing 2.1 trillion Hong Kong dollars, which is about 300 billion U.S. dollars. And if these market values ​​are calculated with a 5% current share (this ratio is extremely conservative), the loss will be as high as about 15 billion US dollars. Including the Hong Kong stock futures market, interest rate market, etc., the loss in cash and silver is as high as at least 30 billion U.S. dollars. Naturally, these are extremely conservative and underestimated figures.

  In addition to this, losses in other industries such as real estate and banking are not included in the calculation.

As for hedge funds, the US$6 billion Hong Kong dollar spot was swept away from the Hong Kong capital market due to the exchange rate loss of no more than US$11.65 million and the interest loss of about US$350 million, which added up to no more than US$400 million. The number is as high as a hundred times, which also gave the Hong Kong market the "reputation" of "super cash machine".

  The Tiger Fund alone took away more than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars from the Hang Seng Index market in Hong Kong, which is about 500 million U.S. dollars. And these have not included the gains from the interest rate futures market and shorting Hong Kong stocks. If you want to give a rough figure, then this figure is close to 1 billion US dollars.

  …

   "No, the matter is far from over!"

  Zhong Shi looked at Ma Jiarui in front of him, and said decisively: "It seems that they have retreated, but the song is not over yet!"

   Thanks to book friends Guyuezhifeng and Shihuangtian for voting monthly tickets!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)