Chapter 352 Escape together

  The development of the situation was far more ferocious and tragic than Julian Robertson imagined. On the second day, Dongsi Securities, the fourth largest securities firm in South Korea, announced its bankruptcy.

To make matters worse, the rating agency Moody's also adjusted the credit ratings of Korean companies on a large scale on this day, including 31 companies or government agencies including Korea Telecom, LG, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, the Seoul government, and the Daegu government. Credit ratings have been downgraded by Moody's. Such a large-scale downgrade of credit rating is the first time in the history of Moody's, and this move naturally once again ignited the market's concerns about South Korea's debt default.

More and more companies are involved in the deep pool of the financial crisis, and there are rumors in the market that the actual debt of Korean domestic companies is as high as 100 billion U.S. dollars. The news of the bankruptcy of large enterprises has once again made the whole of South Korea the center of the storm.

Although there was news that the Bank of Korea intervened again, the market was not impressed by this, because at this time the entire Korean banking industry was overwhelmed. Just to deal with these bad debts was enough for the central bank (the Bank of Korea) to suffer. How much US dollar funds should be paid to meet the buying orders in the foreign exchange market?

On the 14th, when the Korean won started trading, the exchange rate of the Korean won to the US dollar continued to fall, continuing yesterday's downward trend, and soon fell below the level of 1,800 won to 1 US dollar. After breaking through this level, it fell again, heading directly to 1,900 won Go for the exchange rate of 1 US dollar.

"Zhong Sheng? Are we going to close the position according to the original plan today?" Ren Ruowei, who already knew that his defeat was a foregone conclusion, calmed down a lot today, calmly watching the price changes on the board, and said unhurriedly, " Judging from the current decline, it will soon approach the level of 2,000 won to 1 dollar, and it will not be too late for us to close our positions by then."

"Really?" Zhong Shi touched his nose with a slightly embarrassed expression, "Ren Sheng, if I told you that I was the one who released the news that the Korean won would fall to 2,000 won to 1 dollar, would you still think so? "

"..." Ren Ruowei's expression froze for a moment, he turned his head with great difficulty, stared at Zhong Shi for a long time with an expression of seeing a ghost in daylight, then gave a thumbs up and said through gritted teeth, "Zhong Sheng, count on it!" You are ruthless!"

While his brain was spinning rapidly, Ren Ruowei figured out the cause and effect, and let the market think that the Korean won was far from reaching the expected level by means of letting the air go. This wave of institutions remains on high.

And if Ren Ruowei wants to close the position at the position of 2000, not to mention whether there is such a possibility, at that time, I am afraid that all eyes in the market will be on the trend-setting hedge fund. A big buy order will be considered as they are closing the position. At that time, short-selling institutions will swarm up, and they will be able to carve up the profits of hedge funds in a few clicks. Although their overall positions may still be profitable, they must be much worse than expected.

   This is the price the leader needs to pay.

  Although Zhong Shi encouraged a part of the Hong Kong consortium to short the Korean won, he also had to beware that these people would stumbling behind him. We must know that the basis of everyone's cooperation is interests, and wherever there are interests, there will be struggles. This is beyond doubt.

   After taking a deep breath, Zhong Shi waved slightly to the traders who were waiting in line, and said softly: "Let's get started!"

  …

  United States, New York, Manhattan.

Julian Robertson was naturally overjoyed when he heard the news that Dongxi Securities had declared bankruptcy. There is nothing more exciting than hearing such news on this day. He even thought it was God's guidance for him to At this time, we can continue to make a fortune in South Korea.

   There is more than one piece of good news. Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of South Korean companies “just in time” at this time. If you think about it with your toes, you can imagine that the Korean won will fall sharply tonight.

   But soon, when Julian Robertson saw the familiar buying figure in the market again, his full of joy turned into deep suspicion, and his pale brows began to tighten.

"What the **** is this guy going to do?" After thinking for a long time, Julian Robertson simply gathered everyone in charge of the won, hoping to use the wisdom of everyone to find a reasonable logic to explain this obvious and market situation. contradictory trading behavior.

"Could it be the Bank of Korea's intervention?" The first person to speak was Billy King. He was the first to discover this situation. After counting the powerful buyers in the market, he finally locked his target on the Bank of Korea. body.

Robert Satron, the economist in charge of the Asian market, shook his head slightly, and said in an uncertain tone: "It makes sense, but it's unlikely. Not to mention whether the Bank of Korea has such strength, let's just say that this kind of The trading style is too high-profile, aren't they afraid of being exposed? It is said that South Korea currently only has 3.2 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves to support it until the end of the year, and the South Korean government also requires the IMF to allocate a second aid fund as soon as possible. In this case It should be impossible for them to intervene in the foreign exchange market with such a high profile, right?"

  Hearing this, Billy King tilted his head and thought for a while, before he nodded heavily at Robert Sitron, expressing his agreement with him.

"If it is not the Bank of Korea, then there is only one possibility, that is, hedge funds like us. This kind of buying behavior is closing positions. Behind them is that they believe that the Korean won has fallen to the bottom and there is no possibility of falling again." When everyone was thinking hard, a foreign exchange trader named Dan Morehead suddenly spoke.

This trader is in charge of the Japanese yen market. Since the Korean won market has attracted the attention of the entire Asian market recently, although the economic scale is second only to the United States, and the economic foundation is much stronger than these countries where the currency crisis broke out, the Japanese yen The trend of the currency is still inevitably affected by currencies such as the Thai baht and the Korean won.

   Therefore, as a yen trader, we must also pay close attention to these factors that can affect the trend of the yen, including the rise and fall of the Korean won.

"No! No! No!" Julian Robertson shook his head vigorously, waved his hand at Dan Morehead, and said, "I tested Druckenmiller yesterday, and they didn't short the Korean won market too much The position is only a few hundred million dollars, and Stanley told me unequivocally that they have no movement in the Korean won. In fact, they are now being burned by the Indonesian rupiah on hand, and they have no mind to think about it at all. question."

Julian Robertson and Stanley Druckenmiller have a very good personal relationship, which is a well-known fact within Tiger Fund, so when Julian Robertson said these words, almost everyone subconsciously regarded Quantum Funds are excluded. Specifically, it is to rule out the possibility mentioned by Dan Morehead just now.

"But, gentlemen!" Dan Morehead couldn't help a little anxious, and argued red-faced, "Gentlemen, Quantum Fund is not the only one with such a large capital scale in the world. Among other things, Tudor Investment and Moore Capital has this strength. If they buy hundreds of billions of won, I am afraid that no one here will think it is impossible. Besides, as far as I know, there are many powerful funds in the Japanese market. The scale of capital is not inferior to ours. In addition, in London, Frankfurt or even Hong Kong, if you want to find institutions or companies with such a scale of capital, it is simply a handful.”

   "Dan, what exactly do you want to say?" After listening for a long time, most people were confused, including Julian Robertson. Seeing what he said went around, "Tiger" simply asked straight to the point.

Seeing the big boss's words, Dan Morehead didn't make any rounds anymore, and poured out all his thoughts: "Gentlemen, it doesn't really matter who is buying Korean won at the moment. The important thing is that we can't let The market thinks that we are responsible for these actions. Think about it, if it is reported that Tiger Fund has started to liquidate positions in the Korean won at this time, how will the market react?"

  The people present here are all extremely active characters. After thinking for a while, they understood Dan Morehead's meaning. Immediately, there was a sound of gasping for air, and even Julian Robertson's face changed.

"Dan, according to what you said, we should stop selling and do nothing?" After a full half minute of silence, someone asked. The person who spoke was Billy King. After all, he was directly responsible People who buy and sell Korean won. At this time, he had just recovered from the shock, and his tone was slightly unfriendly.

  To everyone's surprise, Dan Morehead shook his head directly, flatly denied the proposal, and said, "Billy, no offense. If we don't do anything, I'm afraid there will be trouble immediately."

"Huh?" Billy King frowned, and just about to have an attack, suddenly a flash of light flashed in his mind, which reminded him of something, and immediately slapped his thigh and said, "That's right! We really shouldn't just do nothing! In fact , we should close the position and join the buying party as soon as possible!"

   After finishing speaking, he was still unsatisfied. He gave Dan Morehead a thumbs up and praised without hesitation: "Well done, buddy!"

  Seeing his reaction, everyone was stunned, and most of them showed puzzled expressions in their eyes. But soon someone else figured out the reason, and said it in private, and it didn't take long for everyone who participated in the discussion to understand it.

"Herding! This damned herding!" Julian Robertson wiped his hair, his face was very ugly, and after seeing everyone's eyes focused on him, he said bitterly, "If this is the case, then Let's close the position."

  The herd effect means that people are often influenced by the majority to follow the thoughts or behaviors of the public, also known as the "herd effect". People will follow what the public agrees, deny their own opinions by default, and will not think about the significance of events subjectively.

  The herd effect in economics means that there are investors in the market who have not formed their own expectations or obtained first-hand information, and they will change their behavior according to the behavior of other investors.

  This kind of effect is to put it bluntly, what the master buys, other people follow suit. It's like the market in later generations favors Buffett and the A-share market pursues Wang Yawei. As long as they buy something in the announced position, other people will enter the market without considering the logical support and whether they have already established a position. It may cause the target to skyrocket in the short term.

  The current situation is that Julian Robertson and the others are very clear that although they have not closed their positions on the Korean won, almost the market knows that he is the market leader and the "leader". And the current large-scale buying behavior is very likely to be regarded as liquidation. As long as someone with a heart makes a little noise, other "sheep" will immediately change direction, from short to liquidation or even long, regardless of the fundamentals What is the situation.

  Although it will not damage the income of the average position, but compared with the price that has not yet appeared similar to the wind, the profit will undoubtedly shrink a lot, so it is inevitable to close the position as soon as possible. In this case, even if Julian Robertson was unwilling, he had to choose to close his position.

   In this way, Tiger Fund quickly changed its strategy and began to close positions at high levels. The confluence of their funds and the Tianyu Fund immediately launched a strong impact on the surging selling orders in the market, and the exchange rate that had fallen to 1,900 won to 1 dollar also began to slowly rise. But most of the participants in the market are not aware of this change at all, and are still selling like crazy. In this game of buying and selling, the Korean won on this day was finally fixed at the level of 1,891 won to the US dollar, setting a new low for the exchange rate of the won to the US dollar again, but it did not fall to the 1,900 range anyway.

   After the market closed, there was another gossip from the South Korean side. The Bank of Korea intervened again today and will invest a huge amount of money to intervene as soon as possible to ensure that the Korean won will not plummet again. Naturally, the market took the news as a joke again.

South Korea's Finance Minister Lim Chang-yeol also made a public speech today regarding the market's view that the newly elected South Korean government may violate the current agreement with the IMF. He said: "Our commitment to the International Monetary Fund to implement these conditions has no Any reservations, contrary to some negative reports, South Korea promised to do things as planned, some ahead of schedule."

In addition to these, the South Korean side also announced that in the current account of the balance of payments last month, the South Korean side achieved a surplus of 500 million U.S. dollars last month. This is the first time since 94 years that South Korea has achieved surplus.

  The ants on the hot pot can no longer sit still, and can only jump out actively. Although facing a general election, Kim Young-sam's regime must stand its last post in this precarious situation. After the Korean won plummeted for two consecutive days, they finally began to tentatively release some good news to the market. It's just how the effect is, I'm afraid only God knows!

   Thanks to book friend Tokihikari for voting for the first monthly ticket of this month!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)