Chapter 373 Another trap?

  Hong Kong, Hong Kong Island.

  Although it was late at night, many floors of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority building in the Central District were still brightly lit. In fact, many skyscrapers in Central are still bustling and busy. As a world-class financial center, many practitioners here need to pay attention to the performance of New York, London, Frankfurt and other markets.

  Since the second wave of currency turmoil started in the Hong Kong market last time, the Monetary Authority has been closely monitoring the performance of Hong Kong dollar forwards in various financial markets, including Hong Kong. Although the international speculators were successfully defeated last time, insiders of the HKMA knew that the opponents did not use their full strength.

  The sale of HK$6 billion did not hurt the HKMA. Later, the HKMA’s foreign exchange reserves increased due to the rise in the value of the Hong Kong dollar, which was a blessing in disguise.

   Soon, the monetary turmoil spreading from Hong Kong left the HKMA staff stunned and terrified. South Korea, the eleventh largest economy in the world, was completely defeated by international hot money in half a month. It claims to have more than 60 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves, which were quickly exhausted in the battle to defend the won. Korean banks have only a few billion dollars on their books. The development of this situation has greatly shocked the senior management of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, so that they no longer dare to take it lightly.

   In fact, the Hong Kong economy and the South Korean economy were completely different a few months ago. From a large perspective, the South Korean economy is mainly export-oriented. Domestic enterprises have borrowed large-scale debts for rapid development, and they are full of energy to occupy overseas markets. The export economy has also been under pressure to appreciate. Under such circumstances, as long as the South Korean won shows signs of depreciation, the huge amount of domestic debt will face huge payment pressure, and funds will immediately flow out quickly. The debt of hundreds of billions of dollars is definitely not something that the Bank of Korea's foreign exchange reserves can withstand. of.

   Hong Kong is completely different. Hong Kong itself is a free port, and it is the most economically free region in the world. Under this economic system, the Hong Kong dollar has no pressure to appreciate or depreciate, so the Hong Kong government can implement the linked exchange rate system. To put it bluntly, Hong Kong plays the role of a transit station in the world's economic sector. It does not have much input or output. Even if it has these inputs and outputs, the cost added to it is almost negligible.

  Singapore also plays the same role as Hong Kong, but on the one hand, Singapore is subject to political factors, and on the other hand, because its geographical area cannot be compared with Hong Kong, it is slightly inferior in terms of economic aggregate and importance. But because Singapore is located at the throat of the Strait of Malacca, freighters from Europe, the Indian Ocean, the Middle East to the hinterland of East Asia all pass through here, so to some extent it is half as important as Hong Kong.

  Because the two places have similar economic structures, during this currency crisis, even though several nearby countries have turned into economic crises, the currencies of the two places are still immobile.

Unlike Hong Kong, due to the high degree of government intervention in the market, Singapore may even sell the US dollar when the currency value is high. In addition, there is no problem with their domestic economic structure, so that international capital basically has no chance to short the new currency. Yuan. Therefore, under such circumstances, Hong Kong, which strongly believes in a free market economy, has become the first choice for international hot money.

  The situation has developed to this point, and there are not many countries that can be attacked. There are two other countries in this region, one is Japan. With Japan's economic aggregate and foreign exchange reserves, ten times the sales volume similar to that of South Korea's currency crisis may not shake the foundation of Japan's economy, and their capital is huge. Some still come from the yen market with low interest rates, so Japan is basically excluded from international hot money.

  The other country is Huaxia. This country currently implements a fixed exchange rate system, and all foreign exchange transactions must go through the central bank. Although RMB foreign exchange transactions have also been set up in Lihai, their largest city, the transaction volume is almost negligible. Huaxia, which has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves and strict capital controls, has fundamentally cut off the possibility of shorting international capital.

  Hong Kong, only Hong Kong can let them flex their muscles.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is naturally aware of all this. After fully analyzing the performance of markets such as South Korea and Indonesia, they know that international hot money will not stop there. Therefore, they are ready to deal with sudden challenges in all major Hong Kong dollar markets. .

   "Nian Tao, how is the situation?" Handing over a cup of coffee, Ren Yigang, President of the HKMA, asked calmly.

Affected by the Indonesian market on this day, the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar to U.S. dollar continued to fall, especially in the past few days, it has been fluctuating around 7.7480 to 7.7490, and it rushed to the position of 7.7494 yesterday, which is only one step away from the psychological barrier of 7.75 generally believed by the market remote.

  In the past few days, the entire HKMA has been facing an enemy, even the top management is no exception. Vice President Shen Niantao has stayed up all night for several consecutive nights. With red eyes, he took the coffee from Ren Yigang's hand, and at the same time he did not forget to take a look at the real-time quotation of Hong Kong dollars in the trading floor, and then said worriedly: "Not too optimistic, the market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, it is not clear whether there is any international Speculators are playing tricks behind their backs."

"Don't care about them!" Ren Yigang waved his hand and said vigorously, "These young people can't cause too much trouble. Today the chief executive said that the central government will fully support Hong Kong. Although it is not yet time for a new term, Zhugeguan will soon He will come to power, and then he will deliver a harsh speech, and he does not rule out directly diverting funds from the central government to support Hong Kong."

Ren Yigang's words were like thunder in his ears, and suddenly set off a storm in Shen Niantao's heart, although he has always been very clear that the central government will not allow Hong Kong to be attacked by international hot money, because this is not only related to Hong Kong's economic development, but also political. However, this is the first time he has heard of the statement that "direct transfer of funds is not ruled out". You must know that the mainland of China has foreign exchange reserves of more than 100 billion US dollars at this time. As long as a small amount is allocated, the Hong Kong dollar can definitely be defended as solid as gold.

What Shen Niantao didn't know was that the central government allocated 20 billion US dollars of funds to the Hong Kong stock market as early as September. The purpose was to maintain Hong Kong's stability and prosperity. The money is in the stock market.

Hearing the news, Shen Niantao immediately cheered up, put the coffee cup away, rubbed his hands excitedly, and kept asking: "Did Mr. Dong say how much the central government plans to support and when?" ?” Without waiting for Ren Yigang to answer, he said self-consciously: “By the way, this depends on the overall planning of the central government. After all, we can only make a move when necessary. However, such a move will definitely give international speculators a re-importance. I really want to see the opponent throw away their armor and armor in defeat."

  For such a high-ranking vice president to lose his composure so much, it can be seen how heavy the pressure he has been carrying recently.

Ren Yigang was not surprised by Shen Niantao's gaffe. After a slight smile, he said in a low voice, "Niantao, keep it secret. It is estimated that next year or sometime, the chief executive will make a speech on Hong Kong's economy. We just need to know it internally. "

Shen Niantao, who had reacted, also noticed his gaffe, nodded embarrassingly, and then turned his head to look at the screen, trying to find some topics to get rid of the current embarrassing situation, but was surprised to find that the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate had unexpectedly reached 7.7499.

  He rubbed his eyes hastily, fearing that he had misread it, but at that very moment, the latest quotation in the market jumped to 7.75, which is generally considered by the market to be an important psychological threshold for the Hong Kong dollar to dollar exchange rate.

   "This..." Shen Niantao turned his head, and was about to ask Ren Yigang beside him, but found that his face was serious, his brows were furrowed, and he looked at the board without saying a word. This weird scene immediately made him give up the idea of ​​speaking.

   "Nian Tao" a full minute later, Ren Yi said just now, "Tell me, what should we do now? What is the reason for this situation?"

  Since Shen Niantao has always been in charge of the foreign exchange business, and he himself has been immersed in the financial market for many years, even if Ren Yigang is the president of the HKMA, he still has to refer to some opinions of the other party.

Shen Niantao just didn't realize it for a while, and when Ren Yigang asked, he already had some calculations in his mind, "Under such circumstances, it is natural that our HKMA takes action to bring the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar back to the normal range. Nothing else It is said that if this situation continues until tomorrow daytime, the market will definitely think that international speculators are attacking the Hong Kong market again, and Hong Kong stocks may plummet again by then.”

   While talking, he looked at Ren Yigang's face, saw the other party nodded frequently, and then said loudly: "Traders are on standby (standby), first sell 100 million US dollars, and test the market's reaction."

The traders have long been aware of the market situation, and they also know what will happen next, and they have long been prepared, so when Shen Niantao gave an order, most of them began to clatter on the keyboard, and some Someone dialed the phone, ready to sell dollars at this price.

  Three minutes later, a sale of 100 million US dollars was put on the market, but to everyone's surprise, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate fell instead of rising, and fell by two basis points again, reaching a price of 7.7502.

Beads of sweat came out of Shen Niantao's forehead all of a sudden. At this time, he didn't care about Ren Yigang's presence, and immediately shouted at the trader with all hands and feet: "Get started immediately, call the three major banks, and ask Be clear about their positions. In addition, if you sell another 500 million US dollars, I can't believe that the market can eat so much!"

  Under normal circumstances, 100 million U.S. dollars is more than 700 million Hong Kong dollars. Such an amount of currency entering the market will definitely cause fluctuations. You must know that although the currency market is huge, the number of transactions between buyers and sellers is in the hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, and the amount of tens of millions of dollars is relatively rare.

  The US$100 million disappeared without a trace like a mud cow into the sea, without even a ripple, Shen Niantao was not allowed to "think wild".

  The traders with a clear division of labor quickly divided up their respective shares and got busy again. This time it took a long time. After all, it takes time to digest 500 million US dollars. This time the market finally gave a response, but what is even more weird is that the Hong Kong dollar sellers who had previously eaten up 100 million US dollars disappeared without a trace, while the market is full of Hong Kong dollar buyers. They want to take advantage of this rebound opportunity to earn exchange rate difference, so they have emerged one after another.

  The feedback from the three major banks quickly reached Shen Niantao's ears. They have not made any short-term huge loans recently. The security deposit is in full compliance with the regulations, and it is ready to handle inspections by the HKMA at any time.

  Since HSBC, Standard Chartered and Bank of China are the legal note-issuing banks in Hong Kong, the HKMA has the most stringent management of their position margins. International speculators want to borrow Hong Kong dollars, and these three banks are naturally the best choice. In fact, these three banks are the only ones under the jurisdiction of the HKMA. For other banks, it is simply impossible for the HKMA to prohibit them from lending funds to international speculators.

The change in the market trend also made the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar stronger against the U.S. dollar. Driven by the huge purchase order from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar unexpectedly experienced a rare surge. It quickly rebounded from the lowest point of 7.7502 to above 7.75. After the above, it did not stop, and continued to rise towards the high level, and then broke through 7.745, 7.74, 7.735 and other barriers. At the highest point, it even rushed to the price of 7.7315, and finally fell back slightly, staying at the level of 7.7319 Hong Kong dollars to 1 US dollar. The daily volatility reached a staggering 0.23%.

   "This price is not bad. At least for a period of time in the future, we don't have to worry about the Hong Kong dollar falling to a psychological level." After the market closed, Shen Niantao cheerfully said to Ren Yigang, who had been silent all along.

   "Not necessarily!" Ren Yigang shook his head slowly, "The movement is too loud, but it may not be a good thing."

  Recently, the Hong Kong dollar has fluctuated around 0.01% every day, and it was only 0.04% at the peak, but today it suddenly appeared at 0.23%, which is almost 6 times the peak and 23 times the usual fluctuation. Although the direction of fluctuation is rising, Ren Yigang has an intuition that they have fallen into the other party's trap again in their operations today.

   Sure enough, the news of the large-scale fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar spread throughout the Hong Kong capital market the next day, and with this news came rumors that international speculators returned to Hong Kong. Although there is no evidence to support this view, investors have cast a shadow over their heads, and this invisible shadow has caused Hong Kong stocks to fall again.

   Thanks to book friends dkmiror, 8112268536, Huange, topdown, for making me think... and so many book friends who voted for so many monthly votes! At the same time, thanks to the book friend Ya'an Xinya for the reward! Thank you all, the author is very grateful~~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)