Chapter 384 Buy a capped auction budget

Zhong Shi’s analysis is not wrong. In the evening session on January 12, the cost of Hong Kong dollars in the hands of international speculators has increased significantly due to holding for a weekend. On the other hand, they have also achieved their goal of shorting Hong Kong stocks. Therefore, The number of liquidated positions was relatively large, and finally the Hong Kong dollar soared by 0.14% to close at 7.7389 to 1 US dollar, and returned to within 7.73.

  However, in order to cooperate with the Hong Kong stock market, international speculators did not stop there. In fact, it is impossible for them to lose their funds all at once. In order to continue to put pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, they continued to confront the Hong Kong stock market with the HKMA for half a month. During this period, they once sold the Hong Kong dollar to 7.75, but in the end they were pushed back by the HKMA, and finally reached 1 On March 27, the Hong Kong dollar was re-stabilized, because it was approaching, and the delivery time of the Hang Seng Index futures in January arrived.

As for the Hong Kong stock market, there was a rebound of more than 500 points on the 13th and 14th, but the shadow of international speculators has been shrouded in the Hang Seng market. In the end, even on January 27, the last trading day of the Lunar New Year, the Hong Kong stock market did not recover and closed at 9252 points.

Looking at this Hong Kong stock crisis, international speculators entered the market around 11,500 points, first suppressed the index, and then absorbed the short-selling orders of the Hang Seng Index in the market, and then began to exert force at 10,500 points, during which they suppressed the Hang Seng Index to the lowest point of 7909 points , although it rebounded afterwards, it still did not recover under the strong pressure of short positions. In the end, the final closing point of the January contract was around 9300.

   Not counting the cost of swapping positions, international speculators can earn 2,000 points per short sell order, and at most 3,500 points. Of course, this is an extreme situation. During this period, 10,000 short selling orders are estimated to earn about 1 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about 134 million U.S. dollars. In addition, in order to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will also push up the exchange rate between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar, so this Figures are only low estimates.

Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund both sold 40,000 short positions in the Hang Seng Index this time, and they were also the initiators of this operation. After this operation alone, they took in at least 500 million U.S. dollars, and the cost The aspect is almost negligible, at most only about 100 million Hong Kong dollars.

  This is why Hong Kong has been repeatedly attacked by international hedge funds. In addition to political factors, the reputation of "super cash machine" is indeed worthy of the name.

And all of this is only a part of the income of international speculators in the derivatives market. In fact, as the Hong Kong stock market rises, the value of the stocks they hold will rise again. This is also part of the income, although it is far less scary than the futures market. But because the base is huge, the profit is also very considerable.

Without the double pressure of international speculators from the currency and futures markets, the Hong Kong stock market skyrocketed on the first day of the opening of the Lunar New Year in February. It rushed to 10,578 points in one breath, and rose as high as 1,326 points throughout the day, an increase of 14.33. %. This increase made Song Ling and others laugh, and the pressure on the funds disappeared without a trace.

After experiencing this time, international speculators also know that their repeated strategies are likely to be figured out. Ordinary investors must have learned a lesson about this, and then their attacks on Hong Kong switched to another The strategy, using a small knife to cut flesh, pushed Hong Kong stocks into the abyss step by step until they were completely sniped and suffered heavy losses.

  However, these are things for later.

  After paying 100 million Hong Kong dollars in dividends to Ma Jiarui's team, Zhong Shi began to work non-stop on the acquisition of Peregrine's assets.

  Ma Jiarui’s team has only ten members. This time, each person received an average of 10 million Hong Kong dollars, which is 1.334 million U.S. dollars, which is more than half of the previous bonus for all members. This naturally made each of them laugh from ear to ear. They agreed that it was correct to give up the vacation this time, otherwise they would definitely miss the money.

"Judging from the current feedback information, there are not many customers interested in this asset, but many people are determined to win it. Especially the Singapore oil refinery, they have long wanted to control some upper industries. This time, it is said that Temasek's top management personally dispatched , want to win this oil business.”

  The speaker was a middle-aged man in his thirties, named Gao Yiming, who was pointing at the PPT file on the screen with a baton. He has an ordinary face, nothing worth mentioning, but his beard is clean-shaven. The outfit is extremely elegant, D&G suits and Prada shoes are all very bright and eye-catching. It's a pity that all of his careful preparations did not come into Zhong Shi's sight at all, because Zhong Shi didn't know these brands at all.

  Of course, Gao Yiming didn't expect to be able to convince the other party with a glamorous outfit. This is not practical at all. What can convince the other party is naturally professional knowledge and judgment.

  In the list of assets sold by Peregrine this time, some of them are special direct investment projects, which are shares exchanged for direct investment in certain assets. Most of the investment projects are in infrastructure construction, such as highways and rubber factories in Thailand and the Philippines.

  One of them is Peregrine's oil and gas business invested in Indonesia, and the target is an Indonesian company called Peregrine. This company accounts for about 5% of the total oil and gas production in the Indonesian oil and gas market. Its business scope ranges from exploration to crude oil refining. It is a comprehensive oil group integrating upstream and downstream.

Due to the obvious decline in Indonesia's oil output in the past two years, OPEC has already voiced Indonesia's exclusion from this organization, coupled with Pertamina's long-term monopoly on the domestic market, and the Indonesian government also has subsidies, making Indonesia's domestic energy prices extremely cheap. So the company is basically unprofitable in the Indonesian market.

   With no hope of domestic sales, this company can only choose to export, but the international crude oil price has been hovering around $20, and the crude oil in the Middle East has some overcapacity, let alone Indonesian crude oil? China is still a net exporter of crude oil these days, and the crude oil of Pertamina has no good outlet except for exporting to Japan.

However, the senior executives of this company are extremely shrewd. They have long noticed China's huge market and rapid economic growth. He believes that the future energy price will definitely rise sharply due to the increase in demand, so he spares no effort in exploration and mining. cost, so that the company's cash will inevitably fall into a passive position. But soon Peregrine's direct investment department came to the door, and the two parties naturally hit it off. Peregrine bought 40% of the company's shares for US$400 million.

   This is the largest single investment of Peregrine in the Indonesian market, and it is also one of the few big businesses in the asset list. However, due to the stable oil price in the international market and the huge amount of funds required, even after the news was released, there were very few buyers.

Compared with the cold reception here, Peregrine's investment banking department has been snapped up. Many financial institutions, including Huayin Hong Kong, BNP, Credit Suisse, have extended an olive branch to Nian Botao and his team. The conditions for the offer are also more favorable than the other. In short, Nian Botao and his team are the daughters of the emperor, and they are definitely not afraid of not being able to find another family.

The liquidation of Peregrine's assets is proceeding in an orderly manner, but the most difficult projects are left for final processing, and PricewaterhouseLaw, which is responsible for handling the liquidation of Peregrine, has even issued a "hero" on a global scale. Post", hoping to live up to expectations and sell Peregrine's assets at the best price.

It is also a coincidence that Price Law Firm originally entrusted major commercial banks and investment banks to issue liquidation lists to their clients in order to enable these financial institutions to purchase various bonds held by Peregrine, unexpired options etc. But when it came to Tianyu Fund, it turned out to be buying their assets in Indonesia.

  Although Ma Jiarui is very disapproving of Zhong Shi's intention to intervene in the industry, in the end this matter must be firmly implemented. Although he and his team knew nothing about negotiation, this did not prevent them from hiring a professional team. Soon, Gao Yiming's team frequently appeared in the Tianyu Fund's office area.

"With all due respect, if only negotiations can resolve it, we are confident that the price will be lowered at US$300 million, because firstly, the other party needs to cash out quickly, and secondly, because of the economic crisis in Indonesia, the stock of Pertamina has plummeted, and now These stocks have a market capitalization of less than $250 million at today’s exchange rates.”

Gao Yiming's tone could not help but feel a little regretful. Since Price Law Firm entrusted the auction house to conduct a small-scale auction this time, the series of negotiation strategies they designed before were useless. Most of the work they do now is to Suggest the reserve price to Zhong Shi, and spy on the opponent's market by the way.

   "Then what is your suggestion?" Zhong Shi was noncommittal, listened to his long speech carefully, and said indifferently, "250 million US dollars? 300 million US dollars? Or is it another figure?"

In fact, in his heart, Zhong Shi was a little disgusted with this guy's show off, and he had already begun to regret why he hired such an inconspicuous "professional" team. At least from a financial point of view, they were much worse than the employees of Tianyu Fund up.

  There are two other people in Gao Yiming's team, one is a lady in her mid-mature and the other is a young man with a hairy head. They don't look like people in charge, so Zhong Shi naturally doesn't say anything to them.

Although the other party didn't look very good, but soon the middle-aged woman was keenly aware of the impatience in Zhong Shi's tone, she immediately stood up, took Gao Yiming's words, and said: "Zhong Sheng, In fact, you may not be aware that even in this kind of public auction, there are still many unknown avenues in it, and laymen may get stuck if they don’t get advice.”

   While speaking, she shook her hand behind her back to Gao Yiming, signaling him not to interrupt.

   "Oh?" Zhong Shi immediately became interested, "Tell me, what kind of knowledge is there in this? It seems that I did not invite you wrongly. At least on this point, you still have some knowledge."

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, cold sweat immediately broke out on Gao Yiming's forehead. He dared to waste so much saliva just now. He only went in the left ear and out the right ear. If this colleague named Hao Shuping didn't interrupt in time, they might About to be fired on the spot.

"Actually, auctions are all a psychological game!" Hao Shuping said leisurely, without any panic in her tone, "Specifically, if they didn't think this business is profitable, they wouldn't sell it either. But every organization There is a bottom line, which is based on rational analysis and judgment, just like my colleague Gao Sheng said."

  This Ms. Hao did not forget to point out between the lines that her colleague's performance just now was not doing useless work! Well, it's a bit daft, Zhong Shi thought so, and immediately nodded slightly, motioning for the other party to continue talking.

"However, no matter what, the focus of determining the success or failure of the auction lies in the prospects of this business and the determination of the transaction. At least in this respect, we are far behind our competitors. It is Temasek, which represents Singapore's oil refining industry, and they have a kind of confidence that they are bound to win, which I did not find in Zhong Sheng."

"Of course, regardless of these factors, I think there may be deviations in our valuation. But these don't matter, and the other party may not be able to give real figures. If we use some strategies to test out the other party's psychological price, we are still the same. It can turn defeat into victory."

"Just now, my colleague has said that the real market value of this transaction is about 250 million US dollars. The reserve price should not exceed this figure, but this figure may change at any time, so we must prepare some more funds just in case .In addition, I hope that Zhong Sheng can disclose the maximum amount of funds used, so that we can implement it as much as possible in the auction. Of course, as your representative party, we will definitely do our best to lower the price.”

"Perhaps you don't know that in some auctions, in order to maximize profits, some institutions do not hesitate to look for a bid that may be accepted to raise the price. Of course, this kind of immoral behavior will be condemned by the entire industry, but If this situation really exists, I would like to remind Zhong Sheng that these off-market tricks will greatly damage your interests."

"So there are so many ways!" Zhong Shi nodded noncommittally, and said casually, "As for the reserve price, 300 million to 350 million US dollars should be enough. As for other aspects, it depends on your impromptu performance. However, just in case In case, I will also participate in this auction."

   This woman rambled on for a long time, basically without any substance, so Zhong Shi was naturally a little irritable. From his point of view, an extra tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars is not a problem at all, but he would never have thought that such a difference in numbers would be an astronomical figure in the eyes of others.

  In fact, in his heart, there is no upper limit to the budget for this transaction, but in order not to shock the world too much, he didn't even tell Ma Jiarui.

   Thank you book friend Shihuangtian, who deeply tempted me, for voting for the monthly ticket!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)