Chapter 399 Indonesia's Response

   “Is there someone selling a lot of rupiah in the market?”

  The person who spoke was Hamati Bin Muhammad, the governor of the Bank of Indonesia, who is what Julian Robertson called an "unlearned and inexperienced person". It’s just that “Tiger” doesn’t know that he once studied in Cambridge, which is the European headquarters of the New Keynesians, and the academic requirements are almost harsh. Even Joseph Stiglitz, the current chief economist of the World Bank, eats there. Suffering. And Hametti was able to obtain a doctorate, which is obviously not an "embroidered pillow".

  When Ahmadi returned to China, he started his career from the middle level of Bank Indonesia, and climbed to the throne of today's central bank governor almost step by step.

   Originally Suharto's confidant, he recently encountered a little trouble. To be precise, the trouble was not caused by him, but he was the one who was finally blamed.

  The Indonesian rupiah plummeted.

  Many people are dissatisfied with Ahmadi.

  As long as individuals, enterprises or institutions involved in foreign trade settlement are dissatisfied with the central bank's inability to control the decline of the Indonesian rupiah.

  Think about it too. Last year, most of the time last year, it was possible to exchange U.S. dollars above 3,500 dong, but this year, the price has become 7,000 dong for 1 dollar, and even plummeted to 13,000 dong for 1 U.S. dollar. This plunge has cost them dearly in their fortunes.

  Ahmeti is well aware of the reasons. Although he is the chief executive in charge of monetary policy, he is powerless to deal with this situation.

  There is no other reason. Bank Indonesia is only a subsidiary of the government and has no relative independence. Just imagine that in a dictatorship, where would there be government agencies outside the system?

When the President ordered the Bank of Indonesia to establish a fixed exchange rate system, he was naturally the first to jump out against it, even threatening to resign, but Tommy only said lightly, "If you don't do it, there will naturally be a lot of money in the future." people waiting to do" and sent him off.

   Moreover, if he resigns at this time, all the scapegoat will be borne by him. Hametti is not reconciled, so he withdraws his verbal resignation angrily.

  Ahmadi is a ***. He wears a long black coat with a round neck all the year round, looking dignified and conservative, which is in line with his status as a high-ranking official. And a white round hat worn on the top of the head all the year round is a symbol of Mao Zedong's status.

  Although he is in a high position and pampered, Hamadi's complexion is not good. Originally, he had a round and fat face, but over the past few months, he has become so thin that his chin has turned into an awl. There were a few more dimples on his forehead, his two eye sockets were red and slightly swollen, his plump lips were so dry that they were cracked, and there were faint traces of blood.

  Although the hairline keeps receding, Ahmedi still manages her hair meticulously. After hearing the staff's report, he subconsciously wiped his shiny hair, adjusted his wide gold-rimmed glasses, sighed, and then asked, "What's the current quotation of the forward contract?" ?”

"The quotation for the May forward contract is 8024/48, the March forward contract is 8541/93, and the one-year quotation is 9410/51, all at a discount." Susilo reported a group of Data, with a sentence added at the end, "This is from five minutes ago."

  The quotation of the March forward contract fell more than the limit set by the Central Bank of Indonesia, which shows that the market does not believe that the Bank of Indonesia can survive for three months.

Susilo was the one who tipped off Rodney Jones before, and he was also sitting in the meeting room of the Central Bank at this time. Although his rank was a bit lower, now is the time to brainstorm, so there is his position.

  The staff who were about to report the situation were taken aback for a moment, and subconsciously turned their heads to look at Susilo, and the others sitting in the meeting room also looked towards Susilo. Susilo remained expressionless, took out a delicate and unique mobile phone from his pocket, and shook it at everyone, "Blackberry, the message from five minutes ago."

"Okay, don't worry about the mobile phone issue now." Hamady gave him a dissatisfied look, knocked on the table, and drew everyone's attention back, "The forward contract market is low, we should do something What, otherwise the fixed exchange rate system won’t last long.”

  He said such words without hesitation, and naturally he felt a little resentful in his heart. If Suharto does not intervene in the foreign exchange market and allows it to float freely, the central bank only needs to actively guide the market, instead of putting all the pressure of currency exchange on its shoulders as it is now.

In addition to Bank Indonesia, many other large banks, including Bank Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, Central Bank of Asia, and Indonesian Independent Bank, have been informed by the government that they will also fully support Indonesia's fixed exchange rate system.

   It's just that these banks, which are among the best in Indonesia, are really unable to sell internationally. Maybe in terms of total assets, they can compete with international hot money, but in terms of cash flow, they are far behind. Hamady is well aware of this, so naturally he doesn't hesitate to speak.

   "We can follow the example of Thailand!" Nanik Udami said, "Restricting short-term lending by foreign banks, increasing lending rates, and our own intervention, should be able to defeat international speculators. Isn't Hong Kong an example?"

   Nanik is a pure Indonesian aborigine, not a descendant of a foreign ethnic group, so he looks a bit shabby. The forehead is broad and high, but the eyes are narrow and narrow, the nose is low and round, the lips are thick and protruding, and there are some buck teeth. In addition to these distinctive facial features, his skin is also the darkest among all the people present. This kind of black is not the kind of wheat black exposed to the sun, but the imprint of skin color brought out from the mother's womb.

  Although Nanik is only a university graduate in his own country, he also has certain influence in the Bank of Indonesia because he represents the clan power of the indigenous people. He is currently the vice-president in charge of inter-ethnic loan coordination in Indonesia.

"Your suggestion is good!" Ahmedi was noncommittal, "However, according to the data released by Hong Kong, their foreign exchange reserves including the land fund are as high as 100 billion US dollars. This figure is beyond our comparability. Moreover, if once By announcing these measures, I am afraid that investors will frantically flee their funds, which will have serious consequences."

"But what if we have enough funds?" Nanick was a little puzzled, and asked inexplicably, "The interest-free loans from the IMF and the World Bank will come again soon, as long as we have enough breathing room, wait until the time comes." If it gets better, isn’t it a success?”

  Nanik’s professional level is a bit low. The Suharto government arranged for him in this position. It didn’t intend for him to give full play to his professional knowledge, but only borrowed his indigenous identity to balance power.

"The question is, will they give us such a respite?" Susilo finally couldn't hold back, and interjected, "If the speed of our export exchange cannot keep up with the speed of dollar consumption, then our foreign exchange reserves It will decrease a little bit, which is the root of the problem and why they are targeting us."

"Not only Thailand and the Philippines, but also South Korea in the north. Their reasons are the same as ours, that is, there are problems in the internal economy, so these international hot money are targeting them. South Korea is said to have as much as 60 billion U.S. dollars. Foreign exchange, but still being captured by inside and outside, exhausted all foreign exchange reserves, had to announce depreciation. But their economic strength is very strong, although many companies are in financial crisis, but their exports are more competitive, which makes The current account of the international balance of payments has a surplus. You have also seen that after entering this year, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar has risen steadily and has entered a normal track.”

"As for Hong Kong, although its own economic foundation is not as strong as that of South Korea, it is like Singapore, a foreign trade city that relies on ports, and unlike Singapore, it can also accumulate a large amount of wealth through the development of the real estate economy. Therefore, even if International hot money has been hit several times, but the Hong Kong dollar system has not been overwhelmed.”

"In contrast to us, except for oil, other major export products have serious homogeneity. In the Philippines, Malaysia and even Brunei, what they export is almost the same as ours. Their currency value has fallen now, and their exports in the international market The price is cheaper than ours. If we don’t have an advantage, let’s not talk about being able to exchange it back into US dollars. And if we only go out but not in, I believe it will not be long before our foreign exchange reserves will be exhausted and we will enter the free floating stage again. .”

"As for oil..." Susilo smiled wryly, with a helpless expression on his face, "There will be no sign of a sharp rise in oil prices in the short term, and the price will fall due to changes in the relationship between supply and demand. At that time, we will be even worse. "

It has to be said that although Susilo's personal integrity is very average, his professionalism is indeed outstanding. In just a few sentences, he explained the causes of the currency crisis and the differences between the economic institutions of various countries (regions). Clearly.

   It's just that after he said these words, the hearts of all the people present sank in unison. Although most of them knew this well, they were still shocked when it came to the obvious.

"Don't be so pessimistic!" Seeing the mood sinking, Ahmedi naturally stood up and said a few encouraging words, "In fact, there are still merits in Nanik's suggestion, after all, what we should do is still to be done. In addition, we will contact the Bank of Japan and the Monetary Authority of Singapore to see if they can lend funds to support us in the short term. At the same time, the IMF and the World Bank, including myself, will actively Contact, hope they can disburse the next batch of loans as soon as possible."

Due to the existence of the Strait of Malacca and the identity of an oil-rich country in Asia, Japan began to invest heavily in Indonesia as early as the 1970s, building many projects including infrastructure, and these years have firmly aligned their interests with Japan's. interests are tied together.

  In addition to the demand for crude oil, in order to reduce costs in the past two years, Japanese capital has relocated factories, many of which are located in Indonesia, because the market here is almost the largest in South Asia.

  Under various circumstances, Japan’s support for the Indonesian rupiah makes sense. In fact, Japan has been intervening with Singapore to intervene in the direction of the Indonesian rupiah market until there is no problem with the South Korean won. It was only after the fire in the backyard that Japan ended this support.

   Now that South Korea has barely stabilized, Hametti naturally hopes that Japan can make another move.

   "I have another suggestion, change the current exchange rate system to a stepped fixed exchange rate system, just like South Korea, at least our pressure will be much less." Susilo finally suggested.

Hamady's eyes lit up, and after pondering for a moment, he finally nodded and said, "This is indeed a good idea. Well, I'll leave it to you, Susilo. I hope you won't let us down !"

After the trading hours in Singapore ended that day, the Indonesian side announced several measures to limit speculation. The content was nothing more than raising interest rates and restricting short-term loans. Confidence.

   Thanks to the book friends who voted for the monthly ticket!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)