Chapter 508 begins to close

  Although the price fluctuations are not large, it still caused serious losses to the Evergreen Fund, but the magnitude and speed of the losses are far less than the situation when they closed their positions on a large scale before.

   Now there are two paths before Zhongshi, which are still the previous two choices, one is to close the position, and the other is to continue to wait and see. But the current situation is different from the previous ones. There were a large number of liquidation orders in the market in the morning, and there is no doubt that the flowers are closing their positions and fleeing. But now the side of Buweihua is uncharacteristically, and no longer continues to close positions, which is a bit weird.

  Although it is not clear what exactly happened, everyone knows that even if the position is not closed, the position that does not wither will continue to lose money. What made them stop liquidating their positions, whether they had strong support, or successfully sold their positions, is unknown. So, now the question is, how to choose.

  There is uncertainty in the market.

   "What do you think?"

He frowned and thought for a long while, but Zhong Shi hesitated. He didn't know what was going on behind the scenes. Naturally, it was difficult to guess what the senior management of the Buweihua Fund was thinking, but this was not a difficult problem in front of him. It is a problem facing the entire market.

  The Never Withered Flower Fund is captured? !

   "This should be a psychological tactic that they saw the price drop sharply after the position was closed in the morning, and the loss was too serious, so they stayed put for the time being, right?"

  Jiangshan said first. The young man's mind was very bright, and he thought of a possibility at once, but he regretted slightly after blurting out the words. Even if it was a psychological tactic, the losses still existed, and traders in the market would not give up on their positions. attack, so at most this is just a tactic to delay the attack, and it can't solve the current predicament at all. And once it is discovered by the market, the Everlasting Flower Fund may suffer more violent attacks.

"This is also possible. But I think the biggest possibility is that they may have found a big player in the market who is willing to take over their position, so they can temporarily appease those investors who are chasing debt. If they close their positions at this time, it is extremely It is possible to be besieged by everyone to the point of liquidation. In this way, investors may not even get a penny, and if someone takes over, maybe they can get back a little bit. Although it will be very small, it is better than nothing. Isn't it?"

   After thinking about it for a long time, Hu Ping came to a conclusion that was more in line with the facts. However, he was very puzzled. At this moment, who would dare to take over the unfading natural gas position? Do they still think that this part of the position can make money?

  On Wall Street, as long as it is something that can make money, people will devote themselves to it. The only exception is probably things that don't make money, because here, money comes first.

  Others talked about several possibilities in a hurry, but without exception, there are only a few of these viewpoints, and more are impossible, after all, the objective facts are there.

   "Is there such a possibility that when this part of the position falls to a certain level, there will be a rebound. If it can be bought at the lowest position, it will be profitable when the time is right?"

  When they were expressing their opinions, Zhong Shi had been contemplating, and he also agreed with Hu Ping's statement, but the problem is that they would not do it if there is no benefit. After all, even if this part of the position is to be delivered, it will have to wait until March or April of the next year, which is at least half a year away from now. There are too many variables that may exist during this period, so Zhong Shi subconsciously thinks that the other party It must be a fancy to the possible profit opportunities that may exist.

   "This... we need to calculate!"

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, Hu Ping was startled for a moment. Of course, he heard that Zhong Shi was inclined to his own point of view, but the next moment he was a little confused. Naturally, it was not as far-reaching as Zhong Shi thought, so after a little pondering, he I can only answer with an attitude of trying.

Speaking of which, Hu Ping's team is not inferior to any top quantitative team in the world. In addition, they have been immersed in the natural gas market for several months, so it is still a matter of making a preliminary forecasting model. easy job.

Of course, for the market, it is impossible for any model to truly predict the future trend. These models are only calculated through the normal distribution in probability, and various variables and influencing factors are added to the model to calculate the future trend. The probability of a change at a certain point in time. Of course, the final conclusions are all numbers.

"Well, let's order people now and start building the model immediately." After hearing Hu Ping's words, Zhong Shi's brows immediately relaxed, and he ordered without saying a word, "Let's see what the other party's plan is. ?”

"But…"

Hu Ping agreed, turned around and was ready to start work, but the next moment he thought of another possibility, and said quickly: "But Mr. Zhong, if our calculations are not accurate enough, or if we miss an excellent opportunity to close the position, this responsibility…"

   "Of course I will bear it!" Zhong Shi gave Hu Ping a dissatisfied look, and said helplessly.

  At this time, Hu Ping was still thinking about his little dividend, which naturally made Zhong Shi quite dissatisfied. But this group of people is like this, greed has been deeply implanted in their bone marrow, so even if it is possible to get more benefits, they only want to ensure that they get the part first.

  After receiving Zhong Shi’s order, except for some people who continued to observe and attack positions that did not wither, everyone else devoted themselves to building a model to predict natural gas price fluctuations.

  …

  The position on the 18th finally closed at $4.94, a decrease of 0.80%. Afterwards, in the continuous turmoil, the current month's natural gas price continued to drop, and fell to varying degrees on the 19th, 20th, and 21st. By the 21st, the price of natural gas per lot was fixed at 4.78 US dollars, and then hit a new low on the 22nd. It closed at $4.63, and by this time, the September contract was not far from ending trading.

  During this period of time, the attacks on the positions of the Evergreen Fund continued to unfold. The market saw its weakness of "turning around in a big disaster" and frantically attacked natural gas contracts of various months. In the continuous attack, the price difference between the 0703 contract and the 0704 contract was narrowed to 0.94 US dollars, which was nearly 2 US dollars smaller than the most exaggerated time.

  Roughly calculated, the position of the Evergreen Fund lost nearly 6 billion US dollars in this wave of attacks, which is definitely a terrifying figure. However, what is puzzling to everyone is that despite the loss of so much money on the part of the Evergreen Fund, no more positions were sold out, except for the panic selling on the first day when the news leaked In addition, other times the market is calm, there are no so-called big orders at all, but there are a few large-scale liquidation orders appearing in the market. Naturally, some people accept them as soon as they see a good deal, but these liquidation orders can make people feel happy. There are very few transactions of flowers, as soon as they appear, they will be snatched up by many traders soon.

On Zhongshi's side, he also began to gradually close some of his positions. His position is probably the second largest in the market after the natural gas position of the Huahua Fund, so even from a security point of view, he must reduce it appropriately. partial position.

   What appeared on the market in the past two days was naturally the liquidation order issued by Zhong Shi's subordinates. After passing through dozens of accounts and throwing out close to 20,000 lots of liquidation orders one after another, other institutions seem to be aware of it, and this is why others can't wait to sell large-scale liquidation orders in the market. It's just that many traders didn't notice it at all, and they were still attacking unscrupulous positions.

  At this time, the clock stone is leaning on the bed, watching the sunset as if smoking a cigarette. The golden halo falls on the downtown/district of New York, casting layers of brilliance on the tall buildings. Looking at the busy driveway and the busy Hudson River in the distance, Zhong Shi suddenly felt a sense of irritability in his heart.

  I can’t explain why this feeling happened, but what Zhongshi can be sure of is that this whim is a harbinger of something that is bound to happen. Anxiously, he put out the cigarette butt, took a sip of water, forced himself to suppress the inexplicable impulse in his heart, and began to think carefully about the reason.

  Currently, the amount of funds in the natural gas position has reached as much as 800 million U.S. dollars, and there is at least a surplus of more than 1.2 billion U.S. dollars on the remaining books. Naturally, there is no need to worry about this part. Unless the entire U.S. natural gas pipeline explodes, I am afraid that this part of the position will be completely lost, so even if the price difference shrinks, Zhong Shi does not have to think too much about it.

  Yes, the price difference is the price difference!

   As if a flash of lightning flashed across his mind, Zhong Shi unexpectedly captured the thought at that moment, yes, it was the price difference. As of today, the price difference between 0703 and 0704 has dropped to $0.90, which is really too small.

At this moment, Hu Ping stumbled over. He was bearded, his hair was as fluffy as a bird's nest, and his eyes were bloodshot. He trotted to Zhong Shi. Only then did he throw a document in his hand in front of Zhong Shi.

"What is this?" Zhong Shi hurriedly took the document, and when he opened it again, he found that it was the forecasting model that he was required to make before. Among the calculation results.

  In this model, Hu Ping and his team took almost all influencing factors into consideration, including various data such as weather, historical natural gas price difference between two months, and position comparison between long and short sides. After putting it into an extremely complicated model and calculating it repeatedly, I came to the conclusion that even in the case of warm winter, the price difference between 0703 and 0704 contracts is at least between 1.0 and 1.45 US dollars, and the current price difference It is undervalued by 45% to 75%, so as long as it can be sustained, it is foreseeable in the future that when the price fluctuation returns to the normal track, buying this part of the position that does not wither at the current price will definitely make money.

   "Is this calculation result reliable?" Zhong Shi watched it for half an hour. He thought to himself that even if he hired some people from the quantification team, what he did was only at this level. After confirming that there were no major omissions, Zhong Shi asked subconsciously.

  Who didn't think that no one answered for a long time, Zhong Shi was very surprised, then moved the file away, only to find that at some point, Hu Ping had already fallen asleep on the sofa seat.

  …

   "Boss, it has been calculated!"

  In the headquarters in New York, almost doing the same thing as Zhong Shi, looking at the sunset in New York, an analyst in a suit and leather shoes quietly walked up to Kenneth Griffin and whispered.

  In the past three days, the Base Camp Group has invested a total of more than 40 people in manpower to calculate whether the acquisition of the natural gas position of Fuhuahua will be profitable. They fully integrated the data from the Everlasting Flower Fund into their own model system, and even every price change can generate the latest data. In this regard, although investment banks are also interested in long-lasting positions, bureaucracy and cumbersome procedures make it difficult for them to make the fastest decisions.

   "Can we make this deal?"

  Griffin bit his cigar, as if he didn't hear the analyst's words, stared blankly at the concrete forest outside the window for a long time, then chuckled and asked in a low voice.

   I hope more book friends can support this book, thank you!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)