Chapter 542 The first loss in history (6)

   "Dididi..."

When Zhong Shi and his team in Hong Kong were discussing the possible announcement of the Federal Reserve tomorrow, the BlackBerry mobile phone placed by his side suddenly rang. , an email with no name was sent to his mailbox.

   This mailbox is the mailbox for handling company affairs, and it is also a public mailbox. Although it was announced to the public, in fact, not many people know about it. Zhong Shi cursed bad luck, and when he was about to delete it, suddenly the sender's address caught his attention, and the suffix was Stanley Company.

  The finger that was about to press delete stopped, Zhong Shi looked at the address of the email playfully, then gently put the phone aside, and began to search the content of the sender's name on Google. Naturally, he basically couldn't find anything about this kind of internal emails. After a while, he closed the webpage, threw away the mouse, picked up the phone again, and thought about whether to click on it or not.

   But at this time, when he clicked on the email page again, he was shocked to find that, at some point, the email had been withdrawn by the other party. Now it was impossible to even open it. Zhong Shi gave a wry smile, realizing that the other party might have made a mistake. He put down the phone and continued to discuss with Hong Kong the possible decision of the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.

"...Because the risk of subprime mortgages has increased significantly, even the Fed's statement has deleted the word 'stable', so we judge that while the Fed is injecting funds into the market, it is also possible to take other corresponding measures to stimulate the economy , to maintain the growth of the US economy. The Fed may not have much patience in choosing the timing of interest rate cuts. In addition, this month’s housing starts and non-agricultural unemployment rate are not satisfactory, which is believed to be affected by subprime mortgages Impact. Originally we thought that in mid-August, the Fed would announce a decision to lower interest rates, but in fact they did not. So the possibility of a rate cut this month has greatly increased..."

"...Also from an inflation perspective, the previous few rate hikes by the Fed have brought forward interest rate expectations to an appropriate level, and the possibility of inflation is almost non-existent. Members' median interest rate expectations in August It has dropped from 5.75 to 5.25. Based on the fact that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on April 17, we can predict that the interest rate policy has officially entered the downward channel, although the reduction in interest rates in April is likely to be for To deal with the subprime mortgage crisis that happened at that time..."

  …

  The economists on the phone are expounding their predictions on the Fed's decision tomorrow from various aspects, and naturally most of them are arguments for lowering interest rates. But like Stanley, there is little consensus on whether the Fed will announce a rate cut at this month's policy meeting. It’s just that they didn’t quarrel for a long time before a voice rang out sharply, “Stanley’s latest forecast is that tomorrow’s FOMC meeting will announce a rate cut, and the rate cut may be relatively large, between 50 basis points and 75 basis points.”

  Before each Fed meeting, economists from various investment banks will publish an outlook, predicting the measures the Fed may take and their impact on the market. Of course, these opinions are only a dispensable reference for the economists of Tianyu Fund. After all, their academic level and judgment ability are not inferior to these economists working in investment banks.

   But this time the situation is different. Although Stanley has released a similar report before, it is extremely cautious in terms of wording. It only said that it will conduct a detailed analysis as soon as the FOMC meeting decision is announced. And the underlying meaning behind these words is that we don't know what will happen, what we can tell you is that we will interpret to you what they posted, but if we want to give you accurate predictions, we can only Yes no comment.

   But now, uncharacteristically, clients are even told how much the Fed might cut rates. As the saying goes, if something abnormal happens, it will be a monster. If there is no inside story behind it, then there is a consensus within Stanley that the Fed's interest rate cut is imperative.

   "If interest rates are lowered, what impact will it have on subprime mortgage loans and related derivatives?" After frowning and thinking for a while, Zhong Shi really asked the debt expert on the other end of the phone.

  Reducing interest rates is generally a good thing for the capital market. Whether it is cutting interest rates or raising interest rates, it is the total amount of liquidity that is controlled. Different from the destructive reserve ratio adjustment, the adjustment of interest rate has more room for flexibility. Therefore, when economic activities do not fluctuate sharply, the central bank is more inclined to use the tool of adjusting interest rate.

"If interest rates are lowered, it will challenge both short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates. When short-term interest rates fall, bond yields will inevitably fall, and prices will rise accordingly, which seems to be a strong support for bonds themselves. As for long-term interest rates It is said that the expectation that the forward interest rate will fall will also make capital more willing to hold long-term treasury bonds and other investment products, which will help the US government expand its debt scale and raise more funds to invest in economic activities. This is undoubtedly Inject a booster into the economic downturn, but whether it can really curb the economic downturn depends on the game of the market. It’s hard to say at the moment, if the economic data continues to decline, I don’t rule out the possibility of them further cutting interest rates.”

"It may boost confidence in the bond market in the short term, but in the long run, fundamentals still determine supply and demand. Regarding the subprime mortgage market, I personally think it is unlikely to change. People who currently stop supplying home loans There are too many, and the national housing price index has fallen for six consecutive months. I believe this fact is enough for most new buyers to choose to wait and see. After all, the crisis has not been completely resolved. As for the derivatives market, I personally think that it may Liquidity has improved, but after all, the root cause continues to deteriorate, and it is not ruled out that the market will continue to slide and collapse.”

  A bond expert named Su He talked endlessly, and finally gave a relatively pessimistic forecast.

"Okay, since this is the case, let's continue to observe!" After fully discussing the situation in various aspects, Zhong Shi realized that it should be late at night in Hong Kong. After such intense brain activity, these people have long been Exhausted. So after he listened to the opinion, he planned to end the conference call immediately so that they could have a rest earlier.

"One more thing, boss!" Just when everyone was about to press the microphone to end, Zhang Hua said inappropriately, "I just received an email from the risk department of Stanley Company, but the content of the email is If it was sent to Prince Feisal, they obviously sent it to the wrong address. God, how could they make such a low-level mistake!"

  Amidst the laughter, the red lights on the conference machine dimmed one by one. Obviously, most people didn't take it seriously, it was just a low-level mistake. Zhong Shi also turned off the phone with a smile, but his face darkened the next moment, and he realized that this was absolutely impossible to be a low-level mistake!

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  (end of this chapter)