Chapter 577 Instructing Huatou

  As the saying goes, no coincidence makes a book, just at the time when Zhongshi was released on the last day of the trial, it happened that people from Huatou were discussing the current financial market conditions enthusiastically.

  Since taking a stake in Stanley last year to now, Huatou's research department has been paying close attention to the deterioration of the US subprime bond market and its chain reaction to other markets.

In just three months, many things happened around the world around the subprime bonds, including the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points on January 22, and New York insurance regulators provided $15 billion in financial assistance to bond insurers Many bailout measures, such as the financial and central bank governors of the seven countries concerned about the subprime loan crisis, and the nationalization of Northern Rock Bank in the United Kingdom, have a major decision made public almost every week.

The crisis caused by subprime housing mortgage bonds has intensified and has affected all aspects of economic life so far. At first it was the real estate market, then the mortgage system, followed by intermediaries and insurance companies, and with the storm As it continues, there is still a long list of names that will be involved.

At present, the central banks of various countries are doing nothing more than two things: the first is to release liquidity to the market by cutting interest rates and injecting cash to ease the pressure on the global money market; "Stricter supervision will be carried out to prevent similar things from happening again. But no matter how it is done, it is an after-the-fact compensation, and it will not help the losses that have already been caused.

On February 29th, the Federal Reserve launched a proposal to prevent new regulations on high-risk mortgage bonds; on March 13th, the US official made the first prediction of a possible "recession"; and just today, on the 17th, the commercial bank The rediscount window cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The announcement of these news to some extent stimulated the stock market not to fall sharply today, offsetting the bad news brought about by the acquisition of Bear Stearns.

In response to these news, the researchers of Huatou divided their views into two completely different factions. One of the views is that after the central banks of the United States and the world realized the subprime bond crisis and took timely measures, although the global market is still "sorrowful". , but now is a good opportunity to buy the bottom. If you wait until the rescue policies of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank of various countries come into effect, the market will reverse, and the possibility of buying high-quality assets at a cheap price will be small. The other group of views is just the opposite. They believe that the power and destructive power of the subprime bond bomb has not yet been demonstrated, and the market is far from reaching the bottom. Therefore, it is very possible to buy bottom at this time Copying it halfway up the mountain, it is very likely to "lose the wife and lose the army" in the end.

  Apparently, the focus of the debate between the two parties is on the macroscopic aspects of the U.S. and even the world economy, but in essence, this issue has also been transformed into the selection of the timing of the purchase of high-quality assets in the U.S. capital market. In fact, China Investment has reached a consensus to buy Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stocks or bonds, and now the discussion is about the purchase time and price.

  During the debate, both sides cited Bear Stearns as an example to support their point of view. One side said that Bear Stearns was a victim of subprime bonds. Such a well-known investment bank could not escape the risk of being acquired, let alone other institutions that had not yet revealed a crisis. The other party retorted, saying that if Huatou could make a bold move and resolutely invest in Bear Stearns before then, Bear Stearns might not fall into the hands of the government. There is no doubt that Bear Stearns' assets and Employees are a valuable asset, as long as time passes, these things can be transformed into long-term growth and stable income, so this just shows that we missed a great opportunity to buy the bottom.

Naturally, neither of the two parties could convince the other. In the process of arguing, someone suddenly saw the news on TV that Zhongshi shorted Bear Stearns more than a year ago. This news stunned both parties in the debate. Not a word came out.

Naturally, they would not doubt the authenticity of these news. In fact, even when Bear Stearns was blooming, there were many bearish remarks on them in the market, but not many institutions dared to short Bear Stearns at that time. Deng, perhaps dare to short for such a long time. Because the financial market is changing rapidly, the market may reverse completely in the next moment. Under such circumstances, those who can short Bear Stearns for a long time are either crazy or really have great wisdom. Obviously, no matter how you look at it, Zhong Shi doesn't look like a crazy person.

Gao Dongfang, who presided over the meeting, was also troubled by the continuous quarrels between the two sides. Before that, the two large-scale investments in Beryl Rock and Stanley did not get the expected high returns, which caused him and his team to be affected by domestic public opinion. The unanimous accusation, therefore bears enormous pressure. This also caused him and his team to hesitate to make a move under the current situation of intensified subprime bonds.

Today's routine meeting is his last meeting before returning to China. After this meeting, he will fly back to China to give a suitable investment report to the board of directors of Huatou. So far, his team still has not done anything Reaching a consensus made him even more anxious.

  After the news about Zhong Shi was broadcast on TV, he thought: If he is not at peace with himself, why not ask this gentleman to come over and give some advice? Not to mention that the news about Zhong Shi shocked these researchers just now, just talking about his performance in Hong Kong in 1998 and the relationship with that paper is enough to make these people worship him.

  Of course, it would be better if Zhong Shi could give more specific opinions on this issue. Thinking so, Gao Dongfang quickly dialed the other party's phone number and enthusiastically invited the other party to come here to "sit for a while".

Since they are all in New York, the distance between them is not too far. Half an hour later, Zhong Shi's figure appeared in the conference room on this floor contracted by Huatou. When the meeting room was carefully arranged, there was a burst of warm applause in the meeting room.

This meeting room has obviously been re-arranged. The walls are hung with traditional Chinese landscape paintings. At the end of the room is a screen with gorgeous peony paintings. Each seat is also an antique rattan wood seat. , and there are even white porcelain teacups on the mahogany round table, without any western-style decorations. I think the management of this hotel also took great pains.

"Okay, okay, please don't applaud first." Gao Dongfang smiled all over his face, waved his hands towards the crowd, walked quickly a few steps, held Zhong Shi's hands tightly, and after exchanging a few greetings, he shouted to everyone. He introduced, "Gentlemen, this is the distinguished guest we invited today, Mr. Zhong Shi. You already know the other things, so I won't say much."

   Another burst of warm applause.

"What's the situation?" Smiling and shaking his hands at a group of people standing up, Zhong Shi walked to the main stage of the round mahogany conference table, sat down beside Gao Dongfang, and asked in a low voice, "It seems that you are holding an internal meeting, is it appropriate for me to visit now?"

"It's suitable, of course it's suitable!" Gao Dongfang touched the tip of his nose and waved his palms downward, and immediately everyone sat back in their seats, "Actually, Mr. Zhong, I invite you here this time to ask you Some comments."

  Zhong Shi nodded and didn't say much. Before coming, he had already thought of several possibilities, and this "comment request" was one of them.

"That's right, Mr. Chung, before you came we were discussing the issue of subprime housing mortgage bonds, that is, how long will the deterioration of the market continue under the current rescue efforts, or whether the crisis has already begun It's under control." A well-dressed analyst stood up and briefly introduced everything they had just said before introducing himself, "I'm Chu Nanxing, a macro strategy analyst at Huatou."

"Subprime bond crisis?" Zhong Shi showed a playful smile at the corner of his mouth, glanced at the other party meaningfully, and then said slowly, "Actually, I don't do much research on the macro aspect, so I don't know what to do. answer your question."

  Hearing the dodging meaning in Zhong Shi's words, Chu Nanxing unabashedly showed disappointment, and sat down resentfully. Although the other analysts didn't say anything, there were not a few who had the same reaction as Chu Nanxing.

"Actually, I invited Mr. Zhong here this time to ask you to evaluate a possible transaction we have. What they said are actually marginal issues." Seeing that the scene was about to cool down, Gao Dongfang said in good time. Stand up and explain, "Because this business involves whether the current market timing is appropriate, our analysts want to ask you about the macroeconomic view first."

Zhong Shi tilted his head and looked at Gao Dongfang for a while, and after confirming that the other party would not continue, he said lightly: "Sorry, Mr. Gao, I still can't say anything. You also know that if the target is different, the analysis method will be different. It’s quite different. It’s like you can’t analyze bonds in the same way you analyze stocks, and you can’t operate options in the same way you operate futures. You should know these simple truths better than me.”

In fact, Zhong Shi is talking nonsense with his eyes open, because Huatou Fund is a sovereign fund, and it is impossible to operate like retail investors or hedge funds. The only investment method similar to them is mutual funds, but sovereign funds are more important than public funds. Be patient and hold for a longer period. Therefore, there are not many targets that they can invest in, and they are nothing more than a few varieties that can be held for a long time, such as stocks and bonds.

Seeing that Zhong Shi said "If you don't see rabbits, you won't scatter eagles", Gao Dongfang sighed imperceptibly, knowing that it would be impossible for him not to reveal the specific situation, he shook his head helplessly and said, "Mr. The focus is on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two giant mortgage companies in the United States. Both the stock price and the profit of these two giant mortgage companies have fallen due to the subprime debt crisis. After the company's financial situation, we think they have long-term investment value. But the trouble now is that we can't be sure whether the securities prices of these two companies have reached the bottom according to the current economic situation."

"So the purpose of asking macro is to let me predict the stock prices of these two companies or other securities prices?" Zhong Shi was speechless to this answer, daring the other party to regard himself as a "magic stick" who could predict the future. Refusing to say, "Sorry, Mr. Gao, I really can't answer your question. If I can predict, the funds of Tianyu Fund will probably enter the market."

"But Mr. Zhong, you successfully predicted today's situation in the Bear Stearns incident, and the time span lasted as long as a year!" An analyst with a mustache at the corner of his mouth quickly stood up , said anxiously, "We are not asking you to predict anything, but based on your current judgment on this crisis, how long do you and your colleagues think it will last? Are you unwilling to disclose this bit of opinion? "

"This is Su Zhan, an industry analyst." Gao Dongfang quickly introduced, and then his face sank, and he said, "Su Zhan, why are you yelling, are you so rude? Mr. Zhong It’s our VIP, and we can’t even invite you here. Also, don’t you know that in 1998, Mr. Chung assisted the Hong Kong government in guarding the Hong Kong capital market? Mr. Chung is a well-known patriot, how could he be there at this time? what to keep?"

  His remarks seemed to be reprimanding Su Zhan, but in fact he threw the problem to Zhong Shi, and even used his patriotic righteousness to suppress Zhong Shi.

Zhong Shi was naturally aware of his implication, touched the tip of his nose in embarrassment, shook his head helplessly, and said with a wry smile: "Mr. The current sub-prime bond crisis has been studied. According to our research, this crisis is far from reaching its peak. Although the governments and central banks of various countries are actively helping the market, the scale of the market and the corresponding derivatives The market size is too large, and because of the herd effect, so far we think that the rescue of various countries is still a drop in the bucket. If you must ask my opinion, I can only tell you that it is best to wait and see .”

  Although the words were vague, Zhong Shi sincerely and frankly stated the internal conclusions of Tianyu Fund without any reservations.

  Gao Dongfang's eyes flickered, and he didn't know what he was thinking. The other analysts did not speak, and the entire meeting room fell into an extremely awkward atmosphere for a while.

   "Are you planning to buy the bonds of Freddie and Freddie?" Seeing that the atmosphere was a bit dull, Zhong Shi took the initiative to ask.

   "Well, what?" Gao Dongfang turned his head and glanced at Zhong Shi in confusion, then remembered something, and said repeatedly, "Yes! Yes! It's bonds!"

   Thanks to book friend Zhuang Zhou Fengshen for voting for the monthly ticket! Sorry to be a bit late today, seeing everyone's enthusiastic support, the author is also going to work hard to write more, thank you!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)