Chapter 624 Speculation of fate

Regarding the private deal between Blankfein and Lewis, Dick Fodder was completely kept in the dark. He is still carefully preparing for the deal with the Bank of America. After all, Paulson personally helped him get this deal. of. How did he know that the outcome of the negotiation between Raymond Brothers and Bank of America was already doomed.

  Because it was a private transaction and not very ethical, both Blankfein and Lewis chose to keep their mouths shut, so even the most powerful figures on Wall Street did not know what happened behind it. At most they knew that Paulson was brokering the acquisition of Lehman Brothers by Bank of America.

  Soros is such a man with great powers.

"Apart from Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch's financial situation is not very good. Their CEO Sean has been traveling around frequently recently, trying to find funds in the market." John Paulson said lightly, "They also encountered Trouble. But now it seems that it is not as serious as Leimen Brothers, but if Leimen Brothers fall, I am afraid that the focus of the market will soon turn to them."

This is the weekly strategy meeting of the "Soros Group". The main content of the discussion is to summarize various news related to their short-selling targets in the market over the past week, find useful news or clues from them, and then formulate corresponding strategies based on these things. Strategy.

  In addition to Lehman Brothers, the short-selling targets of the "Soros Group" have expanded to Merrill Lynch, Stanley, and Goodman. The current position is as high as 5 billion US dollars, including the most famous investment banks on Wall Street.

   I have to say that this is a crazy plan, because this move has offended almost all the investment banks on Wall Street, and these short sellers are more or less related to these institutions. Therefore, during the entire short-selling process, both Soros and Paulson and others kept it strictly confidential and did not disclose any information to the outside world.

The reason for not increasing the share of short selling is because according to their estimates, the US$5 billion is scattered among four companies, each of which is around US$1.2 billion. This kind of short selling is not likely to cause the other party’s attention during the slow sell-off. Notice. We must know that the market is now in a stage of turmoil. The management of many companies is watching their own company's stocks day and night, for fear of being targeted by short sellers and becoming the next Thunder Brothers.

Compared with the high-profile style of David Einhorn and others, Soros and others are the real predators in the market: they are like the most brilliant assassins, quietly hiding in unknown corners, just in all When everyone forgets about them, these "assassins" give each other a fatal blow at the most paralyzed moment, as fast as lightning, as fast as a fright, and then go away quietly, hiding their achievements and fame, leaving only speculation.

"Don't worry about Merrill Lynch for now, the issue of Raymond Brothers is getting a bit tricky." Kenneth Griffin said anxiously, "Now the stock price of Raymond Brothers has fallen below $10, according to our previous position, Now at least over $2 billion in profit. The question is, if Bank of America gets involved and the acquisition is successful, where is the stock price expected to be? Should we close the position now, or wait until the acquisition is successful and give back some of it Profits come out?"

   There was silence, no one answered his question, because no one knew the answer.

"We don't know exactly how much Lehman Brothers' toxic assets are. According to Einhorn, this part of the assets has not been reported to the balance sheet in a timely manner according to the market valuation. This is a very big hidden danger. Griffin waited for a long time, saw no one spoke, so he could only continue, "Now they are the only ones who know the real financial situation, but it is absolutely impossible to expect them to disclose the real situation. Maybe we can wait until they disclose the third quarter financial situation." The day of the report, but I estimate that if that day comes, the stock price of Raymond Brothers will not even reach 5 dollars."

   "It is necessary to make a conclusion before the third quarter, because Bank of America may succeed in the acquisition at any time. If the two parties reach this deal, we will have no time to wait for the third quarter financial report of Lehman Brothers."

  Finally, Griffin said firmly.

   "Are you sure the message is true?"

   After another long silence, Julian Robertson couldn't help asking, "George, is it true that Secretary Paulson ordered Bank of America to acquire Raymond Brothers?"

  Because this matter is of great importance, Julian Robertson must be determined again. Generally speaking, it is difficult for Wall Street to disobey the will of the Minister of Finance, but the scale is controlled by Wall Street itself. If the order from Washington is a very tactful persuasion, Wall Street may not necessarily buy it. But if the tone is harsh and clear intent, then Wall Street will have to weigh the words with weight. Of course, for senior officials who are about to resign or leave their posts, no matter how harsh the tone is, the effect may not be very good.

  The current President of the United States will step down in January next year, and Treasury Secretary Paulson and others will also step down along with him. But at this time, no one dares to follow Secretary Paulson's words, because the entire Wall Street needs liquidity support, whether it is insurance, investment banks, or commercial banks, the larger the institution, the more liquidity it needs. more sex. So from this point of view, it is very difficult for the management of Bank of America to go against Secretary Paulson's will.

   But from another perspective, Bank of America’s operating conditions are improving day by day, and even the second quarter’s report has turned into a profit. From this perspective, at least Bank of America’s urgent need for liquidity will not be as serious as outsiders imagined. But once the Lehman Brothers are acquired, how to deal with their assets, Bank of America may have to spend a lot of cash to solve this problem.

   There is also the related issue that Bank of America may come under intense pressure from shareholders and analysts if it does not respond aggressively as its competitors scramble to beef up their investment banking business.

  The above factors are combined together, Soros and others have no way to predict what will be the result behind this transaction. So whether it is Soros, Robertson, or John Paulson, they are all confused and perplexed by the current situation.

  As Zhongshi predicted, the market was divided into two factions because of Bear Stearns' experience, and Soros's small circle was no exception. Of course, they can keep shorting until finally Raymond Brothers is acquired or goes bankrupt. But the problem is that if they close their positions now, they will get more than $2 billion, and if they continue to short and go bankrupt, they may get a profit of $3 billion or more.

  The gap of 1 billion US dollars is definitely not a small number.

"According to reliable information, Leimen Brothers is seeking internal reorganization!" Soros, who had been silent all this time, finally spoke, and the first sentence he said made everyone's expressions change, "What is not sure yet is that this What exactly is the restructuring plan. But what is certain is that they will definitely do everything possible to find a way to get rid of the burden of toxic assets!"

"If they can really divest this part of the assets, I believe other assets are quite considerable." Soros continued unhurriedly, "I am afraid that the institutions that want to acquire will line up at the door. That is, $10 per share may not satisfy their appetite.”

"Fortunately, these are just unconfirmed news. I personally estimate that if Leimen Brothers really has such a plan inside, they will definitely throw it out at the most critical time, such as the announcement of the third quarter financial statement. That day." Soros' tone became more and more serious, but then he changed the topic and became more relaxed and cheerful, "But please rest assured, we are not so eager to make a decision now. Don't forget, there is another person More anxious than us!"

"Who?"

Joseph Lewis was the most impatient, and blurted out the question, but he quickly realized, "You mean Zhong? This is really possible, after all, his position is much larger than ours. If he doesn't make a move now, then we There is really no need to worry.”

   In the final analysis, Soros learned about this huge plan to short Wall Street investment banks from Tianyu Fund. Although the method is a bit immoral, no one cares about the means in the face of real profits.

"That's right, it's him!" Soros suddenly became confident, "If we say that the most anxious person right now is probably this gentleman. As long as we keep an eye on the market, we will see whether the stock of Raymond Brothers will go down in the near future. If there is a large amount of buying, we will know whether someone is closing the position. Although our strategy is a little passive, it is also our advantage. As long as we follow him, we can still play against the other party at critical times! "

"Is it really appropriate for you to bring emotions and personal grievances into the transaction like this?" John Paulson was a little dissatisfied, "George, our goal is to obtain the maximum benefit. But according to your strategy, we are completely following suit, Following others, it is completely against our original intention. We are no longer participants in the game, but just an existence that entrusts our destiny to others, which makes me feel very bad."

"John, you must understand that we are not in charge of this market now!" Soros sighed and patiently enlightened John Paulson, "In other words, in the stock market of Raymond Brothers, we Not those who have the right to speak. If anyone in the market can bring Raymond Brothers back to life at this time, I am afraid that only a few people in the world can do it. Henry Paulson and Bernanke must be one Well, Bank of America may count as one, and other people who are interested in Leimen Brothers can also count as one. And Zhongshi, definitely counts as one, because this guy has tens of billions in cash."

"Although it is certain that this guy will not easily get involved in the acquisition of Leimen Brothers, short selling or liquidation will directly affect the stock price performance of Leimen Brothers." Speaking of this, Soros was a little bit discouraged. "So we can't help ourselves. But it's good, so we don't have to make our own decisions."

  In fact, Soros was also a little unconfident at this time, because he couldn't figure out what the senior government officials were thinking. After Russia was played by the US government in 1998, he realized that he was just a **** of the opponent. As good as it felt to be taken advantage of, he had to accept that it was the truth. And the reason why he tied himself with Zhong Shi now is that he wanted to test how Zhong Shi, an "outsider", guessed and judged the current true intentions of the US government.

  He believes that Zhong Shi must also know all this that is currently circulating in the market.

   This is the true intention of his heart, and he didn't tell others etc. After hearing what he said just now, the others were all silent for a while. Originally, they were "same bed with different dreams" because of whether to close the position or continue to short, but now Soros proposed a solution that just solved the problem, although this solution made everyone feel uncomfortable.

  …

   Zhong Shi, who was far away in Hong Kong, sneezed several times in a row before finally stopping the chill on his body. He wrapped the windbreaker tightly around his body and strode into the office building.

"Xiao Jiang, take care of the work at hand, and go to New York with me next week." Zhong Shi, who had just sat down, felt the warmth in the room and felt a lot more comfortable, then pressed the call button on the phone, Said to Jiangshan.

"Third quarter financial statement release of Leimen Brothers?" Jiang Shan immediately came to his senses. He knew that Leimen Brothers was finally going to the most critical time. Set off."

   "Yes!" Zhong Shi was very satisfied with Jiangshan's efficiency, "The final answer is about to be revealed."

   PS: Are stock speculators satisfied with the performance of A shares today? The country is making great efforts to rescue the market. As soon as the market opens in the morning, I don’t know how many short positions in IF300 will explode~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)