Chapter 645 Backtracking

   "This guy does have a trick, and he guessed it right. It's lucky!"

  Beside the conference call, Soros gave a rare compliment to Zhong Shi, because Leimen Brothers declared bankruptcy, which made him feel good, and even put aside the old grudge between the two.

   Regarding the judgment of the final fate of the Lehman Brothers, Wall Street institutions are clearly divided into two types. One is the government's support; the other is to let it go bankrupt. As a result, short/long positions against Raymond Brothers were in full swing, and some institutions even bet most of their fortunes.

  Soros naturally belongs to the category of people who won the bet. Including short options, CDS, related party transactions and direct stock shorting, the teams of Soros and John Paulson have earned at least five billion dollars in profits. Although there was some profit-taking at Merrill Lynch, this performance has satisfied everyone on the team.

"What is good luck? I don't believe in the idea of ​​good luck. Well, I have to say that this guy is good at the macro and company finances." Joseph Lewis curled his lips and said carelessly, still revealing a dissatisfaction in his tone. Convinced, "If this guy comes to play foreign exchange, he may not be my opponent, hehe."

  As a super rich man who started from foreign exchange, Joseph Lewis has his own unique set of international macroeconomics and high-level resolutions. Although he brags about his strengths, several other people don't think that Zhongshi will be weaker than him in foreign exchange, because Zhongshi participated in the sterling crisis in 1992.

   "Okay, let's discuss the next possible target!"

John Paulson couldn't stand it any longer. Among the people in the meeting, he had the most contact with Zhong Shi and the deepest understanding. Among other things, his share in the Paulson Fund is enough Let Paulson admire Zhongshi so much, not to mention that the other party has done so many things recently.

"Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the market's confidence in financial institutions dropped sharply, and the stock prices of large institutions fell one after another. This is the situation we are facing." Paulson said bewitchingly, "If the next big institution goes bankrupt, our chances will be reduced." Here we go again, gentlemen, this is a great opportunity for us in a turbulent market."

   "So according to your opinion, where is the next opportunity?" Julian Robertson, who had been silent all this time, asked.

  In this loose team, the core is barely George Soros, and those who are relatively close to him are Julian Robertson, Joseph Lewis and others. Currently, John Paulson is the most popular. He and Kenneth Griffin are relatively close, and they are representatives of the new forces of hedge funds.

  Julian Robertson asked this question, maybe he did not pay attention to the meaning of the other party. Since the other party is so famous, he must have some real talents. The market doesn't believe in luck, and neither does Julian Robertson. If you can get a little bit of ideas from the other party's mouth, it might be a kind of compensation for your own operation, especially for such a top person.

"AIG, the American International Group, is the next target!" Paulson seemed unaware of the other party's temptation, and directly said what he thought, "Stanley and Goodman have a high probability of becoming the target of the market, but at present The looming issue is still AIG, their problems have been brewing for a long time, and this time they are hit by the bankruptcy of Raymond Brothers, and it is very likely that they will declare bankruptcy or be taken over one day in the future. So we have to hurry because we are not sure Whether it's tomorrow or next week or next month, but for sure they're in trouble, big trouble."

"But according to what you said, why didn't I continue to work on Stanley and Goodman?" This time it was Jim Chanos who spoke. As a man who was silent most of the time, Chanos said every word Every sentence is incisive and convincing, not only because of his neutral position, but also because of his status as a top short seller.

   As one of the top short sellers in the market, Chanos was even invited by Lehman Brothers to dispel market rumors. Although he did not make the trip in the end, it can be seen from this that he has influence on the market.

"Of course we should continue to short Stanley and Goodman." Paulson shook his head slightly, "It's just that Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke have shown their determination not to intervene in the market so far. This is how the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. If you continue to operate in this way, the stock prices of Stanley and Goodman will fall sooner or later. As for whether they will go bankrupt in the end, it depends on the development of the matter. As far as AIG is concerned, on the one hand, the insurance market has collapsed, and on the other hand, they have suffered from a crisis far greater than the other two institutions. At least so far, I have not heard of the crisis of Goodman and Stanley. , and AIG has been in trouble for a long time, and it is basically impossible to raise more funds with their asset scale. So we should hurry up on this.”

   "He's right!"

At this moment, Soros also spoke, "Gentlemen, maybe you don't know that the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve also planned to rescue the Raymond Brothers, but for some reason, they did not reach an agreement in the end. It is said that the British side appeared Problem. My sources didn’t tell me exactly what was going on, but what is certain is that the Treasury and the Fed wanted to solve the illiquidity problem of a certain consortium by raising funds from a large consortium.”

"I believe you are also wondering about the government's sudden establishment of a $100 billion stabilization fund. Yes, part of the funds come from Wall Street. Of course, so far, this fund has not been established, but this can be seen as the government's Their protection. Now, according to my information, there is an order from Washington to bring these Wall Street giants together again. It is not clear why, but it is probably for AIG."

   "Gentlemen, I just received the news. If possible, sell AIG's CDS or buy call options now, maybe tomorrow AIG's fate will be reversed."

  Hearing the news, the others looked at each other in blank dismay and were speechless for a while. Among them were admiration for John Paulson's precise judgment and dissatisfaction with Soros for not revealing the news until now. Obviously, this team can't last long.

  …

   "Okay, let's see how we're doing?"

The office of the Reserve Bank of New York, the office where Henry Paulson announced not to save Lehman Brothers three days ago, is still the CEOs of Wall Street, except that Merrill Lynch and Bank of America are missing. When the CEOs are discussing enthusiastically, Fed Vice Chairman Geithner walked in quietly.

   After the bankruptcy of Raymond Brothers, the plan to rescue AIG was immediately put on the agenda. This time Henry. Paulson and his colleagues still do not intend to let the government take action, trying to do the same to save AIG.

"We can't raise enough funds!" Goodman's CEO Blankfein shook his head with a wry smile, "Even if we won 79.9% of their warrants at a price of US$50 billion, we still can't raise enough funds. "

Because AIG's issues were previously reviewed by groups such as China Securities Regulatory Commission and Citigroup, it was easy for the consortium to obtain first-hand data, and the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance also made concessions to them, offering 500 100 million US dollars to win 79.9% of their warrants, which is equivalent to giving away about 40% of AIG's shares. This price is almost punitive.

  But the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance can no longer take care of it. Now the key is to save AIG, and it doesn't matter how much equity is given away.

   But even such a favorable condition was still denied by the consortium, and Geithner suddenly felt angry.

"So far, there is no possibility of a deal!" Blankfein obviously noticed Geithner's face, but he could do nothing about it, "We have already settled all the materials. If AIG wants to continue operating, it needs at least 80 billion yuan. $90 billion in funding and we’re only able to raise $50 billion, that’s the most optimistic scenario. So, what about the remaining $30 billion to $40 billion? Sorry there’s nothing we can do!”

   "Are you trying to shirk responsibility?" Geithner's expression was already distorted, and now he only needs one ignition point, and he might explode immediately.

   In his view, this is another threat from these CEOs. Bank of America has done this before, Barclays Bank has done this, and these people have done it too. These people, including Paulson, have put up with it, and now they want to repeat the old tricks. How can this be tolerated?

"Calm down, Mr. Vice Chairman." Amidst the chilling silence, Blankfein handed Geithner a piece of paper, "This is about AIG's related transactions. Simply put, if AIG really goes bankrupt, the people on these lists will Companies will all suffer huge losses, and the ranking is based on the amount of possible losses."

   Geithner gave the other party a dissatisfied look, but still took the paper, "ABN Amro, Credit Suisse, UBS, Goodman, Citigroup, Stanley..."

"Our institutions here are all among them!" Blankfein looked solemn, feeling helpless and distressed, "If we say that we don't plan to save AIG, it means that we are watching our company suffer huge losses. Clearly illogical. Mr. Vice Chairman, we desperately want to save AIG more than anyone else in the market, and we can't do it anymore."

   "AIG screwed up and they're done with it?"

   Geithner's face sank like water, and he didn't express his position for a long time. When he looked up at these CEOs, he was surprised to find that many of them had wry smiles on their faces, and most of them shook their heads and sighed, which obviously couldn't be faked.

  Since they can't figure it out, it seems that they can only implement the second plan. As with Lehman Brothers, the Treasury and the Fed had a second plan for AIG.

   "Okay, here's what we're going to do next!"

   After five minutes, Geithner finally made up his mind and waved to the outside. Two men in black came in, each holding a buckle bucket in their hands, and stood on both sides of the conference table.

"I want everyone to hand over their mobile phones and other communication tools. From now on, I don't want anyone to communicate with the outside world, including your company, your family, your driver, your friends, everyone outside Don't contact me at all. I think you should understand what I mean? Gentlemen, this place is temporarily guarded."

  Amidst the stunned, there was a sputtering sound. Although what Geithner said was "hope" and not force, who would dare to stand up and say "no" at this moment? Before long, the communication tools of the CEOs were collected in the Lock Bucket.

  Everyone complied with this regulation, and Geithner was very satisfied, and then he said something that shocked everyone,

   “What would happen if the Fed took care of this?”

  The Fed wants to take action? Could it be that Paulson and Bernanke have changed their minds? But the outside world has been praising the government for its non-intervention. Why has the whole situation been completely reversed in the past 72 hours? Isn't this contradictory?

   Even though they have seen more storms and waves, these CEOs on Wall Street have not figured out what is going on?

   Thanks to book friend Shihuangtian, for making me think, Huang Tianlong, I am little dust, cpower, Zhou Shao voted for the monthly ticket! I've been a little dizzy lately, and I don't feel like my writing is very good, please forgive me... the author will continue to work hard...

  

  

  (end of this chapter)