Chapter 688 Big Liar

   "What about U.S. debt?"

  The first thing Zhong Shi did when he returned to Hong Kong was to ask about long-term U.S. treasury bonds. Before he went to Germany, the economists and researchers of Tianyu Fund had already focused their attention on the long-term treasury bond market.

  In fact, in the current chaotic market, the safest way to invest is naturally the treasury bond market. Because the business environment and repayment ability of enterprises have been widely questioned, the corporate bond market has also begun to fluctuate violently, which makes the corporate bond market no longer a safe haven.

  At this time, only national credit is the most trustworthy.

   Among many countries, the credit of countries like the United States, Germany, and Japan is undoubtedly the first level, and other industrial powers are regarded as the second level. However, due to factors such as currency and economic policies, the BRIC countries in emerging markets, including China, are far less convincing than the United States in terms of trust.

"The one-year benchmark interest rate in the United States has dropped to 1.5%, and at the same time, a rescue plan with a total amount of 850 billion U.S. dollars has been announced." Jiang Shan said expressionlessly, "In addition to these, the United States has also raised the upper limit of deposit insurance to 1.5%. US$250,000 to support commercial banks, while also implementing tax cuts to stimulate the economy, the market responded well. The short-term US Treasury market has seen prices fall and yields rise. But in long-term Treasury bonds, yields are far from reaching market expectations."

   "What is the market's expectation? What's the reason?" Zhong Shi frowned, and then asked.

"Even when the Federal Reserve's financial explosion occurs, the yield on the ten-year treasury bond will not be lower than 5%, and the general expectation is 7%. So generally speaking, when the yield does not meet expectations, we take The strategy is to sell bonds short, wait until yields rise, and then close out the position, earning the difference.”

Jiang Shan said calmly, "These are all from senior economists and bond analysts. They took into account the influx of safe-haven funds and concluded that the yield of ten-year government bonds should be 4.9% and 5.5%. However, the current market yield is only 4%, which is far lower than our expectations, and there is a lot of room for maneuver.”

   "Is there much room for maneuver?"

  Zhong Shi tilted his head and thought for a while, before asking suspiciously: "Presumably, you have already made strategic preparations before notifying me of this matter, even the funds and leverage?"

Jiang Shan, who was stunned by Zhong Shi, smiled shyly, and said embarrassedly: "The opportunity is rare, and we have indeed made sufficient preparations. In addition to using the funds from the headquarters, I also applied to the risk control department for additional funds of 3 billion U.S. dollars. There is a total of $6 billion in funds. We have also talked to the brokerage channel about leverage, and they provide twice the leverage. If you can agree, we can open a short position with a size of more than $15 billion at any time.”

   "A $15 billion position is big enough!"

  Zhong Shi tapped on the tea table and pondered for a while, "Let's put this matter on hold for now. Although the scale is not very large, I am not very optimistic about the prospects of this transaction, and we need to continue to observe and observe!"

   "What's the reason?"

  One advantage of flat management is that any employee has the opportunity to communicate with the senior management, put forward their own opinions and suggestions at any time, and can also ask the senior management to explain certain behaviors. Tianyu Fund is exactly this kind of management model, so even if Zhong Shi denies the deal, Jiang Shan still has to ask for a reason to convince him.

"Although your analysis is very reasonable, you may have overlooked one issue, that is, the determination of the US government to rescue the market. So far, although various actions have shown that the US government is determined to rescue the market, but the change of term is approaching, and after the new president takes office Whether you have any reservations about the predecessor's measures is unknown. Also, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in Europe will directly affect the size of global safe-haven funds. You completely lack data support for these things. In addition, in terms of foreign exchange, the new You have not considered whether the previous government will fight currency wars with other major trading countries. In this case, it is too risky to build a bond position of up to tens of billions of dollars. I don't think we are worth it. take such a risk."

   "Then when do you think is the right time?" Jiang Shan was still not reconciled, and continued to ask, "If everything develops according to our expectations, then we have missed a great opportunity."

"There will always be opportunities. Our performance this year has risen by nearly 10%, which is 45% higher than the 35% decline in the S&P index. In terms of our size alone, this is even in a good year. , is definitely a remarkable achievement. As for when, it depends on what kind of signal the black president will release after he comes to power!"

   "Well, although your reasons are not completely convincing to me, I have to admit that you do see farther and deeper than me in politics..."

  Jiang Shan only felt dejected for a while. Although he was still somewhat dissatisfied with his words, he also admitted that what Zhong Shi said was enough to convince most members of the US debt team of Tianyu Fund.

   "Boss, your appointment is up!"

Just when Zhong Shi was about to speak to comfort Jiangshan, a staff member walked into the room and said to Zhong Shi in a deep voice, "Bernard Madoff, the chairman of Bernard Madoff Investment Company, is already waiting in the conference room .”

   "Okay, I'll be right there!"

  Zhong Shi casually dismissed the staff member, and then asked: "Jiang Shan, you have been in the United States for so long, do you know who this Madoff is?"

   "This guy is a legend!"

As soon as Madoff was mentioned, Jiang Shan, who was still dejected, immediately became in high spirits, and talked freely, "This guy is the most famous financial broker in the history of the United States. In addition to the company mentioned just now, he also worked as a member of NASDAQ. The chairman of Ke is definitely a well-known figure in the American financial circle. The most admirable thing is that this guy is a top investment expert. His investment company can give investors a stable return of 8% to 12% every year! Yes, you heard it right, it is a stable return, and this kind of stable return has been more than 20 years. Some people say that he is better than Buffett. You must know that Buffett has had a loss-making year, but this guy has never lost a single loss. Miracle."

   "There is no loss, how is this possible?" Zhong Shi was amazed, and he couldn't help but feel a strong curiosity.

"Yes, there has never been a loss!" Jiang Shan said firmly, almost swearing to the sky, "He once boasted that he made money when the market was rising, and he also made money when the market was falling. Only the market lacking volatility made him lose money." Nothing could be done. A lot of people at the time thought he was bragging, but the facts completely shattered their superficial perception. The guy was making money, making money every year, God, it was unimaginable, but it was true! "

  Looking at Jiang Shan's exaggerated expression, Zhong Shi frowned subconsciously, "Go, go and see who this man is and how he can become a general who wins the market. I really can't wait."

Bernard Madoff, now 70 years old, the hair loss on his forehead has shown a standard semi-circle, only a few hairs are still in this semi-circle, it looks a bit weird, but these gray hairs are well taken care of , combing back meticulously. It is inevitable for people over seventy years old to have dimples on their faces, but the well-maintained Madoff is still rosy, and it is impossible to tell that he is nearly seventy years old. Hooked nose, still black eyebrows, tightly pursed lips, and a pair of shrewd eyes that keep scanning around, all of these show that they are different from ordinary people.

   "Hello, Mr. Madoff, I'm Zhongshi!"

  Out of courtesy, Zhong Shi stretched out his hands as soon as he came in, and greeted with a smile on his face, "I have heard of your name for a long time. Welcome to Hong Kong, I hope you can have a pleasant trip."

   “This is such a disappointment!”

After carefully looking at Zhong Shi up and down, Madoff suddenly spoke a surprising word. Just when Zhong Shi, Jiang Shan and others were astonished, Madoff went on to explain, "I saw that Mr. Zhong is so young and promising. When I am already very old, this kind of comparison is really disappointing!"

"Mr. Madoff is really humorous!" Zhong Shi smiled, "I don't know if Mr. Madoff has heard of a saying in Huaxia that the old man's ambition is a thousand miles, which means that even the elderly, as long as they have ambition, It can also do something earth-shattering.”

   "But the career I have worked hard for all my life is really insignificant compared with Mr. Zhong!" Madoff waved his hand and said modestly.

   "They are all great, they are all amazing!" Jiang Shan complimented from the side, and at the same time ended the meaningless flattery of the two, "Mr. Madoff, shall we sit down and talk first?"

  After the two parties were seated, Zhong Shi first asked: "Mr. Madoff, I don't know if you came to Hong Kong this time for business or vacation?"

"Have both!" Madoff brushed his hair and said coolly, "I was originally on vacation, but I had a few customers from Hong Kong, so I stopped by to visit. You also know that HSBC is my big customer. Since you are here When you come to Hong Kong, how can you not visit them? Now that I have visited HSBC and several other customers, I would like to visit all the financial celebrities in Hong Kong by the way. You also know that it is always exciting to make new friends Pleasant things, especially for an old man like me."

   "I didn't expect me to be able to enter your eyes, it's really an honor!" Zhong Shi replied with a smile, but he was very disapproving in his heart. If you have nothing to do, how can you visit the house, and you must know that there is nothing to go to the Three Treasures Hall.

   "In addition, there is another thing that I personally think is more important, that is, my company is preparing to establish a new fund, so I will sell it to clients during my vacation."

Sure enough, when Zhong Shi was still thinking about the intention of the other party, Madoff had already said, "The initial scale is about 5 billion U.S. dollars, and it has raised 2 billion U.S. dollars in funds, including many hedge funds and A large commercial bank. Out of trust in our stable returns, many old customers have also increased their investment. However, seeing Tianyu Fund’s posture, I feel that this visit may be a bit abrupt.”

   Seeing Zhong Shi's indifferent face, Madoff forced a smile and said, his expression was rather unnatural.

   "Generally speaking, what is the return on investment?" Zhong Shi tapped on the armrest of the chair, pondered for a while, and then asked suddenly.

Madoff was overjoyed immediately. He knew that the other party was moved, and said without hesitation: "8%, this is the lowest annualized return I can promise you." Finally, after thinking about it, he added, "Of course, Based on our strategy, don’t expect the return to be too high, after all, our strategy is different from that of hedge funds. Our biggest feature is stable returns!”

"Stablize?"

Zhong Shi chuckled in his heart, and instead of continuing to entangle on this topic, he asked the other party's opinion on the current economic situation, "Mr. Madoff, you are a senior in the industry, I don't know how you feel about the current economic crisis. Look?"

   Thank you book friend for being secretive, oh my **** it’s really hard to name, Xiao Shuili, book friend 140124234238290, my heart is crazy, hhr111 for voting monthly! Thank you book friend Falcon Great for your reward! After sorting out my thoughts, I finally wrote it today without making everyone wait too long. No matter how many trifles there are, the author will spare a fixed time to write the book, and try not to let everyone down. I hope that all book friends can continue to support this book, thank you everyone~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)