Chapter 730 Late Night Secret Talk (3)

  What kind of organization is the European Union?

   According to statistics in 2008, the GDP of the entire EU reached 18.4 trillion US dollars, while the US GDP in the same year was 14.2 trillion US dollars. This means that the combined output value of the entire European economy is even larger than that of the entire United States.

   This has not counted the United Kingdom, which is extremely closely connected with the European economy.

   Wanting to shake such an economy is undoubtedly a dream, so Zhong Shi's first reaction is that these people want to bake him on the fire.

   "No, no, no!"

  After seeing the tricks used by the U.S. government behind the national debt market, Zhong Shi has made up his mind to keep a distance from these governments. Under the glamorous surface, there are too many unknown shady plots and conspiracies hidden. If you are not careful, you may be crushed to pieces, which may be the final fate of Zhongshi.

   So he flatly refused.

   "Keep calm, Mr. Zhong, don't rush to refuse. Listen to my point of view before making a decision, okay?"

  The faces of all the people present changed drastically, including Paulson. They knew that if Zhong Shi did not participate, the whole plan would have little chance of success. But there are always exceptions to everything. Ray Delio is the only one who can keep calm. He stood up, looked around slowly, and then calmly persuaded, "Counting it, we also know ten people. A few years. Or, earlier, we have been in contact. Until today, you still have not withdrawn your investment in Bridgewater Joint Fund, which is enough to show your trust in me, right?"

  Zhong Shi didn't speak, just nodded silently.

  Speaking of friendship with Ray Delio, Zhong Shi once communicated with him through Zhongyi, and later invested in Bridgewater Associates after his fortune. After so many years, the small amount of funds at that time has expanded into an astonishing amount. Of course, all this is far from what Zhongshi has obtained today.

   Speaking of Bridgewater Associates, even Zhongshi is full of praise for it. This fund can be regarded as the first hedge fund other than Tianyu Fund, and the scale of funds under management is as high as 100 billion US dollars, which is enough to illustrate all this.

  Even Soros at his peak, he didn't reach this point.

  "Before this, I didn't agree with this idea, but after comprehensive consideration of the relationship between European countries, including various factors such as politics and economy, I finally think that Paulson's plan is feasible."

Now that Zhong Shi is willing to listen, the next thing will be much easier. Ray Delio sat down silently, picked up a branch, carefully fiddled with the fire, and said casually, "In the original plan Among them, we only focus on one country. You also know that because of the loss of monetary policy, some countries in the European Union will face the risk of bankruptcy, and it coincides with the current economic downturn, so it gives us the possibility of shorting. "

  Will the country go bankrupt?

  This question was answered in the mid-eighties. At that time, before the outbreak of the debt crisis in the Americas, the entire Wall Street frantically invested there, because it was one of the places with the highest returns in the world. Although there are often risk reminders, Wall Street firmly believes that "the country will not go bankrupt" and still invests heavily in South America.

   Later, when the crisis broke out, the American countries were unable to repay their debts, so they could only postpone repayment through restructuring, and Wall Street suffered heavy losses for a while. The debt turmoil has dragged on until now because some institutions simply did not accept debt restructuring plans. Just a while ago, an Argentine warship was detained in Africa because a certain hedge fund sued in The Hague, trying to force the Argentine government to repay its debts in this way.

  However, for the European Union, the first economy, this problem does not seem to exist, because the entire region is too rich.

  However, beneath the flowers and the flames, lies the cold fact that certain countries in the European Union do have the possibility of bankruptcy.

  Because of uneven development, some countries in the EU have high debt ratios. Although the value of the euro is sufficient, the amount issued is in the hands of the European Central Bank. That is to say, if a country is unable to repay its foreign debts, it either seeks help from the powerful countries in the EU, or it breaks away from the European Economic Community and resumes its right to issue currency.

  For the former, relief to poor countries will definitely arouse public dissatisfaction. Whether it can be passed needs to be observed, which depends on a series of influencing factors, not only economic, but also political, cultural and many other reasons. As for the latter, like the former, there are also great uncertainties about how much money will be re-issued by a country that is unable to repay foreign debts, and to what extent it will be recognized by the market.

  So in summary, the risk of bankruptcy in some countries in the EU is indeed an objective existence. Moreover, this risk will be infinitely magnified, and it is extremely possible that it will eventually endanger the unity of the entire EU.

   "This is our logic."

After Ray Delio explained the joints clearly and clearly, he spread his hands and said, "Many of them were inspired by you just now. Although I don't envy Paulson's achievements, I have to I don't believe his discerning eyes. Mr. Zhong, we did not misjudge you."

   Being praised by him like this, Zhong Shi was very pleased, but he did not let down his vigilance, because the whole matter was not trivial, and he had to consider all aspects.

   "What about Europe?"

Zhong Shi said, "If the whole matter is known to the high-level European officials, will they take some unsightly measures? This is what worries me the most. I always feel that if we really do this, it is undoubtedly challenge the authority of the entire EU."

   This was the first time Zhong Shi expressed his doubts. After hearing this, everyone was overjoyed. They knew that Zhong Shi was not so resistant, and they began to think seriously about the whole plan.

   "This is very possible, but we have to consider the scale, so I decided to invite a European fund to join."

At this time Paulson said, "It must be a substantial fund with a close relationship with the government. On the one hand, they help us bear part of the pressure of public opinion. If the entire plan is leaked, on the other hand, they act as our internal correspondents and keep abreast of their internal affairs. wind direction."

"As long as we keep the whole thing within a certain range, I think the core countries in the EU will be happy to turn a blind eye to it. After all, they also have many differences internally. But if we make the whole thing go When we grow up, they will definitely come forward and warn us, and it will not be too late for us to stop when the time comes."

   "After all, we represent the power of the United States, and you, Mr. Zhong, represent the power of China.

  If there is a conflict, it is very likely to cause a large-scale conflict, so that neither side can step down, so the final situation will be controlled within a certain range. This is the balance technique. "

   Paulson said confidently.

   "However, how can you guarantee that the U.S. government will intervene when necessary?"

I have to admit that Paulson's remarks are still very convincing, and Zhong Shi was somewhat convinced, but new questions appeared immediately, but after saying this, it was like a flash of lightning In his mind, he thought of all this in an instant, "All of this is manipulated by the US government, isn't it? Or, is this an economic war that the new president acquiesces to?"

   No one spoke, everyone dodged wherever Zhong Shi looked. This scene fell in Zhong Shi's eyes, and the answer seemed to be ready.

"I see!"

   Zhong Shi now fully understands that these people are just pawns of the US government. Their purpose is to disturb the muddy waters in Europe and transfer the crisis that happened in the United States to Europe. Because only a huge economy like the European Union in this world can afford a crisis of the scale of the United States, and other countries such as Asia and South America are impossible.

  If this is really the case, then the whole plan is very promising, Zhong Shi thought silently in his heart.

   "There is one last question, why did you choose me?"

After the context of the whole matter gradually became clear, Zhong Shi was no longer as afraid as before, and began to seriously discuss the feasibility of the whole matter, "I am very curious about this, and it is also the basis of our cooperation. If If I can’t get a satisfactory answer, it doesn’t rule out my withdrawal from this alliance.”

  By this time, basically the framework of the entire conversation has been reached, and the rest are only some details. Although there is still a lot of work to do in the follow-up, for today's talks, the original intention is close to completion.

   "I wonder if Mr. Zhong has seen the movie "Mission Impossible"?"

Everyone's eyes fell on Paulson again, and he said calmly, "The special agent team led by Ethan Hunt helps the government solve all kinds of troubles. But when they encounter troubles, the government It does not recognize their existence. This is the real relationship between us and the government. I think everyone must understand this. They only trust big institutions such as ****, Stanley, and Citibank. We treat them Said it was just a small role."

"But because of the nature of hedge funds, we have become the most sensitive small group of people in the entire market, so for them, we are indispensable. So when I revealed the whole plan to Washington, Their attitude is one of silence, which I interpret as tacit approval."

"The rest is our own business. If we really want to operate, we must find a character like Ethan Hawke, who is wise, brave, intelligent, calm and insightful, and has charisma and influence at the same time. After much deliberation, I think this role belongs to you, and other candidates are not suitable."

"First of all, the source of inspiration for the whole project is your article, and we cannot abandon you due to emotion and reason. Secondly, according to your advanced vision and performance just now, we have been deeply impressed. Although before that, we I still have doubts about the leader of the entire team, but I believe that after the performance just now, the people here have no doubts, right?"

  As he spoke, he raised his head and cast a questioning look at the others. Everyone who was caught by his eyes nodded in agreement. It seems that they have indeed reached an agreement on this point.

"Most importantly, I see in you what we have in common: ambition and ambition, in a nice way; greed and insatiability, in a less flattering way. I think we're all the same man, isn't it?"

  After Paulson finished speaking, he looked at Zhong Shi with a half-smile, "Is this reason sufficient?"

   "This statement is barely acceptable!"

Zhong Shi was unmoved, nodded expressionlessly, and continued, "There is another important question, that is, how will you ensure my safety when the situation gets out of hand? Of course, what I said It's an extreme case."

  He didn't mention the obligation, because once the plan actually unfolds, the whole team will revolve around him, so at that moment he will bear a lot of pressure. He also didn't mention rights, because he has the largest amount of funds due to the number of people present, and if everything goes well, I believe his benefits will also be the largest.

   Now there is only one last question left, which is how to face the possible anger from Europe. If Zhong Shi was the leader of the entire team, after the European side noticed it, they would only blame him. After all, he did not have the protection of the US government.

"this problem…"

Paulson pondered for a long time without speaking. After a long while, he slowly raised his head, with a strange smile on his face, "I was almost confused by you. In fact, including us, we may all be abandoned at critical moments. But for you, Zhong Shi, this is completely impossible, because Huaxia will protect you no matter what, right?"

"However, we can give you a promise, that is, at any time, as long as you are troubled by the European side, we will be sure that the US government will take action once. But only once, because by that time, no matter how the situation develops, we will not be able to It's under control. We'll evacuate when the time comes, you understand?"

  Although it is not clear how Paulson is currently doing business in Washington and what kind of promises he has received from the United States, with this guarantee, Zhong Shi finally breathed a sigh of relief.

   "I join!"

  Zhong Shi stood up, solemnly stretched out his hand towards the central position, and said relaxedly.

Looking left and right, Ray Del Rio was the second to reach out, followed by Paulson, and finally everyone stretched out their hands. Beside the raging fire, under the starlight of South Africa, everyone burst into laughter. After shouting, the alliance is considered to be reached.

   "Okay, time to eat!"

  Land Rover, who had been silent by the side, spoke at this moment, and at the same time moved the roasted antelope from the fire and put it on another stand.

  The whole antelope presents a deep golden color, and at the same time exudes an attractive fragrance, like amber oil seeping from the crispy skin, dripping onto the ground. These fund managers who have tasted all the delicacies of mountains and seas are quite greedy, and some even swallowed unconsciously.

  Zhong Shi has been running around for a long time during the day, and fought a lot of brains with these guys at night, but he is already exhausted and hungry. Seeing that he could finally eat, he slapped it hard with the palm of his hand. After smelling the smell of burnt meat, he showed an expression of intoxication and satisfaction on his face.

   "EU, is it like this fat sheep?"

  Suddenly a strange thought appeared in his mind, which made Zhong Shi laugh out involuntarily.

   Thanks to book friends Xiaoshuili and ljg1001 for voting monthly! Recently, I have finally seen some signs of improvement. I hope the situation will get better and better. The author will continue to work hard! Looking forward to the support of more book friends, thank you~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)