Chapter 754 The Death of Small Fund (1)

   On January 20, 2010, Tianyu Fund released an extremely brief statement on its official website.

"Spain's "Avantgarde" commented and interpreted the remarks made by the company's founder and manager Mr. Zhong Shi, which did not conform to Mr. Zhong Shi's original intention. Investors are invited to think independently and judge by themselves. We will continue to observe the follow-up development of public opinion , and reserves the right to further legal proceedings."

  One short sentence negates everything Zhong Shi said before.

   Tianyu Fund's website is very simple, so clean that it is almost outrageous. With a pure white background, the word "Tianyu Fund" is marked in simplified Chinese, traditional Chinese and English on the top, and there is only one option in the sub-column below: news reports. And there is only one piece of "news" in this poor column, which was published in 1994: Tianyu Fund was established today.

   It took a full sixteen years before they released the second message, which is today's statement.

  Naturally, because of this excessive low-key, the Tianyu Fund's website had no visitors at all, and the news was not spread until four days later. However, because the content is really boring, the media is not even interested in reporting it, and just reproduced it in a small range.

   At the same time, Jim Chanos and Bill Gross also issued statements, claiming that the content of their speeches was deliberately distorted by the media in order to attract attention.

  The statements of Jim Chanos, Bill Gross and others are much more interesting. They did not categorically deny it like Zhongshi did, but they all said some vague words. Neither affirming nor denying, purely official formula. As soon as the two people's remarks came out, the market knew that they were perfunctory.

  Among the four, only Paulson did not make a sound. This is because compared with the others, what he said did not arouse the dissatisfaction of the relevant governments.

   After all, even Zhong Shi himself should not go too far. Maybe what he said is true, but he must also take into account the feelings of the Spanish government. After all, the other party is a sovereign government.

  Since the steps are given, both parties are happy.

  …

   "They are indeed manipulating!"

  Holding the "Pioneer", Williams Roger waved it excitedly at the others, "I told you a long time ago, there are people behind this debt crisis who are manipulating it."

  Collen Smithson, Jack Mullen and the others looked at each other. After looking at each other, Collen Smithson silently took the newspaper and began to read it carefully.

  Williams Roger took an English version of the "Pioneer", otherwise it seemed a bit difficult for them. A moment later, Colum Smith put down the newspaper with a strange expression, and silently delivered it to Jack Mullen, who was looking forward to it. Then he shook his head, "I'm still not sure!"

  The content of the "Pioneer" only briefly stated the general content of Zhong Shi's remarks, but did not explain the reasons or internal logic. The point is that there are at least dozens of such alarmist conclusions in the market every day.

  If you really believe these words, then every day is the end of the world.

  So even if Zhong Shi said it himself, Collen Smithen would not easily believe it.

"you…"

  Williams was directly angry, pointing at Colum Smithen and wanted to curse, but when the words came to his lips, he still forcibly endured it. With a long sigh, he said rather sadly, "Why don't you believe me?"

   "Because it's simply not possible!"

  Jack Mullen sneered, and replied disdainfully, "Roger, let's discuss how to operate gold next week!"

"right!"

Upon hearing this, Williams, who was still listless, regained his spirits and said excitedly, "Actually, the core of the whole problem is not whether you really believe me, or whether this matter is true. It is how we use this phenomenon to guess the performance of the market, and then achieve our purpose of making profits."

   "My God, why didn't I think of this question?"

  He slapped his head vigorously, "I'm so stupid that I didn't think of this crucial question."

Concerned about his sudden nervousness, Colum Smithen and Jack Mullen glanced at each other, both of them could see the helplessness in each other's eyes, they shook their heads imperceptibly, and they stopped picking up Williams Rowe Jay's words.

"In the past week, the price of gold rose by a total of 5.16%. Fortunately, we gambled in the right direction, and our total assets have risen by about 50% so far. Although we doubled our leverage, in order to ensure A part of the additional reserves, so there is no full position operation."

Colum Smith coughed lightly, and began to summarize last week's market, "Although this kind of operation is strictly speaking a bit risky, fortunately we won the bet. Of course, it is a bit sloppy to use the word gambling, after all, it is our The results of the research. Gentlemen, I would like to hear your opinions or suggestions on our follow-up operations in the next time, should we continue to increase positions or turn short? Or should we close our positions and leave the market?"

   "Leaving is definitely impossible!"

Jack Mullen was the first to speak, "The market is currently fluctuating, and based on the current situation, there is a high possibility that there will continue to be market trends in the future. If we leave the market here, I am afraid we will be scolded by our investors It's bloody. However, after the rebound has reached the peak now, and whether there is room for further rise in the future, I am cautiously optimistic. After all, after rising to a high of $1,162 a few days ago, the next day There has been a considerable correction, and I believe this should be the limit of the market in the near future.”

"The market fluctuations in the past few days have slowed down significantly, and there is no major news in terms of news, except that Moody's warned the Portuguese government. But we have all seen that this news has hardly caused much impact on the gold market. After all, for Portugal as a country, their influence on the gold market is really limited.”

   "So my suggestion is that we continue to observe when the market outlook is not very clear, and wait until the situation becomes clear before deciding on the next trend."

   Talked a lot, just to prove my final conclusion. Although Jack Mullen's view was a bit conservative, it still resonated with many other people. At least two of the six people present nodded in agreement.

   "No, no, no!"

As soon as Jack Mullen's words fell, Williams Roger jumped out impatiently, "Although your idea is safe, you have missed a great opportunity to make money. According to my point of view, not only should we not wait and see, but also It is necessary to increase the position and leverage. With the help of the boss, we may be able to earn dozens of times the profit."

   "Are you kidding me?"

  Jack Mullen was very unhappy, glared at Williams, and said dissatisfiedly, "Your conspiracy theory is coming again! But it doesn't matter. According to your conspiracy theory, should we be short or long?"

   "Go Long!"

  Williams Roger said without thinking, but he immediately changed his words the next moment, "No, it should be short!"

   "Short or long?"

   It wasn't just Jack Mullen who was dissatisfied, the others also frowned. Jack Mullen laughed back angrily, and asked in a mocking tone that everyone could hear, "Tell me your reason for being long, and then tell me your reason for being short. Let's see, which one is better?" persuasive?"

   This is almost equivalent to attacking your own shield with your own spear.

Although everyone could hear the ridicule in Jack Mullen's tone, Williams Roger ignored it, still thinking seriously, and said leisurely after a long while: "I'm not sure about their positions and how many chips they want to absorb. , and whether or not they've done it now. So in this case, everything I've said before is speculation."

   "Guess?"

Jack Mullen raised his voice, and the meaning of ridicule became stronger, "You mean we are following them? Don't forget that the premise of all your establishment is speculation. This is simply unbelievable. Using a hypothesis To make another hypothesis, do you think we are doing academic research?"

"Assuming they are manipulating, the probability is 50/50, and then we take the risk to follow up, the probability is also 50/50, because we have the choice not to follow, and we have to bet on the right direction later, this is still 50/50. My God , if according to your idea, we only have a probability of 12.5% ​​to make the profit you mentioned, is this probability too low?"

He counted for Williams with his fingers, "In addition, we don't know whether their positions are in place and what the target price is. Even if it is a 50-50 probability, then the probability that we can make money may be It is lower than 10%, does this still need to be considered?"

   It has to be said that mathematics has been fully utilized in finance. In addition to professional quantitative funds, it has also been widely used in decision-making.

"what?"

  Williams Roger was still immersed in his reverie, he raised his head blankly, glanced at Jack Mullen, and then asked, "What 12.5% ​​probability?"

  Jack Mullen almost spat out a mouthful of old blood, his expression collapsed instantly, and after shaking his head helplessly, he sat down dejectedly.

   "If we assume that they have successfully built positions before, it is very likely that now is a great opportunity to greatly increase the price of gold."

Williams Roger didn't care about Jack Mullen's expression at all, and explained to himself, "So in this case, we should increase the position and increase the leverage. I believe everyone understands the truth. Under the influence of the market, the price of gold will rise sharply, which may far exceed our imagination. Of course, all of this must be based on the market losing confidence in Europe."

"There is another situation, that is, they have not completed the preparatory work. Then my judgment is that they may use their financial advantages to suppress the price of gold and achieve the purpose of absorbing chips. After all, so far, everything They are all still speculating, and only those countries or governments that they are targeting have real authority. Therefore, in this case, the price of gold may fall, and we have to turn short and wait until the right time to go long with them. It's the same logic."

"But whether you are long or short, you have to understand the financial situation of those countries, and the situation of those guys who intend to manipulate the market. Sorry, we don't have this information, so I don't know whether to be long or short. "

   "Talking for a long time is tantamount to talking for nothing!"

  Everyone had such an idea in their minds.

   "What the **** are you trying to say?"

As the big boss, Collen Smithen was impatient, and asked Williams Roger with a frown, "If you know whether they increase their positions, you only need to know if their positions increase. Isn't it such a simple truth? Don’t understand? God, you have said so much, at least let me understand one truth!”

"what?"

  Williams was still in a daze. After hearing what Colum Smith said, he widened his eyes and looked at him in puzzlement.

   "Stand still!"

  Collen Smithon slapped the table and announced loudly, "The meeting is over!"

   Thanks to book friends Shihuangtian, Haotian-Wudi, and Xiaohongzhu for voting monthly! Thanks to the book friends gengsu and the electromagnetist for their rewards! Thank you very much for your active support, I hope the results of this book will get better and better, the author and everyone will work together!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)