Chapter 834 Powerful Golden Finger

  The practice of sitting on the fence finally convinced everyone. Of course, it is impossible to completely convince them. For this reason, Zhong Shi had to guarantee that if the US government noticed the actions of their gang, the others could withdraw at any time.

  After all, deep down in their hearts, they are unwilling and afraid to confront the government.

Of course, this is not just because of power, because the establishment of the system prevents the U.S. government from acting recklessly, but these people have done a lot of shady things in private, and they are not innocent people, so they So worried about what the government thinks about this.

   "The whole thing is perfectly planned, but there's only one problem, you shouldn't be looking for these guys, you should be looking for another group of hedge funds that are not involved in these things."

"Personally, I appreciate your ideas very much, because I have also been questioned in short selling. But I always believe that if the dark side of the market is not cleaned up, there will be no healthy market. And I am the leader of the market. Scavenger is the error correction mechanism of the market. The market needs people like me and the 'opposition party'. People like us should not be hijacked and controlled by the government, and should not be intimidated and threatened because of collusion between government and business. We need to improve our own Status and prestige, let the whole society realize our role in the capital market.”

"That kind of prestige not only helps improve our current situation, but also turns into our umbrella, an invisible deterrent to those companies that break the law and wanton governments. These are your great contributions to the hedge fund industry. .If this whole thing actually works out in the end, your contribution to the hedge fund industry will be unmatched."

   "Anyway, I'm personally willing to follow your lead."

  Among the few people, only Jim Chanos, who has been silent all this time, expressed great agreement with the whole matter. After the others left, he said such heartfelt words to Zhong Shi.

   Zhong Shi was very moved by such a statement. The other party is an investor known for being short-sellers, and he has been intimidated and threatened more than others, so he urgently needs to change his situation. The most rare thing is that he not only wants to change his own situation, but also wants to improve the prestige of the entire industry. In this regard, he is much more noble than others.

  In any case, this matter was initially settled, and then everyone began to act with a clear division of labor.

   On July 3, Standard & Poor's first made an effort to warn Greece that if it wanted to issue new debts in exchange for old debts, it would define Greece's debts as a default.

  Because of the debt crisis, Greece accepted the first round of aid from the EU and the IMF, but this does not mean that the Greek government has no other ideas. In June they tried to propose replacing old debt with new debt in an attempt to buy time. But soon this approach was ruthlessly rejected by rating agencies.

  In fact, this is indeed the case. Without the assistance of the European Union and the IMF, it would be impossible for Greece's debt to be extended through replacement, because there is no credit and no institution buys it. Now with the financial assistance from the European Union and the IMF, Greece actually wants to survive in this way, which naturally angered many institutions.

  So Standard & Poor's said bluntly that if the Greek government really intends to do this, it will directly judge Greece to default on its national debt. A solemn warning was issued on behalf of the market.

   In this way, the Greek government no longer dares to act rashly, and this proposal is officially stillborn.

   But the whole thing let the market see that the Greek government is ready to move. What follows is that the Greek debt crisis has not been completely resolved so far, because the unreliable government has made the whole thing continue to deteriorate, which not only makes the market worry about the prospect of the European debt crisis again.

   Immediately afterwards, the non-agricultural data of the United States was released, which greatly exceeded market expectations. The decrease in non-agricultural employment means an increase in the unemployment rate, which also represents the sluggishness of the US economy.

  During this period, because of the end of QE2, the US government had a period of vacuum in terms of monetary policy. At this time, the recovery of the US economy fluctuated again, which made the market worry about the US economy again.

  Under the two-pronged approach, the risk aversion sentiment in the market has soared, and the price of gold has risen for five consecutive days.

  Although the news is positive, no one realizes that there is another force at work.

  Subsequently, good news came again, this time from Ireland and Italy in Europe.

  First of all, Ireland, the "Wall Street Journal" claimed that the EU is reassessing the size of Ireland's debt, because the previously estimated 80 billion euros may not be enough. The new aid plan will be decided based on the total size of the debt after assessment, and the most conservative estimate may require an increase of 5 billion to 10 billion euros in new funds.

  As soon as the news came out, the market was stunned.

   Immediately following the news, Fitch and Moody's respectively downgraded Italy's rating outlook to "negative". In the statement, both parties stated that the bad debt problem in the Italian banking system is likely to erupt within the next six months. If the Italian government wants to save the country's banking system, it is very likely to follow the old path of Ireland, and finally can only ask for help from the European Union and the IMF.

   As soon as the news came out, it immediately shook the entire market.

  Because Italy is the third largest economy in the euro zone, if there is a crisis in it, it is very likely to shake the foundation of the entire euro. The resurgence of the European debt crisis is by no means empty talk.

  Stimulated by the two news, the debt crisis in Europe reappeared, and the risk aversion sentiment in the market was unprecedentedly high. Although the dollar rose due to the fall of the euro, it still did not stop the rise of gold.

  Gold futures rose for another week!

Since July 4th, gold has started a wave of 11-day rising momentum, from the previous highest point of 1,500 US dollars per ounce to 1,600 US dollars per ounce, and the highest point even climbed to 1607.4 US dollars per ounce, a record high in one fell swoop. All-time highs in the price of gold.

  Due to the rapid rise, the game between short and long in the gold futures market was extremely fierce. The holdings of SPDR, the largest gold ETF fund, also increased significantly, with an increase of more than 43 tons. The market has clearly divided the future trend of gold prices.

   On July 19, the U.S. Congress discussed the U.S. national debt ceiling, which eased the safe-haven sentiment for gold to a certain extent. But soon, on the 22nd, the US negotiations on the national debt ceiling collapsed, and the House of Representatives even stated that they would no longer seek a major agreement with the White House on the national debt ceiling, which made the risk aversion sentiment rise again.

  However, August 2 is the final date, and there is still time left for the US debt ceiling. The market is still full of confidence in this, but the price of gold cannot drop.

   "Zhong Sheng, according to your opinion, how will the US debt problem be solved in the end?"

  Jiangshan and Zhongshi, who have stayed in New York, watched the continued rise of gold prices with a cold eye. Under their impetus, the price of gold has risen by more than $150 per ounce in the past month, and every day's rise is a record high. In this case, they have made a lot of money.

   Now the market has left them with a big suspense, that is, the issue of the US debt ceiling. On this issue, they are powerless and can only wait for the development of the situation.

   "A consensus will be reached, there is no doubt about it!"

  Zhong Shi withdrew his gaze from the screen and said confidently, "No matter what, the possibility of the U.S. national debt defaulting is basically equal to zero. No matter how the two sides play, they will eventually reach an agreement, otherwise the government will shut down."

"From the perspective of the Republican Party, they oppose tax increases and tend to protect the interests of the wealthy class of large conglomerates, while the Democrats tend to cut spending and increase taxes. The position of the Republican Party determines that they are happy to see the debt problem continue to ferment, so that The public will increase their complaints against the Democrats, which will benefit their general election next year."

"So far, although they have pretended to follow suit, the current plan has only one principle, that is, to procrastinate, to raise the upper limit slowly and in stages, so that the public will not feel the trouble of the debt crisis all the time, which will have a greater impact on the Democratic Party. complain."

"The negotiations on July 19th, they threw out a new plan, that is, Congress passed legislation authorizing the government to raise the debt ceiling three times before the end of 2012, but Congress has the right to reject these plans, but the president can use the veto Power to veto resolutions of Congress, giving the president the power to raise the debt ceiling."

"This plan looks good, but in fact it has evil intentions, because in this way all dissatisfaction is attributed to the current president alone. It seems that the Republican Party has made major concessions, but in fact the Democratic Party has assumed all the responsibility and responsibility. Dissatisfaction, which will be very beneficial to their future campaign strategy."

"This includes a lot of intrigue, but no matter what, if an agreement cannot be reached on August 2, the two sides must really consider the serious consequences of partisanship, at least in the gold market. .”

  Finally Zhong Shi said with a smile.

   "If the two sides finally reach an agreement in August, will it mean the collapse of gold prices?"

Although Zhong Shi spoke very confidently, Jiang Shan still said worriedly, "After all, the current price is under the influence of various news. If they finally reach an agreement, the risk aversion sentiment will fade to a certain extent. Gold It is very likely that there will be a large drop in the price of the stock, are we considering reducing some of our positions now?"

"no need!"

   Regarding this point, Zhong Shi once again expressed sufficient confidence, "Don't forget, we still have two backup tricks that we haven't used yet!"

   "You mean AngloGold and Barrick Gold in South Africa?"

  Jiangshan suddenly realized, "From a fundamental point of view, the two gold suppliers have problems at the same time, which will inevitably cause a huge shock to the market. This is indeed a good news, enough to offset the bad news from the United States."

   "In addition, have you noticed that the data of the U.S. economy has not performed well during this period. Even if the debt problem is resolved, the Fed still has to make suggestions for the U.S. economy."

Just as Jiang Shan was digesting Zhong Shi's words carefully, Zhong Shi said again, "They are planning an economic war in Europe, and in the end, because the effect of QE2 is not obvious, the United States loses the capital to attract funds, which will inevitably lead to Outflow to other markets is not what they want to see. In this case, we have more room to maneuver!"

"E.g?"

  Jiangshan didn't react for a while.

   “For example, the U.S. government may implement QE3, another quantitative easing policy.”

  Zhong Shi chuckled, "Maybe they don't want to, but we can make the market think that the US government has plans to carry out a new round of quantitative easing, and that's enough."

  The so-called QE is the quantitative easing policy, which simply means injecting liquidity into the market. In this case, the U.S. dollar may depreciate, and gold, which is a contrarian indicator and a commodity to store value, will definitely rise in price again. This is Zhongshi's final trick.

   "If I am not wrong in my estimation, the price of gold may eventually rise by more than $1,900, and even rise to $2,000 an ounce."

  Zhong Shi narrowed his eyes, sighed quietly, and said, "When we reached $1,800, we began to sell gradually. By the time the entire market reacted, we had already retreated!"

   Thanks to book friends n2800b617dUDUtro, gengsu, Nan nathan, Lao Nafahao Takong, Manqiangchunse Gongqiangliu for voting monthly tickets! In addition, I would also like to express my gratitude to the book friends who did not mention it in time! I hope this month will be better than last month, the author will continue to insist, and hope that more book friends can actively vote for more~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)