Chapter 850 Cannes G20 meeting (3)

  For the video from an unknown source, it is just an unexpected event in the overall plan. Since the rumors that Italy may be involved in the debt crisis emerged, the major economies of the European Union have to study how to completely get rid of the shadow of the debt crisis, including the rescue of Greece again.

  On October 27, a historic solution to the debt crisis was finally introduced. The banking industry cut off half of the Greek debt, and the total amount of the European financial rescue mechanism was expanded to one trillion euros.

   This agreement was reached at the EU summit, attended by not only finance ministers from the euro zone, but also banking representatives from European countries. Because it involved requiring the banking industry to write down Greek debts, the two sides conducted lengthy negotiations. Finally, the European banking industry agreed to write down 50% of Greece's debts, or as much as 100 billion euros. In return, private institutions will be allowed to be added to the rescue team for Greece, and the euro zone will provide them with 30 billion euros as "credit enhancement".

  While reducing the total debt of Greece, the European rescue mechanism EFSF has also begun to expand. The French President solemnly announced that the total fund size of EFSF will be expanded to 1 trillion euros in November to meet possible challenges in the future. At the same time, in order to cope with the possible crisis in the banking industry, it also plans to increase the capital ratio of the entire European banking industry.

  According to the published information, the European Union will require the capital ratio of the entire European banking industry to be raised to 9% before the end of June 2012 to cope with possible crises.

This time, the EU summit was held before the G20 World Summit. The purpose was to reach an agreement internally before global leaders discuss the economy, and then discuss it with leaders of other countries at the G20 summit. Finally, Form a global consensus.

The wishful thinking of the leaders of the euro zone is that even if the leaders of other countries in the world will not lend a hand to help the euro zone, at least they must not be held back at critical times, especially the United States, Japan, China and other countries. Time is not to do things that add insult to injury.

  On September 20, Standard & Poor’s adjusted Italy’s sovereign credit rating from A+ to A, and rated the rating outlook as “negative”. The purpose of doing so is undoubtedly to make the entire euro zone resolve to solve the debt problem thoroughly.

   As the eye of the storm in the entire crisis, Greece has accepted the second round of 109 billion euro rescue plan. However, on this basis, EU countries have allocated another 30 billion euros to assist private institutions. At present, they are encouraging private institutions to participate in the Greek rescue to ease the pressure on the government. As a result, the second round of rescue efforts for Greece reached as much as 130 billion euros.

   It can be seen from this that the Eurozone still attaches great importance to the Greek issue. Although they have accepted a round of rescue, the Eurozone is still not at ease with the situation in this country.

  As soon as the results of the EU summit came out, the entire world financial market reacted immediately.

  Euro rose immediately against the U.S. dollar, soaring directly from 1.3890 to 1.4198 that day, an increase of 0.0313, an increase of 2.26%, and the exchange rate at the highest point of 1.4247 also hit a new high in the past three months.

  Affected by this news, the U.S. dollar has fallen globally, and it has fallen to varying degrees against the British pound, Australian dollar, Japanese yen and other currencies. At the same time, because of this broad benefit, the stock markets of various countries have also risen to varying degrees, and commodities have risen across the board, and the market's appetite for risk has rapidly warmed up.

  Stanley made a brief comment on this: With the fruits of the EU summit, the entire market has been affected. Although the euro against the dollar directly broke through the major 1.4 mark that day, there may be minor adjustments in the follow-up. But generally speaking, the re-strengthening of the euro is an irreversible fact, unless the current Greek rescue plan is found to have major flaws.

Several other major investment banks also expressed similar opinions one after another, that is, after expanding the total amount of the rescue mechanism, the debt crisis in Europe is not as terrible as imagined, and although the debt crisis in the euro zone still exists in the future, it will definitely not would be as scary as it is now.

  The whole world is full of positive and optimistic sentiment, and is optimistic about the prospects of the euro zone.

But what the whole world didn't expect was that this kind of positive optimism only lasted for three days. Before the analysts discovered the loopholes in the Greek rescue plan, Greece itself made a big news that caused a sensation all over the world. news.

   On October 31, to the surprise of the whole world, the Greek government suddenly issued a statement, announcing that it will conduct a referendum on the new rescue plan just passed by the EU summit, and at the same time, it will conduct a vote of confidence in the parliament.

  According to the timetable released in this statement, a confidence vote may be conducted in the next few days in the form of approval of a new rescue plan, while a referendum may be held in January next year. It will be the country's first referendum on the country's form of government since a referendum was held in 1974.

Among the reasons given, the Greek authorities claimed that because of the strong opposition of the opposition party to the new rescue plan and the huge pressure from the public demonstrations, the authorities decided to seek a nationwide referendum in accordance with the rights enshrined in the constitution to solve the current dilemma .

  Papandreou said in a statement: "We trust the people and ask them to say yes or no to the new agreement!"

At the same time, he also said in his speech in Congress: "The current dilemma is not to keep the existing government or to change the government. The crux of the problem is whether the Greek people agree to the latest debt agreement, whether to continue to stay in the EU, whether to continue Keep the euro."

   In other words, the purpose of Papandreou's choice of referendum is to confirm whether Greece will continue to stay in the euro zone.

It can be said that the new agreement reached at the EU summit is extremely beneficial to Greece. Among them, the debt reduction plan for Greece will directly reduce the total debt of Greece from 160% of the total GDP to 120%. %, while allowing private agencies to rescue, also increased the diversity of sources of rescue funds.

   But such a rescue agreement was ruthlessly "rejected" by the Greek authorities. We must know that under the current circumstances, the Greek people's opposition to the new rescue plan is as high as 60%. Of course, what they opposed was not the rescue plan itself, but because of the additional conditions brought about by the new rescue plan, that is, the impact on them of fiscal austerity in public services and taxes.

  A rescue plan that is very favorable in the eyes of the whole world was just "rejected" by the Greek authorities.

   Once the news came out, it immediately shocked the whole world.

   The European stock markets were the first to be hit. The London Financial Times Index fell 122.65 points that day, or 2.21%. Germany's Frankfurt DAX index fell 306.83 points, a drop of 5%. Paris CAC40 stock index fell 174.51 points, a drop of 5.38%.

   Immediately afterwards, the New York stock market also suffered a severe setback. The three major stock indexes of Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq all fell by more than 2%, reversing the market some time ago.

At the same time, the global commodity market has also reversed. Three days ago, the risk appetite was still picking up, but on this day, global funds were frantically looking for safe havens. Commodities other than precious metals were directly abandoned, and prices returned to previous levels. two day price level

  In the most directly related euro-dollar market, the trend of the euro has plummeted even more. On the day of the announcement, the euro fell from 1.4146 to 1.3829, a drop of 2.02%, directly obliterating the gains brought about by the good news of the previous two days.

   But all this is not over yet. On November 1, the euro continued to fall by 1.48%, and the market's risk aversion sentiment rose sharply for a while.

   "They actually..."

When they got the news, both the French president and the German chancellor were shocked. Although they had been reminded beforehand and had sufficient psychological preparations, the two of them never expected that the accident would happen in such a way Yes, directly betting on the future of a country.

   "How could they do that?"

  The female prime minister was very puzzled, "If they were coerced by financial oligarchs, they could choose to step down, but now they want to gamble the fate of the entire country with high-sounding reasons, which is really crazy."

  After learning of the news, the French President and the German Chancellor made an urgent call.

   "If the whole thing continues, according to the current public opinion in Greece, they are very likely to withdraw from the euro zone in the referendum!"

  The French President roared, "It is not only the money of international investors that will be wasted. When they exit the euro zone, our first round of rescue funds may also be wiped out."

"exactly!"

  The female prime minister just woke up like a dream, and hurriedly said, "Hurry up and ask the ECB to freeze the current rescue funds. Before the matter is completely resolved, we can no longer continue to fill this bottomless pit with funds."

   Both sides were accompanied by staff, and soon their orders were conveyed to the ECB, and a rescue fund of 8 billion euros was immediately frozen, and then the ECB began to draft a draft to explain this behavior to the outside world.

   “What if they were actually taken out of the eurozone?”

  For the sudden situation, the German Chancellor and the French President found it difficult to adapt for a while. After the two were silent for a while, the female chancellor suddenly asked, "What will happen if they are really asked to vote in a referendum and directly withdraw from the Eurozone?"

  She has begun to seriously consider the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone.

"what?"

  The French President was shocked, "You...you...how could you think of this?"

  From the beginning to the end, what the French president thinks is how to save Greece as much as possible and avoid the spread of the debt crisis. But in Germany, the voice of opposition has never stopped, and the female chancellor has seriously considered the possibility of abandoning Greece.

   "Yes, if they really implement a referendum and pass the decision to exit the euro zone, then we will be passive!"

  The female prime minister said more and more seriously, "At least so far, we have no good way to check and balance them. Instead of letting them mess around like this, we should seriously consider the impact of Greece's exit from the euro zone."

   "I'm afraid it's not something the two of us can decide on!"

Although you are the president of a country and one of the heads of the two core countries, the French president really can't guarantee anything on this issue. He can only persuade him tactfully, "If we really want to give up Greece, we need Get the consensus of the whole of Europe!"

   "Then call a special summit meeting!"

  The female prime minister gritted her teeth and said, "Tomorrow, an emergency EU summit will be held to discuss the response to Greece's decision. If they continue to insist on the referendum, then we must prepare for them to completely leave the euro zone."

   So far, the EU and the IMF have invested less than 100 billion euros in Greece, which is still within their affordability. With such a move by the Greek authorities, it seems to the outside world that they are distributing political pressure to the people, but the two of them clearly see that besides this reason, there is another deeper factor.

   "If they exit the euro zone, then in terms of exchange rate, trade, economy and defense, we have to re-strategize to deal with the new situation."

  The female prime minister became ruthless, "All preferential treatment in terms of tariffs, immigration, trade protection, etc. will be cancelled, and punitive clauses will be imposed when necessary, so that they can taste the feeling of being abandoned by the whole of Europe."

   "This matter, there must be an explanation in the end!"

   She finally gritted her teeth and said, "Someone has to stand up and take responsibility for this, it is absolutely inexcusable!"

   Thanks to book friends Johnee, God Kalm, Brother Huan, and Sudao Duanyou for voting for the monthly ticket! At the same time, I would also like to thank book friends such as huangzhou, momoko12, manqiangchunsegongqiangliu, gengsu, etc. for voting monthly tickets a few days ago! I don’t know when it started, but the latest news only shows the rewards, but not the monthly pass. I’m really drunk... So I just saw the monthly pass that everyone voted for, and thought that the recent votes were not good. It turned out to be purely a misunderstanding, but Fortunately, I found it in time. Seeing that everyone is still actively supporting the author when the update is so weak, the author expresses his gratitude, thank you~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)