Chapter 233 Superficial Victory

  At the end of May, the weather has gradually become hotter, and Bangkok, Thailand, which is located on the equator, has entered summer earlier than most other places in the world, and the temperature has reached about 35 degrees Celsius.

  Contrary to the hot weather, there is a cool breeze everywhere inside the BOT of the Bank of Thailand, and several high-power air conditioners are making a buzzing sound, blowing cool breeze into the bustling trading room.

"Are you sure now?" A dark-skinned, thin middle-aged man stood in front of a workbench, looking at another person who was typing on the keyboard rapidly, and his right hand was pressing on the phone on, ready to answer the phone as soon as possible.

  Although the temperature in the trading room was very low, the speaker was still sweating profusely. After waiting for a long time, he still didn't get the answer he wanted. Although he was dissatisfied, he knew that it was not suitable to disturb others at this time, and he was still waiting patiently.

   "Are you sure?" After a long time, there was still no response. He obviously lost his patience, and suddenly tore off the tie on his chest, and asked cursingly.

"Although it is not certain yet, the short positions in the futures market have been decreasing for three consecutive days, and the most liquidated positions are today." After waiting for another long time, the trader who had been typing on the keyboard for a long time supported the bridge of his nose The heavy glasses replied without emotion, "Judging from today's market, a total of 8,420 Thai baht contracts have been closed, and the number of open positions is only 25,704. Although the trading volume is much higher than usual, But it’s finally back to normal.”

  The middle-aged man breathed a sigh of relief after hearing this, patted the trader on the shoulder with satisfaction, and walked out with brisk steps. He also wanted to learn about the trading situation in the foreign exchange market today.

"500 million U.S. dollars, and most of them are bought by us. Although the currency value has fluctuated slightly, it is not large. Investors who hold local currency can rest assured." The figure of the middle-aged man just appeared in the trading department of the spot exchange Just then, I heard a loud voice, revealing an unconcealable joy in the tone.

  The middle-aged man nodded, clenched his fist vigorously, swung upward suddenly, and said loudly: "Guys, I think we have won."

  After hearing his words, the many traders who had stood up for a long time fell into a deathly silence, and after a while, there was a sudden burst of cheers.

  After experiencing this period of fear, traders can finally relax. Since the international speculative capital began to aggressively attack the baht, most of these people have not had a good night's sleep. Although they cannot be blamed for the failure of the baht defense, every trader still feels the burden on him. heavy responsibility.

   After resisting the crazy selling from the spot foreign exchange market on the 14th and 15th, traders felt faintly in their hearts that they were not far from victory. It's just that they didn't expect that it would take nearly two weeks to actually confirm the arrival of this day.

After announcing countermeasures against international speculative capital, BOT and the Monetary Authority of Singapore jointly bought Thai baht in the spot exchange market. The baht of 100 million US dollars is enough to suppress the crazy counterattack from the market.

Later, the short sellers who were unwilling to fail began to aggressively attack the Thai baht futures contract, because it was no longer realistic to borrow Thai baht to sell it. Only by lowering the exchange rate of the Thai baht in the futures market can foreign capital investing in Thailand have continuous panic, and then exchange Only in this way can the "inside and outside cooperate" to completely destroy the Thai baht.

  The two sides began to fight again on the Thai baht contract in futures markets such as Singapore, London and Chicago. Although hot money once pushed the Thai baht closer to the fluctuation range stipulated by the BOT, because the exchange rate in the spot foreign exchange market is not moved at all, whenever they suppress the exchange rate of the Thai baht from 26 baht to 1 US dollar, there will always be some short sellers. Turning against the water, from short to long, and the BOT always takes action at critical moments, firmly nailing the exchange rate level above the level of 26 baht to 1 US dollar.

  After several rounds of tug-of-war, the hot money could no longer sustain it, and began to gradually reduce their positions in futures contracts, and at the same time bought Thai baht in the market to repay the loans they had borrowed. Under the double support, the currency value of the Thai baht has risen step by step, 10% higher than the lowest price, reaching the level of 25.13 Thai baht to 1 US dollar.

  Although the situation has obviously improved, the BOT staff did not dare to be careless at all, and continued to stare at the two markets for more than a week. It is not until today that they are sure that the international hot money has really withdrawn.

  The black and thin middle-aged man has no time to celebrate with these traders. He has to report the latest situation to President Malaga, and at the same time report the relevant situation to the Ministry of Finance and even the Prime Minister's Office. And when necessary, he also has the obligation to ventilate to the media.

   "So, they really retreated?" Malaka's face was calm, and he didn't seem to have the slightest emotional fluctuation, which made Vichai Sawan feel admiration for a while, thinking that Mr. President's self-cultivation skills are really good.

  Vichai Sawan is the black and thin middle-aged man just now. He is the vice president in charge of foreign exchange of BOT and also the senior aide of the Prime Minister. Most of the actions in this battle to defend the Thai baht were directed by him.

"Yes!" Although he wanted to replace Malaga, Shawan knew that he did not have the qualifications and reputation. Even if he was nominated by the prime minister, he would still be rejected by the parliament. The trading situation has returned to normal levels, and although there are still many futures contracts that have not been closed, in terms of the overall amount, it is not enough to pose a threat to our current foreign exchange reserves."

   Malaga naturally knew what this ambitious subordinate was thinking, but he didn't care at all, and even hoped that Shawan was currently sitting in his position. To be honest, he couldn't have done a better job at his job, but the Thai economy has had major problems, which are obviously not the fault of monetary policy and the central bank.

   "Since that's the case, it's up to you to announce it to the outside world!" Malaga gently rubbed her temples to relieve the faint headache. After a long time, he opened his eyes again, and said slowly to Shawan who was still standing aside.

   "What?" Shawan was taken aback for a moment, and then a surprised expression appeared on his face. You must know that announcing it to the outside world is a great achievement, and it is also an excellent opportunity to show his face. He did not expect Malaga to give him such an opportunity so lightly.

   "No problem, I must make a good publicity!" Afraid that Malaka would regret it, Shawang agreed immediately after understanding. Seeing that Malaka closed his eyes again, Shawan walked out of the president's office quickly and wisely.

Hearing the sound of the door closing, Malaga opened his eyes again, with a sneer on his face: "What an idiot, I don't know what Mr. Prime Minister likes about him, that he wants such a person to be in charge of BOT? Really? Fantastic!"

  Shawang may not know it, but Malaga knows very well that the Thai baht is not out of danger at present, and it is even more dangerous than before it was not attacked. The spot foreign exchange market has consumed a large amount of their foreign exchange reserves, and the forward market is even more terrible than the spot foreign exchange market. The amount of US dollar funds consumed in this market is even more than that in the spot foreign exchange market. After all, the spot foreign exchange market has a lot of money from Singapore. s help.

  In the past May, BOT's total foreign exchange reserves of about 30 billion US dollars consumed a total of 21 billion US dollars, accounting for two-thirds of the country's total foreign exchange reserves. Now there is only an empty shell left in Thailand. If there is another such attack, Thailand may immediately announce the depreciation.

The reason why others don’t know this, even the IMF observers who came to observe, is because Malaga and his cronies did not add foreign exchange reserves in the forward market to their balance sheets consume. What others have observed is naturally that Thailand still has a huge amount of US dollar funds, but the actual situation is just the opposite.

   Only a few people know this situation, and Shawan is not included. The Thai side hopes to dispel the idea of ​​international hot money through this concealment method. In fact, they really succeeded. Among them, Quantum Fund reduced its position by US$500 million, and Tiger Fund repaid all the borrowings in Thai baht, fully operating in the futures market.

  However, due to the deterioration of the economic environment, more and more foreign capital began to flee. Under such circumstances, Malaga really does not know how long the Thai baht can last, but it is considered temporary if it can last for a while.

  Because of capital outflows, Malaka is still facing pressure to raise interest rates, because in order to maintain the stability of the Thai baht, it is necessary to attract funds into Thailand, and raising interest rates is naturally the best way to attract capital inflows. However, the current poor financial system in Thailand does not allow a substantial increase in interest rates, because this will cause the current fragile financial system to slide further to the brink of collapse.

   Dilemma!

   Malaga has suggested to the Prime Minister to announce the devaluation at an appropriate time, but it was rejected by the highest level. The Prime Minister and the Finance Minister agreed that unless foreign exchange reserves are completely depleted, an active devaluation would be impossible, as this would minimize political pressure from neighboring countries in Southeast Asia.

  To this day, Malaga already has the intention of resigning in his heart, even though all the current situation looks very good.

At five o'clock in the afternoon of Bangkok time, BOT's press conference was held in the conference hall. Shawan, who had a new look in his clothes and hairstyle, faced many TV cameras and microphones, and announced with great confidence: "The attack of international hot money on the Thai baht has failed. At present, the Thai baht The currency value is stable and there is no risk of depreciation.”

As soon as the joyful words were finished, Shawang immediately changed his tone and criticized the international hot money unceremoniously: "In addition, we warn those international hot money who try to attack the Thai baht, especially hedge funds like Quantum Fund! What you did is not as simple as impacting a country's currency system, but destroying a country's economic foundation! If you dare to commit another crime, it will not be as simple as losing 500 million U.S. dollars!"

  He specifically pointed out the losses of hedge funds, which were estimated by their insiders. Of course, some people estimated that it was 300 million US dollars, but who knows the exact figure? Shawang is naturally based on a relatively large amount.

   These remarks not only caused an uproar among the audience in front of the TV, but also at the scene. Regardless of the discipline of the venue, the reporters who reported the news crowded in front of Shawan and asked questions about hedge funds.

   Compared with the general financial industry, hedge funds have always been shrouded in a halo of mystery. Now that there is finally an opportunity to get a glimpse of what's going on, how can these reporters miss it?

  …

  In Hong Kong, there are also many people watching in front of the TV at this time, including Jones, an economist at Quantum Fund in Hong Kong. When he heard Shawan bluntly named Quantum Fund, he was both surprised and a little angry, because in fact Quantum Fund had reduced its position in the market, and now all the spearheads were directed at them.

  (end of this chapter)