Chapter 234 Seeing through the scam

The most worrying situation within the entire Quantum Fund finally happened. Because their reputation in the foreign exchange market, especially in currency attacks, is too great, when there is a large-scale attack on a country’s currency, the market will respond regardless of the facts. It is believed that Quantum Fund was deeply involved in it, and even played a leading role.

This kind of pretentious thing has happened repeatedly since Soros personally confirmed the sterling crisis in 1992. Even the 94 Mexican financial crisis, which Quantum Fund did not participate in at all, was planted on the heads of Soros, Druckenmiller and others .

Now this situation is beginning to play out again in Asia across the ocean. Although it is not known how the Thai side "knew" the losses of the so-called hedge funds, Jones is worried that as the currency crisis continues, Quantum Fund will have more burdens. black pot.

   It is not accurate to say that it is a "black pot", because the Quantum Fund has indeed established a large-scale position in the Thai baht, but their original intention was to attract the attention of the Thai government, and then let them actively choose to depreciate. But obviously, the Thai government regards this behavior as a hostile provocation, and therefore made the opposite plan to Quantum Fund's idea, that is, to fully maintain the currency value of the Thai baht.

   It is hard to tell whether this situation is the stupidity of the Thai government or the greed of the Quantum Fund. In short, due to the differences in the judgment of the economic situation and the different angles of consideration between the two sides, the relationship between the two has now evolved into a situation of extreme tension.

Quantum Fund will not take the initiative to explain anything, because openness and transparency are taboos in the hedge fund industry, even if they have not established or even a penny position in the Thai baht, let alone they still hold a large number of short sales position.

  When Jones called London, Soros was not as angry as he expected, but said lightly: "I will go to Hong Kong in September, and I will clarify all the rumors then."

  There will be an annual meeting of the World Bank and the World Monetary Fund in Hong Kong in September. At that time, Soros plans to make a high-profile appearance and explain to the media the original intention of shorting the Thai baht.

It's just that he didn't know that after just two short months, the entire Southeast Asian region was in chaos. By the time Soros explained, he had already become the target of verbal criticism from the people of Southeast Asian countries, even politicians. He uttered threatening words.

  …

Almost at the same time, there was also a group of Americans waiting in front of the TV to watch Shawan’s press conference. Although it was late at night in Eastern Time, this group of energetic traders was still in high spirits and was not tired at all. look. When Shawan said that the speculative capital loss reached $500 million, the traders booed loudly.

   "Nonsense, I really don't know how this guy became an official of the Central Bank!" Immediately there were voices questioning Shawan's professionalism.

   "His knowledge of finance is probably still in the 1980s, no, it might be in the 70s..." Another voice immediately echoed, causing the traders to roar with laughter.

"Jimmy, I think your level is good enough to take up this position!" A senior trader turned around and found a junior trader who was hard at work still staring at the computer screen, so he walked over and took a picture. Over his shoulder, he teased teasingly.

  His name is Harvey Capek, and he is a senior trader in charge of emerging markets. East Asia is one of his jurisdictions. Recently, his department just recruited a rookie researcher named Jimmy Hudson, who is usually responsible for buying and selling coffee, delivering documents, and sorting out data, which are tedious and not very technical.

   "What?" Jimmy raised his head and asked in confusion.

   Seeing that he was so ignorant, the speaker couldn't help curling his lips, and was about to turn around and leave when he heard the trader named Jimmy whisper, "Hey, something's wrong!"

"What's wrong?" Harvey stopped the steps he had just taken, looked at Jimmy sideways, and found that his face did not seem to be joking, so he lowered his head and leaned in front of the computer screen. There is nothing special, just asked a question casually.

"Look!" Jimmy tapped the computer keyboard quickly, entered an instruction, screened out some items from the numerous data strips, and pointed to Harvey, "This is the increase in Thai baht in the Singapore market from January to June. The statistical data of the contract are all obtained from public data sources. Since January, HSBC, Standard Chartered in Hong Kong, Chase in the United States, and Nomura Securities in Japan have all increased their holdings of short-term short-term Thai baht. The number of contract lots is about 1897 in total.”

   "And then?" Harvey's heart was moved after hearing this number, thinking that this is a rare and big deal, and he doesn't know if he has continued to hold it until now, after all, it has been so long.

"No, they didn't reduce these positions." Jimmy seemed to sense what Harvey was thinking, and slowly shook his head in denial, "The strange thing is that these positions have not been reduced. On the contrary, they have increased recently. I have held a lot, and it is almost approaching the total number of 2,000 contracts.”

"HSBC, Standard Chartered, Nomura?" Harvey repeated these three names several times, and asked to himself: "The focus of these investment banks is in Asia, including Hong Kong and Tokyo. Contact. No, could it be said that funds from Hong Kong and Japan have long been eyeing the Thai baht?"

"Very likely!" Jimmy nodded, "And there is no news about Asian capital shorting the Thai baht at all in the market, either these capitals are not from Asia at all, or they have extremely strict precautions, and there is no news at all. "

   Although not watching the TV, Jimmy obviously already knew what was going on. His immediate reaction was that Asian capital is so terrifying, and its influence on public opinion is so great that it does not leak water. This makes his young heart, which has lived in an environment of free public opinion since childhood, tremble a little.

   "No, no, no..." Harvey suddenly spit out a series of negative words, as if he disagreed with Jimmy's opinion. Jimmy was taken aback for a moment, looking at the excited Harvey in puzzlement, not understanding what he was denying for a moment.

   After half a day, Harvey's eyes refocused, obviously wanting to understand something. All I saw was that he patted Jimmy on the shoulder suddenly, and boasted loudly: "Good boy, I really have you!" After saying that, he ran upstairs without looking back.

Due to the large number of people in the trading room, there are several spacious rooms downstairs dedicated to them, while the upstairs space is for senior management, that is, those fund managers and senior traders who are qualified to manage funds. .

  As soon as he opened the door, Harvey found that the meeting room was full of voices. Obviously, the managers were having a meeting to discuss the statement made by Thailand just now. By convention, traders can participate in such meetings and fully express their views. However, because they are responsible for investments in different regions and varieties, traders will not attend meetings of other groups at will.

Looking in through the clear glass, Harvey found that in addition to Julian Robertson, there were several economists, strategists and several analysts who were good at macroeconomics from Tiger Fund. He knew that they were discussing the Thai market just now. side's statement.

   Fearing that they would make any decision before that, Harvey pushed the opening wall bravely, only to find that the people in the conference room were not discussing, and instead there was silence.

   Julian Robertson was very annoyed. In fact, he was a guy who was afraid of chaos. He had always been jealous of Soros' reputation and status on Wall Street, and he was also jealous that the scale of funds he managed had always surpassed himself. Although he and other capitals successfully forced the franc to expand its volatility in 1993, compared with Soros who defeated the British pound, it still seemed a bit insufficient.

   Now, the Thai side actually only named Quantum Fund and did not mention his Tiger Fund, which made him very upset. We must know that this kind of fame can attract more investors for him to a large extent. Under the temptation of this kind of interest, what can you do if you offend a small country that doesn't know how far away it is?

"Julian, let's retreat. Thailand still has so much foreign exchange reserves and has a tough attitude. We should not confront them anymore!" A senior partner said slowly. What he didn't say was that the recent Time because they have to maintain positions, they have lost a lot of money.

  Robertson turned his head to look at the crowd, and found that many of them nodded, obviously agreeing with what they just said. According to the information he got from Druckenmiller, Quantum Fund has cut a lot of positions, which obviously shakes him a lot.

  But Julian Robertson does not intend to give up on this. After withdrawing from the futures market, his position can continue to be supported, although the daily interest has reached an astonishing millions of dollars. It's just that he couldn't convince other people at the moment, so he was caught in a dilemma for a while.

   This is why Harvey just entered the meeting room and found a silence. At this moment, he could no longer care about the reason, and after clearing his throat, he said loudly: "We can't give up our position in Thai baht. Thailand may not have that much foreign exchange reserves!"

   "Do you know what you're talking about?" Julian Robertson was the first to react, looking at the senior trader in disbelief, with a hint of reproach in his tone.

   "I know exactly what I'm talking about, Mr. Julian." Harvey straightened his back and replied loudly. At this time, he was calm and unhurried, his eyes exuded amazing confidence, and he did not show the slightest timidity or retreat under Julian's oppressive eyes, and he was completely confident.

  At this moment, Harvey only felt that this might be the highlight moment in his life!

   As soon as the words came out, everyone was shocked, and everyone was waiting for Harvey's next words.

   Harvey nodded in satisfaction, and then said something that surprised everyone even more: "I think the Bank of Thailand deceived us. No, not only deceived us, but also deceived the whole world!"

  (end of this chapter)