Chapter 247 The Tiger Fund of Recognition

   Needless to say, this semi-academic research report is naturally intended to help Quantum Fund wash away the current market's negative views on it.

In Soros's world-famous attack on the British pound, he and his team have not been subjected to such harsh criticism. This is because firstly, the entire market understands the problem of the British pound, and secondly, their capital scale cannot affect it at all. to the UK real economy.

But now in Southeast Asia, there is a wave of attacks on international hedge funds. This is not only because they have established a position of only three billion US dollars, but this kind of currency attack will cause a heavy blow to their real economy. Although their real economy has had major problems before.

  In all fairness, even if Druckenmiller and his team don't take action, there will be other institutions taking action against Thailand's current bad economy. In fact, the Tiger Fund of Paul Tudor Jones and Julian Robertson, who is no less famous than Soros, was also deeply involved in this currency attack against the Thai baht.

Just the positions of the three institutions add up to more than seven billion US dollars, not to mention the foreign exchange trading departments of multinational banks with stronger financial strength, and the foreign exchange trading departments of Wall Street investment banks that have never been well-known. .

   No agency wants to offend a country!

   Quantum Fund is no exception!

  But precisely because of Soros’s reputation, when there is a currency crisis in a certain area, people’s first reaction is often that Quantum Fund did it. This habitual thinking puts Quantum Fund under heavy psychological pressure.

   Rodney Jones wants to reverse this unfavorable situation.

The best way is naturally to attribute the deterioration of the whole situation to the ruling government. In fact, the cause of today's bad results is indeed their lack of understanding of the changes in the overall international economic situation. This is why Soros's famous "fly Eggs that don’t bite seamlessly” argument.

  Just in this way, it is confirmed that Quantum Fund participated in shorting the Thai baht. Rodney Jones couldn't make up his mind for a while. He thought for a long time in his office in Hong Kong and called the headquarters in New York. He knew that at this time, most of the high-level people still hadn't rested.

  …

  Tiger Fund.

  It's been two weeks since they started raising money in the Treasury market and they've only shorted $500 million in bonds.

   "Not enough! Not enough!" Listening to the fund manager's report, Julian Robertson shook his head and sighed, obviously not satisfied with the current efforts to raise funds.

  Because the yield rate of the bond market has a great relationship with the benchmark interest rate, especially the national bond market guaranteed by national credit. Compared with investment products in other markets, treasury bond price fluctuations are extremely small, which is why treasury bond futures generally have dozens or even hundreds of times leverage.

  Under the condition that the benchmark interest rate and its expectations are stable, the investment in treasury bonds is mainly for long-term holdings, and there is inevitably a lack of liquidity. Therefore, when there is a large-scale sell-off in the market, the first reaction of the participants in this market is that there is a problem with the fundamentals of bonds, but then they find that this is not the case.

  The capital market in the United States has an extremely professional division of labor, and there are also many predators in the bond market. When the news came that the hedge fund had lost the Thai baht, and then the yield in the bond market rose significantly, the two things were connected, and soon someone understood that it was a hedge fund raising funds, and the gossip began to spread like crazy . In this case, major buyers in the bond market are beginning to wait patiently.

Time may be money for hedge funds, but it is not a problem for funds investing in the treasury bond market. Their customers are risk-averse compared to hedge fund customers. Even a 5% return in a year is not a problem. satisfy them. Because there is no requirement for absolute returns, these funds have enough patience.

  This is why Tiger Fund started selling U.S. Treasuries in the market, and only now has raised a mere half a billion dollars.

"Those institutions have already discovered our intention. I am afraid that it is difficult to have liquidity at the current market price." The traders in charge of bond trading also looked helpless. In this market, they are not in charge, and they have more funds than them Giants abound.

   "Yeah!" Julian Robertson sighed, he was also helpless, that is not their home field, "How about the Thai baht?"

Billy King is the person in charge of keeping an eye on the Asian market. When he heard Julian Robertson's question, he shook his head slightly and said: "Thailand first fired the finance minister who had been supporting the baht, and then the prime minister came out and made a statement again. It stated that it has the ability and confidence to ensure that the Thai baht will not depreciate. But our analysis is that Thailand is likely to experience a shortage of foreign exchange reserves.”

After a pause, he continued: "However, they are still intervening in the major currency markets, as is the spot exchange market. The forward price has also returned to around 26, which is a positive signal. But in the spot exchange market , There has been a lack of liquidity for two consecutive days, and our judgment is that a new round of offense has begun.”

Having said that, he looked at Julian Robertson's obviously ugly face, and tentatively said: "The most important thing now is that if we fail to expand our position in time, even if the Thai baht falls in the end, we will have to pay an extremely high cost." .Should the position be reduced appropriately? It is said that the Quantum Fund has reduced the position of 500 million U.S. dollars."

   Regarding this kind of currency attack, although the major hedge funds cannot fully disclose the information, they have not deliberately concealed it from each other, because they all know that the interests of both parties are the same.

But Julian Robertson's attention was obviously not here. He was keenly aware of a phenomenon Billy King mentioned, and before he finished speaking, he immediately asked: "What did you just say? The market has appeared for two days. The phenomenon of lack of liquidity? The spot foreign exchange market?"

"Yes, on the day the Minister of Finance resigned, there was a lack of liquidity in the foreign exchange market, but it was our trading time. A similar situation occurred last night, but there was a rebound in the foreign exchange market. Obviously, the Prime Minister of Thailand His speech restored a little confidence in the market." Although Billy King was a little surprised, he still replied calmly.

"The resignation of the finance minister...lack of liquidity...the prime minister's public speech..." Julian Robertson repeated these seemingly irrelevant things, and suddenly asked after a long time: "In addition to reaffirming his support for the Thai baht, what else did the Thai prime minister say?" ?”

"..." Billy King was taken aback for a moment, but he thought that Julian Robertson's reaction was a little too big. Of course, it was difficult for him to say this. "Naturally explain to the outside world why the Minister of Finance resigned at this time. The wording is to be responsible for the recent economic downturn in Thailand, which is completely a diplomatic password, and no more information can be read."

   "No!" Julian Robertson yelled, "There must be a connection, otherwise the Thai Prime Minister would not have made a fuss and reiterated his support for the baht. What happened to the investigation on the forward position of the baht?"

  His reaction was indeed a bit big, causing all the managers present to put away their disapproving attitudes and instead seriously think about the correlation.

  Most successful fund managers have a keen intuition for every unusual sign in the market, which is also an important factor for their continued success. Julian Robertson is such a person. Although his main performance is in the stock market, it does not mean that he does not have a similar sense of macroeconomics and the foreign exchange market.

"In terms of the long-term, according to the information sent back from Thailand, the situation is very pessimistic. The one-year US dollar loans that flowed into Thai financial institutions in the form of forwards alone reached 15 billion US dollars, which is not an outflow. Capital. There is reason to believe that the news that Thailand still has 30 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves is totally unbelievable." Billy King thought for a long time before saying expressionlessly.

  As soon as his words came out, there was a burst of exclamation, and almost everyone had an incredible expression on their faces. It never occurred to the people who worked in hedge funds that the IMF's data could be wrong, especially when they looked at the country's balance sheet.

Although the IMF is nothing in the eyes of these hedge fund employees, it is an international financial institution after all, and the relevant data released will certainly not be aimless, just like the employment data released by the US Department of Labor, it will become a reference for the market How can such data be wrong?

  Billy King curled his lips slightly, obviously anticipating their reaction, which is why he thought for a long time before speaking.

"If this is the case, then someone must have discovered this fact earlier than us. Maybe they are leading the short-selling in the market now!" Julian Robertson obviously had expected this matter long ago. When Billy King said At that time, he didn't show any surprise at all. Instead, he quickly thought about the correlation between this incident and the recent incidents, and immediately analyzed a conclusion that was extremely consistent with the facts.

   "In terms of national debt, I am afraid that it will not be cleared in the short term. I will use these assets as collateral to borrow funds from the bank as soon as possible, and try my best to short the Thai baht. This time, the target amount is 2 billion U.S. dollars."

  Others quickly deliberated on several relevant details, and finally felt that what Julian Robertson said was the most likely. After confirming the final plan and the corresponding division of labor, Tiger Fund began a new round of short selling of Thai baht.

  Although Julian Robertson reacted quickly, the baht was already in jeopardy at this time. Zhongshi’s selling behavior regardless of cost caused institutions including the foreign exchange trading department of commercial banks to follow suit. In Thailand, consortiums with investments saw the lack of liquidity of Thai baht for two days and began to worry about Thai financial institutions. The repayment ability of the Thai baht has reached a climax on June 15.

  Tiger Fund entered the market late. As a result, they only sold about 30 million U.S. dollars in Thai baht, and the Thai baht could no longer hold.

   Thank you very much for the book friends Ga Geli, napoleon, let me think about it, Shufei, lubo98, and Afei for voting for monthly support! The author tries his best to code, and looks forward to gaining the support of more book friends, and at the same time hopes that the subscription can also be strong~

  

  

  (end of this chapter)