Chapter 248 Tripartite Force (1)

   I have to say that Julian Robertson's judgment is very accurate. When the traders of Tiger Fund called the foreign exchange brokers, the news of the large-scale financing of the hedge fund giant quickly spread to every corner of the market, and then the multinational banks with Thai baht trading business also received calls to borrow Thai baht, so The foreign exchange trading department of the commercial bank also knew about this matter.

  Similar to the role played by the Quantum Fund during the sterling crisis in 1992, the Tiger Fund is also one of several key points of market attention, and its importance is not even inferior to the Quantum Fund. In terms of Quantum Fund, there has been no sign of operation for a long time, and the market has begun to turn its attention to another giant, hoping to follow Tiger Fund to operate.

Therefore, when the news of Tiger Fund's re-entry came out, the big and small giants who shorted the Thai baht in the entire foreign exchange market were boiling. They heard the signal that a new round of attack was about to sound, and all of them became extremely active, and began to gear up one after another. Get leveraged and get ready to go big.

   In terms of market influence, Tianyu Fund is far behind these old-fashioned hedge funds, and it is far from achieving the effect of a crowd of responders in the market. But the advantage of Tianyu Fund is that they have an amazing forward-looking fund manager who can always appear in the right place at the right time.

Although the United States has noticed it now, Zhongshi has sold about 100 billion baht, which is converted into about 4 billion U.S. dollars. A measly billion-dollar baht in hand.

   Just Tianyu Fund alone has swept away 4 billion US dollars of foreign exchange liquidity from the market, of which BOT's foreign exchange reserves probably account for more than half. In addition, the abnormal changes in the brokerage channel caused a group of commercial banks to follow the lead of Tianyu Fund, and also consumed part of the foreign currency funds in the market that were traded with Thai baht, including Japanese yen, British pound and even Hong Kong dollar.

  Although the Thai baht is mainly linked to the US dollar, other major international reserve currencies are also linked. Therefore, when there is a problem with the Thai baht, as long as the currency that can short the Thai baht is bought, the corresponding Thai baht is sold.

"Really? They have already taken action, what is the scale?" Druckenmiller received a call from a foreign exchange trader just after the meeting. Reporting the changes in his colleagues made his heart skip a beat.

  The trader couldn't tell clearly on the phone. In fact, he couldn't find out more information in such a short period of time. After all, the positions of each hedge fund are top secret, and they won't leak half a cent at all. But these funds will appear in the market after all, and the approximate size can be estimated.

  For Tiger Fund, Druckenmiller has a feeling of sympathy and a little wariness. After all, colleagues are enemies. If the performance of Tiger Fund exceeds that of Quantum Fund, their investors may choose to redeem their shares and invest in Tiger Fund instead.

  But Druckenmiller is not worried about a similar situation happening, he also reserved a back move.

After walking back and forth in the spacious office for a few times, Druckenmiller made up his mind and dialed the number in Hong Kong: "Rodney, it's me. I just received the news that there will be a big move on the other side, and the size of the funds will vary. It’s big, but it could lead to a new round of attacks.”

The person on the other end of the phone is Rodney Jones, who is based in Hong Kong. He is an economist at the Asia Office of Quantum Fund. He is writing an article. The main content is that the main cause of the current currency crisis is not hedge funds, but It's the stupid Thai government. Regarding this article, he reported to the senior management of Quantum Fund.

"Really? Then I have to hurry up. But there are some phenomena that you may not know, that is, the foreign exchange accounts of several commercial banks in Hong Kong have sold a large amount of Thai baht in the past two days, and the scale of funds is larger than our position. It is not clear whether it is the foreign exchange trading department of the commercial bank or their customers. But I have reason to believe that this is an attack on the Thai baht, not a simple settlement account, because the amount is too huge."

   Rodney Jones is based in Hong Kong and has also developed some contacts. He has heard about the big moves of several famous banks in Hong Kong. When he heard the news, he didn't take it seriously at first, but after selling for two consecutive days, he gradually realized that something was wrong.

   "Really?" Druckenmiller frowned, thought hard for a long time, and suddenly burst out laughing. Since it's a short sale, isn't it an ally, so why bother where the funds come from? "Don't worry about him, maybe it's the funds from the UK. What we need to do now is to wash us from the moral blame. Our position is enough to maintain this year's excess returns, if the Thai baht depreciates."

   Rodney Jones heard something, it seems that he is not going to continue shorting the Thai baht. He couldn't help being a little anxious, and as soon as Druckenmiller finished speaking, he couldn't wait to ask: "Should we stop shorting? According to my estimates here, at least 3 billion US dollars have flowed out from Thailand in the past two days." foreign exchange reserves."

  As for Thailand’s so-called foreign exchange reserves of 30 billion U.S. dollars, they didn’t believe it, and they also conducted some investigations in private. Like Tiger Fund, they found through the investigation of the forward positions of commercial banks that Thailand had concealed a large loss of foreign exchange reserves. According to their internal estimates, BOT currently only has foreign exchange reserves of about 10 billion to 20 billion US dollars.

   Except for the high-level people who have access to this data in the BOT, I am afraid that no one else knows the specific figures. During the second round of attacks in May, no one knew how many foreign exchange traders participated in the market, and no one knew exactly how much Thailand’s foreign exchange reserves were exhausted. Then Thailand began to fight back, and how much foreign exchange was left in the process It was also unknown when traders abandoned previous operations to go long on the baht, so they can only estimate a partial range.

"If you are short, you will naturally continue to short." If Rodney Jones is opposite Druckenmiller, you will find a mysterious smile on his face at this time. After giving Jones a reassurance, He continued into the microphone meaningfully: "We not only need to increase short-selling, but also put this charge on others, even our opponents and colleagues."

"Adversary? Colleagues?" Rodney Jones was obviously relieved when he heard that the Quantum Foundation continued to short the Thai baht, but Druckenmiller's next sentence puzzled him again, "Push to On the same side, you mean..." He repeated Druckenmiller's words twice, and then he realized it.

"Not bad!" Druckenmiller immediately interrupted Rodney Jones, preventing him from continuing, "The content of this aspect is just added to that article, we don't need to do anything, just wait and see The market reacts."

   Rodney Jones laughed and said, "I see."

  …

The time came to June 15th, the daytime of the Eastern Hemisphere, and the Asian trading hours began. Due to the strong rebound of the Thai baht in the European and American markets and the expectation that the Bank of Thailand would dare the market, the exchange rate of the Thai baht in the Singapore market was opened at 25.89. High price, this price is already a new high in recent times.

  As soon as this price came out, it immediately gave a shot of stimulant to the sluggish Thai baht market. The long side was overjoyed and began to chase the rise in the futures exchange market and sell dollars in the spot exchange market in order to arbitrage double exchange rate differences. The transactions in the spot foreign exchange market, which lacked liquidity at night, were also obviously active. Commercial banks in Europe and the United States began to buy and sell Thai baht frequently. However, they naturally did not match at night buying prices, but sold Thai baht at the instant exchange rate. , hoping to earn the exchange rate difference between the low price of Thai baht and the high price.

   At the Bank of Thailand, when the Thai baht exchange rate was quoted at a high price, Malaga breathed a sigh of relief. The large loss of foreign exchange reserves in the past two days has put him under tremendous pressure. Although Mr. Prime Minister’s timely speech has shared part of it, the reality is still very urgent. He has just borrowed two billion U.S. dollars in short-term financial assistance from other countries. The exchange rate of the Thai baht is maintained a little longer.

  Looking at the market opening today, I am afraid that not only do BOTs not need to enter the market to intervene, but they can also sell some Thai baht to recover part of their US dollar reserves. Thinking of this, he felt excited. Yes, it has been a long time since he bought US dollars. If this situation can happen a few more times, the Thai baht may still be able to hold.

However, his dream has not been long, and a large number of Thai baht selling orders emerged in the market. At the beginning, they were sold at the market price, but due to the large volume, the transaction was not smooth, and soon these prices began to be lower than one basis point. The transaction speed was significantly accelerated, and the exchange rate in the spot foreign exchange market was soon suppressed to around 26.93.

Seeing this situation, BOT traders naturally would not sit idly by, and began to buy Thai baht at a low level. The two sides started a fight at the position of 25.95. Floating around this price, it is obvious that the two sides are fighting very fiercely.

  When seeing this situation, those foreign exchange traders who were still focused on doing long began to mutter in their hearts, and they all estimated whether this was a short-term surprise attack or a prelude to a large-scale attack. It's just that they hesitated so much that many people missed the time to escape. Before they could see the situation clearly, there was another short-selling fund in the market. This time the selling was even stronger, almost hundreds of millions of baht were thrown out, and the baht fell again in just a few minutes. By two basis points, the instant quote was at 25.96 baht to the dollar.

   has approached the legal limit.

In another market, the situation is not optimistic. The futures exchange long buy orders hanging in the front are almost wiped out in the attitude of the autumn wind sweeping the fallen leaves, and then a large amount of sell orders are thrown out, and the Thai baht contract is sold in just a few minutes. It reached the position of 26, and there is a faint tendency to break down again.

   Thank you very much for the book friend syaes who voted for monthly support!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)