Chapter 269 This is an economic war

In September, when the annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were held in Hong Kong, the mainland institutions in Hong Kong also received instructions from Yanjing, requiring them to use funds at an appropriate time to deal with possible crises in the Hong Kong stock market and financial markets .

Because Hong Kong has returned to China for less than two months, if there is a sharp decline in the economy during this period, foreign media will have sufficient capital to accuse China of its adverse influence on Hong Kong. A great opportunity to discredit China.

  Economy can never be separated from politics.

On September 11, the chief executive of Hong Kong delivered a speech in New York. First, he stated that Hong Kong would not abandon the policy of **** to the US dollar. At the same time, he also talked about the fact that if mainland China is affected by the currency depreciation in Southeast Asia and reduces its international competitive advantage, Hong Kong will also will be adversely affected. Ultimately, though, his comments were positively optimistic: The fundamentals of Hong Kong's economy remain strong and attractive for Japanese capital. But at the same time, it warns that international currency speculators have not given up their attacks on Hong Kong's currency system.

   On the same day, encouraged by the chief executive's speech, the Hang Seng Index rose 162 points to close at 14470 points, an increase of 1.13%.

  …

   "Zhong Sheng, why did the chief executive's speech specifically mention Japan?" Ma Jiarui took a newspaper of the day, marked the words of the chief executive about Hong Kong attracting Japanese funds, put it in front of Zhong Shi, and asked loudly.

  Because the staff of Tianyu Fund intensively researched the several regions and countries mentioned by Zhong Shi during this period, the atmosphere in the whole company seemed very cold, and usually only a few people were seen working in the office. Therefore, even if the voice of speaking is a bit loud, it is nothing in this empty office area.

  At this time, Ma Jiarui has become a popular person around Zhong Shi, and the problems he sees tend to be macroscopic, and there is no need to conduct field research. Now he is a half-fund assistant, responsible for collecting real-time information from various regional governments.

Zhong Shi raised his head from a pile of messy documents, his eyes were red, obviously he hadn't slept well all night, after hearing Ma Jiarui's question, he lit a cigarette unhurriedly, deeply After taking a puff and blowing out the curling smoke, he was refreshed, and then asked back: "You can talk about your judgment!"

"It's hard to say!" Ma Jiarui scratched his head and organized his language for a long time before saying, "Japan's move is to protect their investment in Southeast Asia, and at the same time to maintain its position as the leader in the region. Because Japan's economy has been growing rapidly. This region dominates, and has been subject to the influence of the European and American trade agreements in recent years, so the focus of investment is on regions with strong economic growth. But what I don’t understand is why the Japanese government supports the government of this region so much , According to public information, after countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand announced the free float of their currencies, the Bank of Japan provided at least US$1 billion in assistance, and this extremely concerned attitude makes people suspicious.”

"More than that!" Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, and then he continued, "In July, the Thai Finance Minister visited Japan, and the two sides proposed a plan to assist Thailand: the first is that Japan and Thailand jointly intervene to prevent The Thai baht fell further; the second is that the Bank of Japan provides at least US$40 billion in loans to the BOT to help them out of the current predicament; the third is to put pressure on the IMF, Asian Development Bank, Japan Export Bank and other institutions to make them Provide financial assistance to Thailand. Even under the influence of Japan, we in Hong Kong, Singapore and even mainland China have also participated in this rescue operation.”

   "What is the purpose of Japan doing this?" Ma Jiarui has seen all these news, but he has been wondering why Japan is so enthusiastic?

"Benefits! First of all, the benefits are affirmed!" Zhong Shi showed a disapproving expression on his face, "Secondly, the Southeast Asian region has slowly entered the orbit of Japan in the past few years. The most important trading partners of most of their regions and countries are not The United States, but Japan. Although the current trade relationship between Japan and these regions is a surplus, judging from the trend of Southeast Asian countries in recent years, this surplus relationship will soon be reversed, that is to say, in the next few years Within a short period of time, the trade relationship between Japan and Southeast Asian countries will turn from a surplus to a deficit."

"This expected deficit will balance the surpluses of Japan and Europe and the United States, making the Japanese economy gradually reduce its dependence on the European and American markets. The large-scale currency depreciation that is happening now is preventing this from happening, due to the collective purchasing power of currencies in Southeast Asia. As a result, the import of Japanese goods will shrink sharply. The trade deficit Japan wants cannot be realized in the short term. Backing down a lot, that's the first explanation of why Japan is so keen."

"The second explanation is that due to the depreciation of currencies in Southeast Asia and the flight of capital, the final flow of these capitals is not to Europe and the United States, but to the relatively geographically close Japanese market. That is why Japan is so keen to help these countries. By giving A good impression of capital will attract capital inflows, which will not only enable them to better resist financial risks, but also bring a boost to the current sluggish Japanese economy."

"The third reason, and the least likely one, is that Japan would rather send a large amount of capital to Thailand than open their markets to the outside world. Well maintain their economic clout across the region. The narrative is that Japan intends to make Southeast Asia their reservation and backyard, much like South America has with the U.S.”

"In any case, the power of major powers in the region has been involved here, and it is not an exaggeration to say that the entire world is looking at this region. This may be related to the trend of the world economy in the next few decades and the redistribution of power in Asia in the future. And we , although it cannot play a very important role in this economic war, but as the saying goes, '********,********', no matter what, we must defend Hong Kong."

   This is the first time that Zhong Shi has confided his thoughts and talked about his grand ambitions to others.

Regardless of the shocked expression on Ma Jiarui's face, Zhong Shi continued: "The current Hong Kong stock market is extremely weird. When there is a sign of a sell-off, there is a wave of funds that take the initiative to suppress this sign. I don't know if you have noticed, except In the stock market, there are similar behaviors in warrants, options, futures and futures options, which means that someone is secretly supporting the market. Obviously, this kind of behavior cannot be done by the Hong Kong government!"

Since Hong Kong is a free market, the government only plays a guiding role in economic activities, and it is not easy to directly intervene in the market. It can only stimulate the economy through indirect measures such as finance, taxation, and investment, because the government itself is only a management department rather than a corporate role.

  In most of the rest of the world that embraces the free market, the government plays much the same role. Even in countries or regions where the neoliberal economy is prevalent, government-owned enterprises (state-owned enterprises) only play a role in the market that is not for profit, but only protects people's livelihood, and does not compete with the market for profit. Because once this kind of enterprise competes with purely private enterprises, the role played by the enterprise is very embarrassing. It is a referee and a player, which is easy to attract criticism and easily make the market unfair.

  However, when the Hong Kong stock market fell most severely, the Hong Kong government was forced to abandon its reputation as the world's freest market and openly intervened in the market, which drew criticism from some famous Western economists. Of course, there is no way around this, otherwise international hedge funds can really capture Hong Kong.

  These are things for later.

After hearing what Zhong Shi said about saving the market, Ma Jiarui showed a strange expression on his face. After thinking for a long time, he said hesitantly: "Zhong Sheng, according to our current capital scale, it may be too late to talk about saving the market." It's too early!"

   "..." Zhong Shi nodded helplessly. I have to admit that what Ma Jiarui said has some truth. Tianyu Fund is fully invested. The current capital scale is only tens of billions of dollars, which is about 77 billion Hong Kong dollars. This kind of capital scale is equivalent to the overall market value of a large listed company. It is a bit of a dream to save the Hong Kong market at this time.

"However, you also understand that the market value in circulation and the total market value are not the same thing, and our current capital scale is still growing. Besides us, there is another force, that is, the one just mentioned Funds, if we cooperate well, I believe we will be able to hold up part of the market." After a while, Zhong Shi explained again.

   "After talking for a long time, you haven't said who the funds are and where they come from?" Ma Jiarui was a little confused.

A smile appeared on Zhong Shi's face, and he said after a long time: "If I'm not wrong, the funds come from Huaxia. This economic war has already spread to the mainland of China, and the government will not sit idly by. Although the current All kinds of spearheads are pointing at Japan, but soon, the focus of the attack will become China."

   Thanks to the book friend Mouse Fei for voting for the monthly ticket! Thanks for the reward again from Demon Dragon Warrior!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)