Chapter 270 Tiger Out

"It doesn't seem like we can get involved?" Ma Jiarui smacked his lips, but finally couldn't hold back, "The two big countries are wrestling in Asia, if we rashly join it, I'm afraid we will be killed in no time." Crushed to pieces. Zhong Sheng, do you really intend to intervene?"

Zhong Shi touched his chin, with a slightly embarrassed expression on his face, and said: "I still have this awareness, and I definitely can't confront them openly. But if this kind of confrontation only stays at the economic and financial level, we It is our duty to go head-on. After all, our behavior can be interpreted as investment behavior, because they also attack in this way."

   "Do you still remember a report in the "Wall Street Journal" in mid-August?" After thinking for a while, Zhong Shi asked back.

   "Of course I remember, how could I forget such a famous article?" Ma Jiarui replied without thinking about it, his expression unchanged.

In mid-August, the well-known "Wall Street Journal" published an article on the Asian currency crisis, in which it praised Soros and others for what they had done in Asia, calling it a "feat" and "success", Even in the article, it also revealed that Hong Kong is the next target of attack.

What is even more strange is that when the report was published on this day, there were unusual fluctuations in the exchange rate market in Hong Kong the next day. Although it seems to be just a tentative attack, it is undoubtedly the result of international speculative capital's attack on the "Wall Street Journal". "Response to relevant reports.

This article caused an uproar at the time, and the newly established Hong Kong government was even more on the verge of a formidable enemy, always monitoring the movements of international speculative funds in the foreign exchange market, and giving them a head-on blow when they first appeared, making international speculative funds Returning without success, it continued to wreak havoc in Southeast Asia.

  Although Soros claimed that the Hong Kong dollar was not the target of the attack and that the Asian currency crisis was drawing to a close, Zhong Shi knew very well what might happen in the future, so he sneered at Soros’s attempt to cover up the issue and was very disdainful.

"Combining this article, together with Soros's public statements before, can only illustrate one possibility: that is, the current actions against the Hong Kong dollar are not led by Soros, so he can't wait to talk about the upcoming actions against the Hong Kong dollar. Put aside the relationship. This may be to curry favor with the Hong Kong government, or it may be a preparation for a larger-scale attack in the future. In short, Quantum Fund will definitely participate in actions against the Hong Kong financial market." Zhong Shi thought for a while, and he was decisive Said.

Ma Jiarui nodded, indicating that he agreed with Zhong Shi's idea, but he changed the subject and quickly asked: "If it is not the Quantum Fund, then who might have initiated the signal to attack? You know, if the weight is not enough, it is difficult to cause More resonance of capital!"

"Tiger Fund!" Zhong Shi waved his hand violently, and said loudly, "In 1993, the French franc faced several rounds of shocks, all of which were carried out by Tiger Fund leading international speculative funds. In the end, the central banks of France and Germany jointly intervened, and finally they were forced to Expand the fluctuation range of the franc. This battle made Julian Robertson famous in one fell swoop and became the new favorite of capital. In fact, this guy is not only very successful in macroeconomics, he is also an absolute master in stock investment. His research team can be called Luxurious, not under Soros' team. Such a guy is more than enough to replace Soros as the leader!"

  …

"Okay, now we have asked Chris Shen, the chief economist from Becky Securities, to give us an analysis of the Asian market, especially the Hong Kong market." Julian Robertson sat firmly at the farthest end of the conference table , to introduce the guests from Becky Securities standing at the other end to the others.

  This is the headquarters of New York Tiger Fund, located in the financial district south of Central Park in Manhattan Island, New York. In this small area, there are many hedge funds gathered, and it is a veritable hedge fund paradise. Tiger Fund occupies the highest floors of a building next to Financial Avenue. On the floor of their reception area, there is a huge carpet with a pattern of a tiger with its teeth and claws ready to catch its prey.

  The interior of Tiger Fund is large and concise, showing their keen and accurate investment style. From the position near the window sill, the entire lower Manhattan landscape can be seen through the glass curtain wall.

  After returning from Washington, Julian Robertson began to prepare for the attack on Hong Kong non-stop. Unlike Soros, Julian Robertson always hides behind the spotlight, so that their actions in the capital market are not exposed to the public, which gives them more room for maneuver in the capital market.

The guest invited today is Chris Shen, Chief Economist of Becky Securities. He is a middle-aged Asian man in his forties, with black hair and yellow skin. He wears a pair of gold-rimmed glasses on the bridge of his nose. The eyes exude a frightening light from time to time.

  Because Tiger Fund does not have much focus in Asia, even if they have research capabilities that are envied by the entire Wall Street, they have to rely on the research reports of these Asian investment banks that focus on the local market in the Asian market. Recently, they have frequently invited economists from Asia-focused regions to New York in order to gain valuable perspectives from their reports.

  This time Tiger Fund was almost full of elites. Participating in the meeting were partners in charge of macroeconomics and currency investment, directors of emerging markets, directors of non-ferrous financial markets, and partners who focused on the stock index futures market. In addition, there are related researchers.

"We have already noticed the Hong Kong market, and at the same time, we will send researchers to investigate related companies. I hope that Dr. Shen can give us a specific analysis of how Hong Kong is facing the Asian currency crisis recently, or the impact of the Asian currency crisis on the whole. The impact on Hong Kong's economy and even China's mainland economy." Julian Robertson said unhurriedly after the conference room quieted down.

"Attention?" Shen Mai's heart trembled. For a hedge fund manager with more than 10 billion US dollars, investment opportunities in one or a few stocks obviously would not arouse his interest, because even if these stocks performed well, It is also difficult to fundamentally change the overall performance of the fund. Large-scale fund operations require them to be able to capture a sufficiently large trend, which must be a major trend that can obtain huge profits.

Clearing his throat, Shen Mai began to say: "Specifically, the currency crisis that has spread to the entire Asian region has seriously affected Hong Kong's export trade. Judging from the export data in June, the data of Hong Kong's exports to other countries has increased year-on-year. However, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market as a whole has been exceptionally good, and it even reached the highest point in history. It is almost impossible for this kind of high-speed growth to be maintained through continuous capital injection in the next few decades, which is what we are extremely worried about..."

"Besides, since red chips are mostly group companies operating various businesses, investors have too high expectations for these managements, but according to our statistics, it is unrealistic to rely on these managements. In fact, they are completely It has not broken away from the rigid thinking and management mode, and within the group, there are serious infighting and decentralization..."

  As Shen Mai continued to narrate, the others either bowed their heads in contemplation or kept taking notes. Everyone quickly absorbed Shen Mai's analysis. Obviously, this was a rare opportunity to understand the Hong Kong market.

"In short, we believe that there is a huge bubble in the Hong Kong stock market, and the burst of this bubble is just around the corner. This burst is not only due to the irrational investment psychology inside, but also due to the economic downturn in the entire Asian region. Although the Hong Kong government He has announced to defend Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system over and over again, but based on the consideration of the overall environment, such a statement does not give much confidence to the market." After speaking eloquently for half an hour, Shen Mai finally ended his long speech v.

   Fortunately, this time the Tiger Fund researchers did not interrupt halfway. Reports of this kind of discussion are usually interrupted frequently, and then various sharp topics will be brought up one after another, but the atmosphere of the whole meeting today is quite harmonious, and I don’t know if there is any restraint in Tiger Fund. .

Then came the question and answer session. The researchers of the Tiger Fund only asked a few trivial questions, and the director in charge of emerging markets, Robert Satron, accompanied Shen Mai to chat, and the others quickly withdrew from the conference room, also I don't know what to do.

  Shen Mai didn't change his face, and while talking and laughing with Robert, he secretly muttered in his heart: Could it be that I have reservations about my identity as an Asian? Even though he thought so, he still chatted with Robert very patiently.

   "We have shorted the Japanese market. Since 1990, until now, these sell orders are still in place." Robert Citron said casually.

"What?" Although he thought it was a small talk, Shen Mai was indeed shocked by the seemingly unintentional news, "It has been seven years since the Japanese bubble burst, and the Nikkei index's highest point of 39,000 points Up to the current 16,000 points, the entire Nikkei index has fallen by more than 60%, and you have not closed your positions to this extent, which is beyond imagination!"

"Our work is based on the accurate judgment of the macro economy and the meticulous research of the micro enterprise. My colleagues and I are extremely confident in this, and the facts have proved that our judgment is correct." Robert said with a look on his face. Said proudly.

   "Then for this survey of the Hong Kong market, do you intend to replicate the scene of the Japanese bubble collapse or the Southeast Asian currency crisis?" After calming down, Shen Mai tentatively asked.

  (end of this chapter)