Chapter 271 Two Indicators

"Hong Kong's market is relatively complicated, and we haven't figured out how to operate it in the short term. However, there is a serious bubble in the stock market, which is especially serious in the increasingly severe Southeast Asian economy. Maybe we will short some stocks and Index futures, hoping to eliminate the bubble in the Hong Kong stock market, and then find companies with long-term growth and stable income in it. After all, China’s economic growth is obvious to all. We pay close attention to emerging markets, and the economic growth of regions like China is naturally impossible miss!"

  Shen Mai narrated Robert Cetron's original words word by word to Zhong Shi who was sitting across from him, with a sarcastic look on his face, clearly not believing the words of this Tiger Fund director who was in charge of emerging markets.

   "That's all?" After listening, Zhong Shi's expression didn't change at all, and he asked back unusually calmly.

"That's it!" Shen Mai nodded, then thought for a while, and said, "According to my judgment, they didn't disclose the key information at all. It's no wonder, after all, I am not their insider. But I have It feels like it’s definitely not as simple as they say for hedge funds to investigate Hong Kong’s macroeconomy on such a large scale!”

"Not bad!" Zhong Shi nodded, agreeing, "Tiger Fund currently has a fund management scale of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars. Although the exact figure is unclear, according to my estimation, it is at least more than 15 billion U.S. dollars. Even if half of the funds are used, it is an astronomical figure. It is unlikely that this part of the funds will be directly invested in the Hang Seng market, and they will not give up attacking Hong Kong's exchange rate system."

"Huh?" Hearing this, Shen Mai's heart tightened, his face turned blue, and he hurriedly asked, "But the Financial Management Bureau has announced the foreign exchange reserves, including the land fund, which has a total of nearly 100 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves. This is currently the largest number in the region. But if hedge funds really want to attack, can the Hong Kong government really defend it?"

"If you can't keep it, you have to keep it!" Zhong Shi gave him a deep look, "You also know Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Under such circumstances, the Hong Kong dollar has no possibility of devaluation at all, and the mainland government cannot sit idly by. Don’t care. Don’t worry, the international speculative capital is not as invincible as the current market shows. It's related to their domestic economic situation."

"There is no problem with the fundamentals of Hong Kong's economy. The most important thing is that Hong Kong is a free port. Although its industrial base is a bit weak, its economy is supported by real estate, tourism and import and export trade. In contrast, trade may be affected. , I am afraid that there will not be much impact on tourism, but the real estate industry may be hit hard."

   "Not yet, but in the near future, I am afraid they will pay attention to two important indicators, namely the number of people visiting Hong Kong and the overdraft rate of investors."

"Oh?" Shen Mai's complexion changed several times in a row, and finally he couldn't hold back the doubts in his heart, and couldn't help asking, "The indicator of the number of tourists in Hong Kong is one of the dozen or so indicators that need to be observed to track Hong Kong's economy and market. First, it is not too prominent. Tiger Fund should not pay too much attention to this indicator, right? In addition, although the investor overdraft ratio (which can be understood as the degree of leverage) can reflect the degree of excitement in the stock market, this indicator is not available in Hong Kong. Public statistics, and, for a hedge fund, is this indicator not very useful?"

"For now, it may not be very effective, but when the stock market falls and interest rates rise, the role of this indicator will become more prominent. You must know that when the bubble bursts, this indicator will drop rapidly, and the leverage effect is far greater than imagined even fiercer.” Zhong Shi shook his head disapprovingly, “As for the number of people traveling to Hong Kong, it is directly related to Hong Kong’s foreign exchange income, and foreign exchange income is the raw material for currency issuance by the Hong Kong authorities. In addition, the number of people traveling in Hong Kong can also be speculated It shows trends in retail consumption, which is a leading indicator of the economy."

  Due to the weak manufacturing base in Hong Kong, indexes like PMI do not play a big role in predicting economic development. Most economic indicators are reflected in the three major industries of import and export trade, real estate and tourism.

After listening to Zhong Shi's explanation, Shen Mai thought for a while, and then sincerely admired, "Zhong Sheng, you are indeed a genius in the investment world, you can think of such correlation logic, at least I didn't Instantly realized."

Zhong Shi laughed, then straightened his face, and said seriously: "I already have some understanding of their offensive methods, thanks to your intelligence. After returning, we must keep in touch with the United States at all times. Be careful."

Then Zhong Shi thought about it, and then said: "Your behavior is not selling commercial secrets. In fact, everyone knows these things, but no one has said it. Moreover, what you are doing now is benefiting the country. Limin's behavior, even if it is finally discovered, can still come to our fund to do things."

  As soon as he heard Zhong Shi make such a promise, Shen Mai showed surprise and surprise on his face. What is Tianyu Fund? It is no exaggeration to say that it is a big crocodile in the hedge fund industry, even a hedge fund that is not inferior to Tiger Fund and Quantum Fund. If you can work in this kind of institution, it doesn't matter if you are cast aside by the whole industry.

  …

After Shen Mai's figure completely disappeared outside the Tianyu Fund, Andrew quietly walked in front of Zhong Shi, with an excited expression on his face, and asked: "Zhong Sheng, you have frequently met with the chief economists of major brokerage firms recently. Home, do you want to make a big move?"

   "There is no major action, but I have a grasp of the movement of the United States, which is the most precious!" Zhong Shi smiled slightly, and returned to his office without turning his head.

  Andrew looked at the back of Zhong Shi, and then glanced in the direction of Shen Mai's departure. His mouth squirmed for a long time, but he didn't say anything in the end, but he had a thoughtful expression on his face.

  Different from Zhong Shi and others, Andrew believed that this was purely a financial storm, and did not take into account the deep-seated things. After all, he grew up in the UK, and he doesn't have much experience of the mutual defense between Asian countries and the "conspiracy theories" flying around.

  Because of this, Zhong Shi dared to keep him by his side with confidence.

Shen Mai and others are a move made by Zhong Shi a few years ago. First, they use the relationship of brokers to establish good relations with these people, and then use the opening of funds to them to attract them to disclose more information, and finally achieve the goal of turning them into The purpose of the ears. Of course, this kind of disclosure is not illegal insider trading, otherwise they would not agree to do so out of professional ethics.

   Even so, Tianyu Fund has benefited a lot from this investment in recent years.

   Now, when international hedge funds attack Hong Kong aggressively, this pre-buried chess piece has played an extremely important role. This is due to the lack of research on Hong Kong and even the entire Asian market by funds in the US and UK markets.

  In addition to using this method to inquire about the opponent's actions, Zhong Shi also made full preparations for the companies related to his wealth. For example, let Liao Xiaohua inform Liao Chengde that he should try his best to reserve cash for a period of time in the future, so as not to cause problems in the capital chain.

As for Huade Real Estate, although it has been on the market for more than three months, the growth rate has been good, but under the instruction of Zhong Shi, Zhong Yi held several board meetings to slow down the acquisition of land in the mainland while ensuring sufficient cash flow for the group. At the same time, it announced that it would issue a three-year bond with a total of three billion Hong Kong dollars in mid-September, with a coupon rate set at 6%, slightly higher than market expectations.

This behavior of raising funds again only three months after the first new share issuance undoubtedly puzzled many investors. Before this resolution came out, minority shareholders and some institutions claimed that they would strongly attack this issue on the board of directors. For this reason, they also contacted Maxim, the manager of Tianyu Hong Kong Fund, but in the final board vote, the Zhong family and Maxim jointly suppressed many opinions, which was naturally due to Zhong Shi .

   Zhongshi’s explanation for this is: “At some point in the future, they will appreciate what I did today!”

Since then, Huade Real Estate has a total cash reserve of more than 8 billion Hong Kong dollars, and has sold a number of Hong Kong assets in July, August and September, comprehensively shifting the focus of development to overseas and overseas markets. inland.

  In addition to making corresponding preparations in the industry, Zhong Shi and Liao Chengde also threw away most of the properties they held during this period. Most of these properties were purchased seven or eight years ago, and they have basically doubled over the years. As a result, Zhong Shi has hundreds of millions of Hong Kong dollars in cash in his hands. These funds were invested in his own name. In the Hang Seng Index, it is considered a small investment.

   After racking his brains and thinking for a long time, Zhong Shi finally confirmed that there was nothing missing, so he was relieved and prepared for the upcoming financial war in October.

   "Zhong Sheng, are you free recently? My father wants to see you to discuss something." When he was about to get off work, Liao Xiaohua suddenly pushed the door in. He looked away for a long time before hesitating.

  Zhong Shi felt a little strange. Recently, due to the sale of the property, he and Liao Chengde had a lot of phone calls, but both of them were very busy and hadn't seen each other for a long time. This time when Liao Xiaohua brought the words, Zhong Shi didn't feel anything at first, but after thinking about it, he realized that every time Liao Chengde had something to do, he would come to find Zhong Shi in person, not asking someone to make an appointment. But now, Liao Chengde seemed to be taking it easy and didn't take him seriously.

  Thinking of this, Zhong Shi felt a little uncomfortable in his heart!

   Thank you book friend Xiaoxiang Yeyu from another land for voting for the monthly ticket!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)