Chapter 277 The Trip to Yanjing (3)

   Liu Hua, who lowered his head to take notes after speaking, realized something was wrong after half a day, and quickly stopped the pen in his hand, looking at the crowd strangely, his eyes full of doubts.

  Generally speaking, in this kind of forum-style meeting, the invited guests will give speeches on related topics, and then everyone will discuss the issues involved, and sometimes it is open to the media or the public. However, the nature of this meeting determined that it could not be made public, and even the content of the meeting was a bit of a semi-confidential nature, and the theme of the meeting was somewhat vague, so it was inevitable for everyone to be silent.

Liu Hua tilted his head and thought for a while, then he understood, a smile appeared on his face, and he said gently: "Everyone, because the current international hot money continues to attack the currency system in Southeast Asia, many countries, including Thailand, have successively Currency falls, and even a financial crisis is triggered by a currency crisis. Therefore, the topic of our discussion this time can be divided into three aspects: the first is whether international hot money will attack Hong Kong or even the Hong Kong dollar; the second is if they attack Hong Kong, will they How to operate; the third is how much impact it will have on the Hong Kong stock market if such an attack really happens. Of course, our discussion does not presuppose any position, and everyone can talk freely.”

  All the people present here breathed a sigh of relief. With the preset range, they can prescribe the right medicine. Sure enough, as soon as Liu Hua finished speaking, he heard a voice say unceremoniously: "Soros claimed at the World Bank's annual meeting that the currency crisis in Southeast Asia was coming to an end, and he would not attack the Hong Kong dollar. It also claimed to have defeated the hedge fund's attack on the Hong Kong dollar, and I personally concluded optimistically that the currency crisis is coming to an end and will not affect Hong Kong."

  The person who spoke was Ha Xuming, an official from the IMF. Because he was in charge of the Asian market and was of Chinese origin, he was also invited to the scope of this seminar.

"Really?" As soon as Ha Xuming's voice fell, different voices appeared immediately, "Mr. Ha, can you explain that since August, international hedge funds have frequently investigated the operating conditions of domestic red chips? According to my knowledge , In August, at least five international hedge funds sent researchers to the mainland for research.”

  The person who spoke this time was Zhong Shi's acquaintance, Shen Mai, who was also invited to this seminar. Although such research activities on listed companies are generally not announced in a big way, if interested people want to investigate, these research activities are not too big of a secret.

"This is another question!" Ha Xuming's face remained unchanged, but he changed the topic and said extremely seriously, "It's not surprising. Either they saw the prospect of rising red chips in the Hong Kong stock market, or they felt the influence of it." Bubbles. And this kind of research on listed companies just shows that hedge funds are not paying attention to the linked exchange rate system, which also proves what I said before that the currency crisis is coming to an end.”

"There is a bubble in the Hong Kong stock market? I don't agree with this statement!" As soon as he finished speaking, another different voice sounded immediately, "It is undeniable that the stock market has continued to rise for a period of time, and the Hang Seng Index has also reached a record high. Maybe some of the stocks The price is not normal, but overall the price is still in a rational position.”

  Li Weinian, works for Pictet Fund as Investment Director. Baida Fund is a local fund focusing on Hong Kong stocks. Its fund management scale has reached about 3 billion Hong Kong dollars, and its performance has continued to be stable. Especially in the past half a year, the public income has exceeded 50%, which is the only one among many open-end funds. coquettish.

"Although what you said is reasonable, it doesn't mean that bubbles don't exist!" Ha Xuming still insisted on his point of view, "And the focus of our discussion now is whether the international hedge funds will attack the Hong Kong dollar. According to my In my opinion, the International Monetary Fund will not launch an attack on Hong Kong in the short term. Starting this year, the targets of international hot money attacks are all regions or countries whose exports drive economic growth. At least I think that the Hong Kong dollar is safe until the New Taiwan dollar does not depreciate. .”

"There is no doubt that international hot money will definitely focus on Hong Kong. This is not only due to economic reasons, but also political factors." Sighing lightly, Zhong Shi finally spoke, "Although the Hong Kong government has a lot of foreign exchange reserves, far from Much more than other countries in Southeast Asia, but this kind of foreign exchange reserves cannot be fully utilized. Moreover, there are certain liquidity problems in Hong Kong’s special linked exchange rate system. International hot money can fully affect the performance of Hong Kong stocks through this. I think, this That's their real purpose."

  Zhong Shi's words immediately caught people's eyes, Liu Hua's non-stop recording pen just stopped, raised his head, stared at Zhong Shi with interest for a while, and then nodded slightly.

"Who are you? What qualifications do you have to say such a thing?" Ha Xuming became a little annoyed, stood up and pointed at Zhong Shi in a stern voice, "What's wrong with the Hong Kong dollar's linked exchange rate system? You must know that it is amplified by the multiplier effect." M2 has at least a few billion Hong Kong dollars, how can there be a liquidity crisis with this currency scale?"

  M2 is an important indicator of broad money supply, reflecting actual and potential purchasing power. It usually refers to the sum of hard currency, checking deposits and savings deposits circulating in the market.

  Liao Xiaohua, who had always respected Zhong Shi like a god, quit immediately, stood up and pointed at Ha Xuming's nose and shouted: "What the **** are you? How dare you question Zhong Sheng's judgment?"

  Seeing that the atmosphere of the discussion was out of control, Liu Hua quickly stood up, knocked on the table, and said, "Everyone calm down first, we are purely discussing, I hope everyone can restrain each other."

  Liao Xiaohua glanced at Ha Xuming resentfully, and sat down again unwillingly. Ha Xuming on the opposite side also cast a contemptuous glance at Liao Xiaohua, thinking that a **** would dare to have the audacity to attend a meeting of this level.

The scene was quiet for a minute, and finally someone started talking again. A middle-aged man in his thirties said, "I don't care whether there is a bubble in the Hong Kong stock market. However, foreign-funded institutions have already started to make waves in the Hong Kong stock market. To tell you the truth, during this period of time, the funds for short selling red chips reached billions of Hong Kong dollars.”

   Everyone hurriedly looked at the nameplate in front of the speaker, and found that this person was called Song Ling. People with active minds immediately noticed his identity, the manager of the capital market department of Xia Run Company, and the backbone of the four major Hong Kong-listed Chinese-funded companies.

   "According to your opinion?" Liu Hua asked for the first time rarely.

Song Ling, who was well versed in officialdom rules, did not dare to be careless, stood up respectfully, and said, "President Liu, according to our judgment, the main battlefield of hedge funds is not to attack the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate system, but to attack Hong Kong's stock market. They used various methods to suppress the Hang Seng Index to achieve their ulterior motives."

  Many people present curled their lips in unison. This guy has a full bureaucratic tone, and he doesn't know what his professionalism is. However, this kind of face is also a common problem of red chip management. Although they dismiss it, they will not open their mouths to criticize and offend others for nothing.

  Seeing that there was no voice of objection, Song Ling continued: "According to the instructions of the department in charge, we have launched a head-on attack on the capital shorting red chips, and we have achieved extremely brilliant results so far. According to Secretary Li and Minister Song..."

  Liu Hua coughed suddenly, stopped Song Ling's words with his eyes, and said, "There is no need to report on the results. Since you don't think that international hot money will attack the Hong Kong dollar, what is your opinion on the Hong Kong stock market?"

"There is no bubble in the entire Hong Kong stock market!" Song Ling's face turned cold, and he said righteously, "The price of red chips is determined by the market. This is the choice of shareholders, and it is also the confidence in our management, and it is also the future economic development of China mainland. An expectation. Although the currency crisis in Southeast Asia is not over yet, it is precisely because of the currency crisis in these countries that part of the capital has been diverted to mainland China. This is an affirmation of our economic situation. I believe that in the next few years, the red chip stocks Performance will give investors a feeling that they are getting their money's worth today."

   "What if international hot money attacks the Hong Kong dollar?" I have to say that Song Ling's words still have some logic, but his inferences are all based on the fact that international hot money will not attack the Hong Kong dollar. So when he finished speaking, Zhong Shi asked with great interest.

"The Hong Kong dollar will not be destroyed!" Song Ling concluded confidently, which made everyone look sideways, but he didn't feel the slightest bit about it, and said with a good feeling about himself: "Hong Kong has one of the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world , Even if it is ten quantum funds, it is impossible to shake the status of the Hong Kong dollar, so there is no need to think about it." After finishing speaking, he gave Zhong Shi a contemptuous look.

   Zhong Shi was speechless for a while.

"According to your point of view, if Hong Kong's economic fundamentals are good and there is no bubble in the stock market, there is indeed no possibility of international hot money successfully attacking the Hong Kong dollar!" Liu Hua tapped the pen in his hand, and there was no expression on his face, " I remember your point of view. Next, let’s discuss the situation where there is a bubble in the Hong Kong stock market and international hot money will attack the Hong Kong dollar.”

  Song Ling's face suddenly showed an expression of embarrassment that turned into anger. He glanced at Liu Hua with hatred, and sat down unwillingly.

Liu Hua turned a blind eye to Song Ling's eyes and continued: "The result of the recent communication with the officials of the HKMA is that even if international hot money launches an attack on the Hong Kong dollar, the HKMA has the confidence to resist their offensive. We want to maintain a prosperous Hong Kong , requires the collective wisdom and efforts of all parties, and I believe that everyone will not hide their secrets. Next, I would like to invite Mr. Zhong Yi, an economist who successfully predicted the currency crisis, to speak."

  Everyone was taken aback for a moment, and then they all cast their eyes on Zhong Yi. As the listed company that raised the most funds some time ago, Huade Real Estate really made a big splash. And Zhong Yi, who turned out to be the chairman, has become the new darling of the financial media, and everyone present is no stranger to it.

  However, this is the first time they heard that this new darling of wealth has a history of successfully predicting currency crises!

   Thanks to Demon Dragon War Ghost and Ga Geli for voting monthly!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)