Chapter 278 Trip to Yanjing (4)

Zhong Yi stood up, nodded slightly to the surroundings, and said modestly: "Hello, everyone. It may be because I happen to be in the United States that I have a very intuitive understanding of the power of international financial predators. Get away with predicting the collapse of the pound and the Mexican peso."

He humbled himself at first, then changed the topic and said unceremoniously: "First of all, we must give up illusions and stop naively thinking that Soros' so-called 'Asian currency crisis is over' is not credible. It's true. You must know that profit-seeking is the nature of capital. As long as there is profit, they will appear. This has nothing to do with morality. Secondly, Hong Kong, as an international financial center with free capital circulation, also implements a fixed exchange rate system. The region will undoubtedly receive the focus of international capital, and this has nothing to do with the fundamentals of Hong Kong's economy."

"I personally think that there is only one core issue now, that is, when will international hot money attack Hong Kong, and then how to attack Hong Kong's exchange rate market and even the capital market, and what is the logical connection between the two? I think this is what the international hot money led by hedge funds wants to find out."

"However, Hong Kong is different from other Southeast Asian regions. According to my calculations, including the land fund, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has at least US$70 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and perhaps more, which is far more than those countries in Southeast Asia that have been washed away There are more foreign exchange reserves. This has to be a realistic issue that hedge funds have to consider.”

"In addition, the relationship between the foreign exchange market and the stock market must also be considered. After all, if hedge funds cannot make profits in the foreign exchange market, they will inevitably transfer funds to the securities market. This may be part of their hedging strategy, or it may be to use Among them, the correlation is operating. After all, once the pressure on the exchange rate market is too great, the Monetary Authority is likely to raise the level of the lending rate, which will undoubtedly be a heavy blow to the stock market. At this point, the stock markets of other countries are also verified accordingly."

"Therefore, I think that in addition to paying close attention to the number of Hong Kong dollar forward contracts, we should also pay attention to the short position of the Hang Seng Index. At the same time, we should pay attention to the number of put warrants, options and even direct short selling stocks of each heavyweight stock. With corresponding vigilance, these may provide us with the next trend of international hot money.”

"Finally, I would like to remind everyone that whether the RMB is overvalued is probably already one of the issues considered by hedge funds. Especially in the case of the general depreciation of the currencies of Southeast Asian exporting countries, as the Chinese government, exports will inevitably It will be affected to a certain extent, how much will be affected by this impact, and whether it is necessary to strengthen the competitiveness of exports through RMB depreciation. This will be a key topic in the next stage. In this process, will international hot money, especially hot money, It will have flowed into the mainland through legal or illegal means, and then use the depreciation of the renminbi to achieve the purpose of shorting the renminbi, which is probably also an issue that the central bank needs to consider.”

  Although Huaxia’s capital account has not been opened to the outside world, it is particularly worth noting that the method of converting U.S. dollars into renminbi through underground banks, and then entering the mainland, and using the black market exchange rate to stir up the official renminbi exchange rate is to force the renminbi to depreciate.

  Liu Hua naturally knew this well, and nodded heavily.

   "That's basically what I want to say!" Zhong Yi said so much in one breath, took a sip from the water glass beside him, and finally concluded.

  The venue was silent for a while, and everyone was silently digesting their favorite remarks. Compared with the previous debates, Zhong Yi's remarks undoubtedly gave everyone a blow and made them think again.

   Taking advantage of the time when everyone was thinking, Zhong Shi nodded slightly towards Zhong Yi, indicating that he had spoken very well, and Zhong Yi blinked quietly.

"Mr. Zhong, please clarify two points!" After a long time, the person named Song Ling stood up and said, "First of all, what is your opinion on the New Taiwan dollar? You must know the economic model of Yizhou and the previously announced devaluation The economic models of a series of countries in Southeast Asia are very similar. If international hot money wants to attack, their first choice is the NT dollar, not the Hong Kong dollar. Secondly, although the Hong Kong stock market fluctuated to a certain extent in early September, overall Still thriving, if hedge funds choose to attack the Hong Kong stock market, why is there no movement until now? Especially when institutions such as the IMF have reached out to other countries!"

   "This guy is really annoying!" Zhong Shi said secretly in his heart, couldn't help standing up, and said loudly: "I can answer you about these two questions!"

  Song Ling glanced at Zhong Shi, and said indifferently: "In that case, I will listen with all my ears." Although the words were very polite, anyone could see the look of contempt on his face.

  Zhong Shi was furious in his heart, but he didn't show any signs of it on his face. He knew that it was useless to fight between emotions in this kind of situation, and it would only make the other party look down on him even more. Suppressing the anger in his chest, Zhong Shi said lightly: "At present, everyone's logic has fallen into a strange circle, that is, they think that the governments of certain regions will stick to the policy of fixed exchange rate system. But don't forget, if you abandon the positive side of the fixed exchange rate system If the utility is greater than the negative effects of sticking to the fixed exchange rate system, the decision-makers in these regions or countries will abandon the fixed exchange rate system without hesitation, that is, they will actively choose to abandon it. This point has been clearly stated by Soros in his Hong Kong speech At that time, they gave the Thai government the opportunity to voluntarily abandon the fixed exchange rate system, but the Thai government at that time did not do it.”

"Secondly, the Hong Kong stock market is no longer supported by the fundamentals of the economy, but by the overall environment, including various factors. Judging from my personal point of view, the current index of the Hong Kong stock market is too high. It does not reflect the real trend of the economic situation in the entire region. As for why the Hong Kong stock market is currently so high, I believe it should be due to funds supporting the market, and I think Mr. Song should be very clear about this.”

He was annoyed at Song Ling's knowingly asking, so he naturally wanted to teach him a lesson, so he unceremoniously spoke out about the mainland government's move to support the Hong Kong stock market. something.

  Regarding the abnormality of the Hong Kong stock market this month, although the people present knew that there was such a force of funds operating in the stock market, they did not know where the funds came from and what their purpose was. Now, after being pointed out by Zhong Shi in one bite, they suddenly realized.

Song Ling was furious, looked at Zhong Shi coldly for a long time, and suddenly said something that puzzled everyone: "Since Mr. Zhong is aware of the behavior of supporting the market, can I understand that Mr. Zhong is shorting the Hong Kong stock market?" A member of the group, or to put it more broadly, you and the funds behind you are planning to short the Hong Kong dollar or the Hang Seng Index?"

  In a mature capital market, it is normal to go short and long. Investors can accurately reflect the true value of listed companies in the market in the first place only through different directions. In the mainland, the government's thinking about the stock market is still stuck in the weird thinking that it can only rise but not fall. (even now)

Therefore, when Song Ling's words were uttered, people who knew the operation of the stock market in Hong Kong were very puzzled. Even a fund that purely buys and sells stocks will choose to pass the stock price when it thinks that a company's stock price is inflated. Brokers sell part of the stock short, or buy some short-selling warrants. Therefore, this kind of short-selling is common to them, and it is nothing at all.

  The expressions of those mainland economists changed drastically after hearing Song Ling's words. Although Song Ling's words are not salty or bland, there is a cognitive bias hidden in them, that is, if Zhong Shi admits this statement, he is fighting against the inland government. If it is bigger, he can even plant a sabotage The big crime of Hong Kong's prosperity and stability.

Zhong Shi gave Song Ling a cold look, curled his lips in disdain, and said, "Since you want to know, I'll tell you. According to our research conclusions, even if international hot money doesn't take any action against Hong Kong, we think that the current The Hang Seng Index is high, which means there is a bubble. But to your disappointment, the funds behind me have not even shorted a contract in the Hong Kong market. Are you satisfied with this answer?"

  Hearing Zhong Shi’s words, most people’s faces were puzzled again. Since the conclusion of the research is that there is a bubble in Hong Kong stocks, why not short it? Only a few people showed thoughtful expressions on their faces.

Seeing that Zhong Shi had dispelled his trap, Song Ling rolled his eyes and came up with another plan, saying: "Mr. Zhong's words are confusing again, since you think there is a bubble in the Hong Kong stock market, why don't you take action? Could it be that you are the pawns of some international hot money, and you are dedicated to building momentum for them?"

Although there is nothing wrong with short selling or building momentum, but in the current general environment, these two behaviors are undoubtedly on the opposite side of some people. At least in terms of influence, this kind of behavior is very bad, especially in Hang Seng In the case of a sharp drop in the index, this kind of behavior may lead to negative consequences, which is the so-called social impact.

Zhong Shi smiled slightly, and was really tired of Song Ling's repeated "intentional crimes", and said, "No, Mr. Song, your guess is completely wrong. Although we pay attention to the Hong Kong market, we are not going to I just intervene in the Hong Kong market, but I’m waiting for a suitable time. As for when, I’m afraid it’s hard to tell. In short, based on your judgment and analysis of the economic situation, you won’t be able to guess what I’m going to do! "

  Song Ling was furious, gave Zhong Shi a hard look, and sat down unwillingly.

  In the following time, both of them agreed not to speak again, and the seminar ended the morning discussion in a strange atmosphere.

   Thanks to book friend Shihuangtian for voting for the monthly ticket! Thanks for the tip that made me think! Thank you Zebra Center for your review vote! Thank you to the book friends who have supported this book for a long time!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)