Chapter 495 Sudden Change of Situation (2)

  The so-called warm winter naturally refers to a warm winter.

After entering the winter, the cold air from the north of Canada enters the United States from the long US-Canada border, including Chicago, Boston, New York and other big cities. At this time, the demand for natural gas, one of the heating energy sources, will naturally double, and the price will also rise accordingly.

   In the same way, when the winter is not so cold, the demand for natural gas will naturally not be so strong, and according to the theory of demand, although its price will rise, there is definitely no way to compare it with the price in colder winter.

Based on the analysis and judgment of the meteorological data over the years, Conrad came to the conclusion in astonishment that the possibility of a warm winter this year is very high, and his professional acumen made him immediately realize that if it was a warm winter, in September Between March and October, March and April next year, this kind of seasonal turning point will not be so dramatic, and the current difference between the two will be greatly reduced, so...

  Thinking of this, Conrad didn't dare to think about it anymore, he just felt his heart beating uncontrollably. In order to hide his shock, he picked up the cup in front of him and took a sip. Who doesn't want to drink too fast, he was choked the next moment, and accidentally spilled the coffee on his white shirt. He quickly took out a tissue to wipe it off. , It was a flurry again.

   "If it's really a mild winter, wouldn't we have a chance of success?"

  After a lot of hard work, Conrad finally cleaned up the stains on his chest. Of course, only the juice was washed away, and there was still a bowl-sized stain on the shirt. But at this time, he didn't care too much, so he hurriedly asked John Arnold, hoping to clarify the doubts in his heart.

   “Just yesterday, I had a meeting with a meteorologist.”

John Arnold smiled, took out the cigar box from the desk, took out one and sniffed it under the tip of his nose, his face immediately revealed a look of intoxication, and then took out the shiny silver scissors, carefully cut off the part, I lit a special match and roasted it slowly for a while on the flame ignited by sulfur to let the aroma of the cigar fully play out, and then I took a puff with satisfaction.

Watching Arnold finish all these slowly, Conrad felt as uncomfortable as a cat scratching. He really wanted to know what the next paragraph Arnold said, but he didn't dare to disturb the boss enjoying the cigar, so he could only silently waiting.

"This is a senior NASA meteorologist who has been tracking the movement of cold air for 20 years. I have formed a good relationship with him when I was in Enron. It is not an exaggeration to say that we are old friends. At present In NASA, he is the director of the climate change department, and he has at least three satellites on hand to track climate change in North America around the clock."

After waiting for a few more minutes, Arnold finally spoke again, explaining the meteorologist's background, and then shifted the topic to the real point, "The hurricane situation this summer is the result of their simulation through the latest climate model. It turns out that the accuracy rate is quite high. And another of their latest weather models also gave the conclusion that this year is very likely to be a warm winter, and the probability is quite high, a full 89.24%. "

"It is because of the support of these data that I dare to boldly fight against the flowers. Before that, he has revealed that the probability of this year's warm winter is about 50%. It’s just that the momentum of never-withering flowers was too fierce at that time, so I could only act in a low-key manner. But now everything is different, with the support of data, and another force entangled with the other party, it has attracted most of them. firepower, so I can confidently and boldly go short.”

After exhaling a puff of choking smoke, Arnold finally relaxed completely. The smile on his face can be seen from anyone's heart. Naturally, this kind of relaxation is only when the winning ticket is in hand. Performance.

   "I didn't expect the boss to do so many things in private. No wonder he can stand in the natural gas market for a long time." After hearing this, Conrad's expression changed, but he was secretly speculating in his heart. Previously, his former owner, Muyan Fund, only hired a few meteorologists as outsourced consultants, consulted their opinions when necessary, and usually put them on the high list, not taking them seriously at all. And when he arrived at the Everlasting Flower Fund, he was surprised to find that the research department of this fund covers almost every corner of the natural gas industry, including the upstream mining industry, engineering technology, downstream pipeline transportation, destination and other fields. There are dedicated researchers, and they are or have been the top in this field, and even the meteorological consultants are active NASA personnel.

"I have a question now, why does the other party know these things? You must know that I have spent a lot of effort to obtain these things. I believe that no one else can do such detailed research except me, even if it is Even Bond Hunter, who is not withered, can't, but why can Hu?"

  After relaxing for a while, Arnold suddenly thought of something, sat up straight again, and said with a frown, as if he was asking himself, or asking Conrad.

"This…"

After pondering for a moment, Conrad said uncertainly: "Did they judge it from the fundamentals? Or did they learn from an investor that the position of the Evergreen Fund is too large? You must know when the position When it is too big, it is easy to become the target of others."

"Maybe!" Arnold thought and thought, but still couldn't come up with a convincing answer, but soon he figured it out, and then laughed dumbly, "Anyway, now I'm in the same camp as him, And the target is the same, so why care so much about what the other party thinks. Let’s analyze all of this after the market situation is completely clear!”

  Conrad thought for a while, then nodded silently.

  …

   "Damn it, who the **** is this, taking advantage of this moment to suppress the price of the spot, it's like sticking a knife in my ribs!"

  In the office in Calgary, not long after the close, traders gathered in that small office again, but this time the atmosphere was completely different. In the past day, while all the gains made by the natural gas contract in the previous trading day were swallowed up, they also fell slightly, which means that the traders of the permanent flower fund have wasted a lot of effort.

The problem is not limited to this, they also found an opponent who was specifically against them in the heavy position month, and after two or three trading days of fierce fighting, those who did not wither were stunned to find that the opponent's financial strength was not as strong as No less than them, and even had the upper hand for a time, if it wasn't for Bond Hunter's decisive decision to give up the guard for nearly a month, I'm afraid their current losses would have expanded a lot.

  Yes, the hedge position of the Evergreen Fund has already suffered losses.

And when they were trying their best to guard their positions in the far month, another unknown force quietly appeared on the near-month contract, almost desperately suppressing the price of natural gas futures, which is already in a tight spot at present. Hua Jin kicked him hard again, which is why Bond Hunter yelled loudly almost out of composure.

   Naturally, no one can answer his question. The traders looked at each other in blank dismay, not even daring to take a breath. It was clear that this was not the time to talk.

After cursing for five full minutes, Bond Hunter regained his composure after sweeping away the depression in his chest, and said to a group of traders with drooping heads: "Okay, buddy! Brace yourself, folks. We're not doing much so far, are we?"

   These words finally cheered up everyone a little bit. Of course, a large part of the reason was because of Bond Hunter's anger.

"It was indeed my negligence this time. I didn't expect such a strong opponent to appear at this time!" Lighting up a Marlboro, Bond Hunter said to himself, "But you can rest assured, similar Haven’t we experienced less? Among other things, we have also experienced losses of one billion dollars, but haven’t we survived?”

"Although the current situation is not good for us, as long as we defeat the opponents in the distant months, we will have a lot of time left to deal with the opponents in the near months. But just in case, our positions in the near months need to Gradually reduce to avoid further losses."

In just these two days, the Evergreen Fund has placed more than 200 million US dollars in deposits on the far month arbitrage contract. If the newly opened position is normal, it will be enough to widen the contract price difference between the two months. But the situation is fundamentally different now. The other party does not show any weakness at all. He almost accepts as many new positions as he opens. There is no sign of running out of funds at all. This makes Bond Hunter feel a little guilty.

   But he still has great confidence in the final victory.

Although he just received 1 billion US dollars of funds from the headquarters, in the past two days, Hunter has spent more than 300 million US dollars on positions from the near month to the far month. This speed even made him feel astonished. , although part of it is entered into the position as an additional margin for maintaining the position, which can be withdrawn at any time.

"In addition, let people release the wind in the market, saying that this year's winter will come very early, and it will be very cold, especially because of that...El Niño phenomenon, yes, this is the phenomenon that causes the ozone layer in the atmosphere to be destroyed. In short, the more esoteric it is, the more technical terms you use, the better.”

"Also, let's release the news again. It is said that there is a problem with the pressure of the natural gas pipeline in Tennessee. It is suspected that there is a leak in the natural gas pipeline somewhere. Yes, it is such rumors. God, if at this time, which city How good it would be if the natural gas pipeline exploded!"

After patting his head, Bond Hunter quickly thought of several rumors that might disturb the market price after a moment of contemplation. Although these rumors will be confirmed quickly, he can only go to the doctor indiscriminately at this time. .

   But what he said at the end was too unbelievable. Although he said it casually, the other traders were obviously taken aback. Yes, if there is news of an explosion in a certain natural gas pipeline or even a certain natural gas company, it will definitely have a severe impact on the market, but how dare they really do such a thing?

Seeing everyone's uneasy faces, Bond Hunter forced a smile and said, "Relax, guys, I don't dare to do this, I just hope that this happens at this time. Alright, guys, Do as you told me just now, this time we must let our opponents see how powerful we are!"

  Everyone nodded in unison, and quickly went to work.

It's just that no one expected that when these traders released false news through their own channels, a professional weather magazine published the news that this year is very likely to be a warm winter on the second day, and it will soon be overwhelmed. The Never Withered Flower Fund entered the abyss of eternal doom.

   Thanks to book friends cpower and Xiaoqi Civilization Miracle for voting monthly!

  

  

  (end of this chapter)